EPAC : EX TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA

[NONAME]

If you look at the current satellite loop it looks like Agatha is making landfall.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

Up to 40kts and pressure down to 1000 mbs.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

EP, 01, 2010052918, , BEST, 0, 137N, 926W, 40, 1000, TS

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 291840
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1840 UTC SAT MAY 29 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE AGATHA (EP012010) 20100529 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100529 1800 100530 0600 100530 1800 100531 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.7N 92.6W 14.6N 91.6W 15.6N 90.9W 16.8N 90.4W
BAMD 13.7N 92.6W 14.6N 91.7W 16.0N 91.0W 17.7N 90.3W
BAMM 13.7N 92.6W 14.6N 91.6W 15.7N 90.9W 17.0N 90.6W
LBAR 13.7N 92.6W 14.6N 91.5W 16.0N 90.7W 18.0N 89.9W
SHIP 40KTS 48KTS 51KTS 54KTS
DSHP 40KTS 48KTS 37KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100531 1800 100601 1800 100602 1800 100603 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.1N 90.1W 19.7N 90.0W 20.8N 90.0W 22.7N 89.7W
BAMD 19.8N 89.1W 23.7N 84.3W 25.2N 76.7W 23.8N 69.5W
BAMM 18.6N 90.3W 21.6N 88.7W 24.2N 86.2W 27.8N 82.0W
LBAR 20.2N 89.0W 24.7N 85.3W 26.6N 78.6W 26.5N 71.7W
SHIP 54KTS 59KTS 59KTS 64KTS
DSHP 28KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.7N LONCUR = 92.6W DIRCUR = 55DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 13.0N LONM12 = 93.6W DIRM12 = 63DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 12.8N LONM24 = 94.4W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 70NM RD34SE = 70NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 60NM

[KWT]

If you look at the current satellite loop it looks like Agatha is making landfall.

Nah its still offshore, just remember the system is lopsided somewhat which means the center of circulation is a closer to the SW portion of the convection rather then totally tucked in with the convection...though it has improved as the day has gone on in that respect, so its clearly in the process of strengthening still.

40kts now...

[Macrocane]

Though the center of Agatha is miles away from here we're experiencing strong wind gusts, I have just recorded this video about 30 minutes ago, at the end you can see how a tree just fell down in my yard.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXvuUSkdoIc

[Hurricane Andrew]

Ok. to clear up what i said about the NHC<i looked at a map where the center was relitive to sattilite data and got a little mixed up. Sorry for that.

Anyway, Does anyone think it might still make the cross over?

Also,tonight,when the Convection heats up again, this thing is gonna explode!

(what does IMHO mean? IMO is In My Opinion)

[weatherSnoop]

Ok. to clear up what i said about the NHC<i looked at a map where the center was relitive to sattilite data and got a little mixed up. Sorry for that.

Anyway, Does anyone think it might still make the cross over?

Also,tonight,when the Convection heats up again, this thing is gonna explode!

(what does IMHO mean? IMO is In My Opinion)

In my HUMBLE opinion

[Hurricane Andrew]

Ok. to clear up what i said about the NHC<i looked at a map where the center was relitive to sattilite data and got a little mixed up. Sorry for that.

Anyway, Does anyone think it might still make the cross over?

Also,tonight,when the Convection heats up again, this thing is gonna explode!

(what does IMHO mean? IMO is In My Opinion)

In my HUMBLE opinion

Ok. Thanks.

The convection has really died down!

[I-wall]

Though the center of Agatha is miles away from here we're experiencing strong wind gusts, I have just recorded this video about 30 minutes ago, at the end you can see how a tree just fell down in my yard.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXvuUSkdoIc

Doesnt look like there is much wind. What made the tree fall? Anyway, thanks for posting the video

[brunota2003]

I would imagine, with so much rainfall, the winds wouldn't have to be very strong to topple a weak rooted or dead tree.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Based on the info i haved reseaved and the following...Warm water the storm is over...preoximity to land...this is my 4PM forcast.

0 Hours-TS-40MPH
6 Hours-TS-50MPH
12 Hours-TS-60MPH
24 Hours-TS-65MPH,making landfall
48 Hours-TS-45MPH,inland
72 Hours-TD-30MPH,inland
96 Hours-TD-25MPH,inland
120 Hours-TD-25MP,emerging into the Carribean

[cycloneye]

WTPZ21 KNHC 292032
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM AGATHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012010
2100 UTC SAT MAY 29 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...ALL OF
GUATEMALA...AND ALL OF EL SALVADOR FROM BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE EL SALVADOR-HONDURAS BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 92.4W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 70SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 92.4W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 92.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.1N 91.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.5N 91.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 14.9N 90.8W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 15.2N 90.8W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 92.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN


WTPZ31 KNHC 292033
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM AGATHA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012010
200 PM PDT SAT MAY 29 2010

...AGATHA MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD GUATEMALA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS AFFECTING THE WARNING AREA AND
SPREADING INLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 92.4W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM...S OF TAPACHULA MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM...W OF PUERTO DE SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...ALL OF
GUATEMALA...AND ALL OF EL SALVADOR FROM BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE EL SALVADOR-HONDURAS BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM AGATHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST. AGATHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...AGATHA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN OR CENTRAL COAST OF GUATEMALA LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT BEFORE AGATHA
MAKES LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE PACIFIC
COASTS OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO LATER THIS EVENING. ALL
PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED.

RAINFALL...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO...GUATEMALA...AND MUCH OF EL SALVADOR...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 30 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN

[lester]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 292034
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012010
200 PM PDT SAT MAY 29 2010

ALTHOUGH VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE SOME
EROSION OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION...MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
BANDING FEATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT BASED ON A
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND
THE TIGHTER BANDING FEATURES NOTED IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/06 KT...WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE
SLOW. AGATHA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING IN A NORTHEASTWARD OR
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT LIES
ALONG 12N LATITUDE. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE
GUATEMALAN COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER LANDFALL...THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO DECOUPLE FROM THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATION...WITH THE LATTER CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OR THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...TVCN.

THERE IS STILL SOME ROOM FOR SLIGHT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE
AGATHA MAKES LANDFALL...BUT THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IS QUICKLY
CLOSING NOW DUE TO THE FASTER FORWARD SPEED. AFTER LANDFALL...RAPID
WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...VERY MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF AGATHA WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT EVEN AFTER THE SYSTEM CEASES TO
EXIST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

DUE TO THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED AND INTERACTION WITH HIGH TERRAIN...
THE MAIN IMPACT FROM AGATHA WILL BE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...AND AS FAR
INLAND AS HONDURAS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 13.9N 92.4W 40 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 14.1N 91.9W 45 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 14.5N 91.2W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 31/0600Z 14.9N 90.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
48HR VT 31/1800Z 15.2N 90.8W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
72HR VT 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

[Macrocane]

I would imagine, with so much rainfall, the winds wouldn't have to be very strong to topple a weak rooted or dead tree.

Yes that may have been a reason, although the video did not caught the strongest wind gusts that reached 35 km/h (22 mph), according to the SNET (salvadorian met service), as you can see they're not very strong but they're the strongest wind gusts registered during this event. At this time the winds have calmed down but the rain continues.

[Macrocane]

Orange alert has been declared in El Salvador, some flooding, mudslides, fallen trees and damaged roads are already reported. Unfortunately the first death in El Salvador has been reported too. I don't have a link where you can see some pictures but if I find them I will post them.

[KWT]

Looks like Agatha is shooting off now to the north now, or at least a part of Agatha's convection is shooting up.

Next couple of hours very key, either the LLC is about to be somewhat exposed as I'd guess subsidence from the mountions starting to get dragged down...or the system is starting to speed up even further towards a landfall.

Closer zoom does show the circulation is starting to peek out again on the SW side of the LLC. Looks like the system is a little further north then the NHC estimate as well FWIW which puts it closer to the shore regardless.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Is it strenghtning or weakening?

[KWT]

Well the convection is waning, but the circulation still looks pretty good. I think its probably holding steady right now but weakening may not be far off because I think the land interaction is starting to play a role now.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[CourierPR]

Still appears to be heading NE per NHC.