ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[HurricaneQueen]

After being glued here for days, it's time for this tired chick to get some sleep. Before I go I do have a question about the 11 advisories for both Earl & Fiona. Maybe because my eyes are crossing, I have missed them.

Since I don't have the advantage of seeing the coordinates for Earl, the following statement may be incorrect but I find it oddly curious that Earl is still staying below 20N after all this time. (Don't read into this-it's just an observation).

I urge everyone to try to follow my lead and get as much sleep as you can-the next few days will be exhausting for those along the EC.

Goodnight,
Lynn

P.S. just found the advisory on Wunderground. Earl is still at 19.9 N, 65.8 W moving WNW 13 mph. The pressure is 938 with top winds at 135 gusting to 160. We certainly miss Cycloneye when he is MIA!!! Good luck, Luis.

[Aric Dunn]

Although it has slowed down some it is still moving rather briskly..and this motion is going to ( as we have already seen) cause a more drawn out turn. its a similar effect to when you try to move a large fast moving object... it just does not take very sharp turns.. as we have seen... the westward shift in the forecast and models is due to the continued quick motion of earl. this should continue to allow earl to be west of the forecast positions. It is still in the realm of possibility of a NC landfall especially if it continues to trend westward. other than that I do not wish to speculate on other option that im thinking of as they are so far from the model consensus that they bother me..lol

[WeatherGuesser]

[StormGuy]

The next NOGAPS and Euro updates are at 2AM right?

[TropicalWXMA]

SUMMARY OF 100 AM AST...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 66.2W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES

[Aric Dunn]

The next NOGAPS and Euro updates are at 2AM right?

its not finished yet but here is the nogaps.. just keep reloading..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[BigB0882]

Although it has slowed down some it is still moving rather briskly..and this motion is going to ( as we have already seen) cause a more drawn out turn. its a similar effect to when you try to move a large fast moving object... it just does not take very sharp turns.. as we have seen... the westward shift in the forecast and models is due to the continued quick motion of earl. this should continue to allow earl to be west of the forecast positions. It is still in the realm of possibility of a NC landfall especially if it continues to trend westward. other than that I do not wish to speculate on other option that im thinking of as they are so far from the model consensus that they bother me..lol

Oh come on, spill it! I think a lot of people here have a lot of respect for your thoughts and I know I would love to hear any ideas you have, even if you think it is a long shot. PM me if you don't want to post it, I would love to know.

[StormGuy]

The next NOGAPS and Euro updates are at 2AM right?

its not finished yet but here is the nogaps.. just keep reloading..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Thank You! I don't like how close it's taking it to NC.

[SunnyThoughts]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

Still west to westnorthwestish

[StormGuy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

Still west to westnorthwestish

At least that last wobble to the west stopped. Looks to me like he's back to a WNW motion again.

[Time_Zone]

Lol...looks like it won't even be a hurricane by time it gets here....im done worrying about it now.

[cheezyWXguy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

Still west to westnorthwestish

At least that last wobble to the west stopped. Looks to me like he's back to a NNW motion again.

Hahah NNW?? are you sure you dont mean WNW? This thing's not even forecast to go nnw for another 36 hours or so, and at this rate, who knows how long it will really be before it starts moving in that direction...

[bighaben]

The next NOGAPS and Euro updates are at 2AM right?

its not finished yet but here is the nogaps.. just keep reloading..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Thank You! I don't like how close it's taking it to NC.

It almost certainty comes close enough for the eyewall to hit the cape there. This is something everyone on the east coast needs to watching. And no going in the water this labor day weekend either.

[StormGuy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

Still west to westnorthwestish

At least that last wobble to the west stopped. Looks to me like he's back to a NNW motion again.

Hahah NNW?? are you sure you dont mean WNW? This thing's not even forecast to go nnw for another 36 hours or so, and at this rate, who knows how long it will really be before it starts moving in that direction...

I'm sorry, I did mean WNW. lol I need to get some sleep!!!

[Scorpion]

Pressure dropping but winds decreasing it seems... very strange.

[Aric Dunn]

I just calculated the last 2 hours .. and its wnw.. at 285..

[SunnyThoughts]

929.9 according to recon some flagged 928's in there as well

[StormGuy]

I just calculated the last 2 hours .. and its wnw.. at 285..

Hmmm. Wasn't it at 290 yesterday? Of course, that's just over a 2 hour period so we'll see what happens in the upcoming hours. Hopefully, I'll be asleep for most of them.

[T'Bonz]

OK, how in the heck can the NHC say a storm is moving WNW when in the past two hours, it moved WEST (19.9 at 11 PM, same at 1 AM. 65.8 at 11, 66.2 at 1)?

[bahamaswx]

Because it's only 2 hours, and only a jog. Looks to be gaining latitude again anyway.