ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[bigGbear]

a jog to the west again a hugh jog????????????



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

mostly an illusion - note the change in the symmetry of the CDO.

[SunnyThoughts]

[TheBurn]

[ROCK]

It does seem to appear Earl may keep pushing more west than the next forecast point. Perhaps another shift?

really hard to tell....it could correct itself in the next few turns...the ridge hes riding on it not smooth..alot of peaks and valleys if you will.....if it keeps going this way for a few hours hour or so then I would start to get concerned for the EC...

[emeraldislencguy]

I am not in a panic mode--but I am going out in the am and get refresh my hurricane supplies and may get the metel sotrm shutters ready to go over the glass windows at the business--but I must admit wth each advisory I am getting more concerned- a cat 3 or cat 4 storm would really hurt our beach.
Lots of tourists are now asking questions if they should stay or leave--in fact one from ohio told me toniight that they would not leave because it cant be worse than a tornado.

[Aric Dunn]

it is just amazing to see an ERC take place within radar range... very rare and I have only seen it once before and it never really finished since it made landfall..

aric it made a westward jog/wobble again what do you think???????

its hard to tell exactly but earl does not seem to want to do what its supposed to do .. lol I have maintained that the weakness is not as prevalent as most and the track may be more gradual than forecast.. could wrong of course but I am sort of looking around the synoptics wondering what is really going to turn this.. oh well.

[StormGuy]

I am not in a panic mode--but I am going out in the am and get refresh my hurricane supplies and may get the metel sotrm shutters ready to go over the glass windows at the business--but I must admit wth each advisory I am getting more concerned- a cat 3 or cat 4 storm would really hurt our beach.
Lots of tourists are now asking questions if they should stay or leave--in fact one from ohio told me toniight that they would not leave because it cant be worse than a tornado.

Nothing wrong with being prepared for the worst.

[boca]

Here's a wobble note. Earl looks like its moving due west.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html

[ROCK]

it is just amazing to see an ERC take place within radar range... very rare and I have only seen it once before and it never really finished since it made landfall..

aric it made a westward jog/wobble again what do you think???????

its hard to tell exactly but earl does not seem to want to do what its supposed to do .. lol I have maintained that the weakness is not as prevalent as most and the track may be more gradual than forecast.. could wrong of course but I am sort of looking around the synoptics wondering what is really going to turn this.. oh well.

agree...current steering....been a long time since I had to click on the sub 940mb panel...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm6.html

[UpTheCreek]

I am not in a panic mode--but I am going out in the am and get refresh my hurricane supplies and may get the metel sotrm shutters ready to go over the glass windows at the business--but I must admit wth each advisory I am getting more concerned- a cat 3 or cat 4 storm would really hurt our beach.
Lots of tourists are now asking questions if they should stay or leave--in fact one from ohio told me toniight that they would not leave because it cant be worse than a tornado.

I'm concerned too! It looks dicey for our area.

Next time someone compares a tornado to a cat 4 hurricane, ask him if that tornado lasted all day and how much flooding it caused! Might also ask him if he had a chance to know in advance when a tornado was going to hit him, would he go to another spot to avoid it? Tornadoes are awful things, mostly because you have almost zero chance of avoiding it!

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

I will be starting preps as much as possible tomorrow not much I can do until wednesday when I get home. I am currently about 2 hours away from the Maine Coast but I live in Portland. I am a trained Redcross Disaster relief Volunteer but haven't had the chance to put my training to use yet so tomorrow I will be calling my home chapter and letting them know I will be available should they decide to open any shelters in Portland.

Other then that I am just keeping an eye on Earl and hoping for the best for all of us along the EC!

[UpTheCreek]

I will be starting preps as much as possible tomorrow not much I can do until wednesday when I get home. I am currently about 2 hours away from the Maine Coast but I live in Portland. I am a trained Redcross Disaster relief Volunteer but haven't had the chance to put my training to use yet so tomorrow I will be calling my home chapter and letting them know I will be available should they decide to open any shelters in Portland.

Other then that I am just keeping an eye on Earl and hoping for the best for all of us along the EC!

Good luck, good on you for your volunteering efforts. Here's hoping you don't have to use it.

[fox]

Hey everyone,

I live in St. John's, Newfoundland and am travailing to Halifax, Nova Scotia Saturday Morning. Do you think Earl will cause any real problems in Nova Scotia. I was there for Jaun and it was hell. Hoping to not run into this again...

Thanks

[CrazyC83]

Can someone explain to me what's happening to the NW quadrant of Earl? It looks like it's hitting a brick wall in this water vapor loop. Is the wall of dry air doing that to it? What kind of effect can that dry air have on Earl?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

It might weaken Earl if it can get entrained into the storm.

[ConvergenceZone]

Here's a wobble note. Earl looks like its moving due west.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html

Well, as WXMAN pointed out a little bit ago, wobbles are meaningless unless they continue for about a 6 hour span. It's expected to stairstep and wobble....

[ozonepete]

Gotta get to bed, but just wanted to say that you guys who posted that you don't see an ERC coming, I have to agree. That eye is remaining remarkably stable and there are currently no signs of a new outer eyewall forming. So for at least the next 6-12 hours I don't see it happening. That's also good news, because it should keep Earl at its current strength. An ERC could be the final move that could push it up to a cat 5.

[Dean4Storms]

This is interesting, watch Earl crank up, Fiona right behind starting to crank up with impressive size and moisture and then what looks to be future Gaston beginning to take shape just off Africa!

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Hey everyone,

I live in St. John's, Newfoundland and am travailing to Halifax, Nova Scotia Saturday Morning. Do you think Earl will cause any real problems in Nova Scotia. I was there for Jaun and it was hell. Hoping to not run into this again...

Thanks

If you didn't like what Juan did, I'd stay away. This one looks like it could be just as bad. The NHC track calls for Earl to make landfall near Halifax, and the NHC is rather good track wise imo.

[UpTheCreek]

Can someone explain to me what's happening to the NW quadrant of Earl? It looks like it's hitting a brick wall in this water vapor loop. Is the wall of dry air doing that to it? What kind of effect can that dry air have on Earl?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

It might weaken Earl if it can get entrained into the storm.

What's the other scenario? Would Earl just push it out of his way, so to speak? It just looks to me and my very novice eye that the dry air field looks so huge and unsurmountable!

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Can someone explain to me what's happening to the NW quadrant of Earl? It looks like it's hitting a brick wall in this water vapor loop. Is the wall of dry air doing that to it? What kind of effect can that dry air have on Earl?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

It might weaken Earl if it can get entrained into the storm.

What's the other scenario? Would Earl just push it out of his way, so to speak? It just looks to me and my very novice eye that the dry air field looks so huge and unsurmountable!

Yeah the Met out of NBC Boston has been mentioning the dry air pushing down from the North into the Bahamas all day. Should be interesting to see what effect it has on our friend Earl....