EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA - DISCUSSION

[somethingfunny]

It's winding down pretty quickly....I guess it never was annular after all.

[Chacor]

Yeah. Looked annular, but if it really was annular, it'd have maintained intensity pretty well. No surprise then that the NHC never mentioned annularity.

[SootyTern]

What is the definition of 'annular'? Thanks!

[cycloneye]

What is the definition of 'annular'? Thanks!

Below is the explanation of what Annular is.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annular_hurricane

[Macrocane]

Yeah. Looked annular, but if it really was annular, it'd have maintained intensity pretty well. No surprise then that the NHC never mentioned annularity.

Yes they did, yesterday they mentioned that Celia had some charachteristics of an annular hurricane though they didn't say it WAS annular.

[cycloneye]

KNHC 261448
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
800 AM PDT SAT JUN 26 2010

CELIA CONTINUES TO DECAY THIS MORNING...WITH A SHRINKING BAND OF
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...INDICATIVE OF AN
0949 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS. CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB..AND AN 0900 UTC CIMSS
SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE WAS 83 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 80 KT CONSIDERING THAT THE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE
CONSTRAINED AND THE SATCON ESTIMATE OF 83 KT WAS A FEW HOURS
EARLIER. RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE...REDUCING CELIA TO A
REMNANT LOW IN 3 DAYS OR POSSIBLY LESS. AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES
COOL WATER AND MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST INTENSITY
PHILOSOPHY...AND MATCHES A COMPROMISE OF THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE
LGEM.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/8. CELIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOW IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE 3 DAYS. AFTERWARD...THE REMNANT LOW IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT IN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION AS THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE
BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND IS BASED ON
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/1500Z 15.6N 121.5W 80 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 15.9N 122.5W 65 KT
24HR VT 27/1200Z 16.1N 123.6W 50 KT
36HR VT 28/0000Z 16.2N 124.4W 35 KT
48HR VT 28/1200Z 16.2N 124.8W 30 KT
72HR VT 29/1200Z 16.2N 125.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 30/1200Z 16.2N 126.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 01/1200Z 16.2N 127.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

[HurricaneStriker]

I agree it looked a lot like an annular hurricane. Too bad it didn't persist very long as a Major Hurricane.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
200 PM PDT SAT JUN 26 2010

WHAT LITTLE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS THIS AFTERNOON...IS
CONFINED TO THE WEST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. DVORAK CURRENT
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 70 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB..AND
A 1730 UTC ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE WAS 67
KT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT.
CONTINUED RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHOULD DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW IN 2 DAYS....AND WITH DISSIPATION IN 4
DAYS...OR POSSIBLY SOONER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/7. CELIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITHIN THE
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
THROUGH THE REMAINING PERIOD...CELIA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW IN FORWARD
SPEED IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST AND IS BASED ON THE DYNAMICAL MULTI-MODEL BLEND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/2100Z 15.7N 122.2W 70 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 15.9N 123.1W 55 KT
24HR VT 27/1800Z 16.0N 124.1W 40 KT
36HR VT 28/0600Z 16.0N 124.6W 30 KT
48HR VT 28/1800Z 16.0N 125.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 29/1800Z 16.0N 126.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

[HURAKAN]

00z
EP, 04, 2010062700, , BEST, 0, 157N, 1224W, 55, 994, TS

The good days are over

[cycloneye]

WTPZ44 KNHC 270232
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
800 PM PDT SAT JUN 26 2010

CELIA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY...WITH THE REMAINING DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DECREASE...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 55 KT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ADT CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF 53 KT AND A DATA-T NUMBER 3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB. ADDITIONAL RAPID
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS CELIA TRAVERSES WATERS OF AROUND 25C...AND
THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATE
IN 3 OR 4 DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/6. CELIA IS BEING STEERED BY A
RIDGE SITUATED NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...THE FORWARD MOTION OF CELIA WILL SLOW TO
A CRAWL...AROUND 2 OR 3 KT UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0300Z 15.8N 122.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 15.9N 123.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 28/0000Z 16.0N 124.2W 30 KT
36HR VT 28/1200Z 16.0N 124.8W 25 KT
48HR VT 29/0000Z 16.0N 125.2W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 30/0000Z 16.0N 126.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[fogbreath]

Is it time to paraphrase Simon & Garfunkel now?

Oh, Celia...you're breaking apart...you're taking convection off daily

[bob rulz]

I think rapid weakening is almost an understatement.

[Chacor]

EP, 04, 2010062706, , BEST, 0, 159N, 1232W, 45, 1000, TS,

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 270859
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
200 AM PDT SUN JUN 27 2010

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME RATHER LIMITED THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW
CELLS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF CELIA.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SET AT 45 KT...AND IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND A CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF 43 KT. FURTHER WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED...AND CELIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN LESS
THAN 2 DAYS AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE AROUND DAY 3.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/5....AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CYCLONE DECAYS TO A REMNANT LOW.
SOME REDUCTION IS FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH ERODES IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS COMPRISED OF A BLEND OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0900Z 15.9N 123.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 16.0N 124.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 28/0600Z 16.0N 124.7W 30 KT
36HR VT 28/1800Z 16.0N 125.3W 25 KT
48HR VT 29/0600Z 16.0N 125.8W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 30/0600Z 16.0N 127.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART

[KWT]

Weakening pretty quickly as others have said, not all that surprising mind you given thre stable atmosphere which was to the west of Celia...

Still what an amazing hurricane at its peak!

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 271436
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 27 2010

CELIA HAS MADE A BIT OF A COMEBACK THIS MORNING WITH A NEW BAND OF
CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. HOWEVER SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 45 KT. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS OVER SUB 25C
WATERS AND EMBEDDED IN A STABLE AIRMASS...A GRADUAL SPINDOWN IS
LIKELY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND AGREES WITH THE STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

THE BEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/3...THOUGH IT IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN WITH FEW MICROWAVE IMAGES OVERNIGHT. CELIA IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME STATIONARY BY THIS EVENING AS IT GETS CAUGHT IN AN AREA
OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. THEREAFTER...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MODEL SPREAD IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS SOME MODELS...INCLUDING THE
GFS/ECMWF/GFDL...NOW MOVE THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST AS
CELIA FEELS THE EFFECTS OF A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER MEXICO.
WHILE THE EASTWARD TRACK DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY AT THIS TIME...THE
NHC FORECAST WILL NOW SHOW THE CYCLONE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY
INSTEAD OF MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE IT
DISSIPATES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1500Z 15.9N 123.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 15.9N 124.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 15.9N 124.4W 30 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 15.9N 124.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 29/1200Z 15.9N 124.6W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 30/1200Z 15.8N 124.7W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
200 PM PDT SUN JUN 27 2010

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CELIA HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...WITH ONLY A FEW COLD TOPS REMAINING NEAR THE CENTER.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT BASED ON A THE LATEST
DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. SINCE CELIA WILL REMAIN OVER
WATERS AROUND 25C AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DRY...STABLE AIRMASS...A
GRADUAL SPINDOWN TO REMNANT LOW STATUS IS EXPECTED IN 36 TO 48
HOURS...WITH DISSIPATION BY 72 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM.

THE BEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/04...A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE
WEST. CELIA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN TONIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY BY MONDAY AS IT GETS CAUGHT IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING
CURRENTS. THE NHC FORECAST TAKES CELIA SLOWLY WESTWARD PRIOR TO
DISSIPATION...AND IS SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/2100Z 15.7N 124.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 15.6N 124.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 15.6N 124.5W 25 KT
36HR VT 29/0600Z 15.6N 124.6W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 29/1800Z 15.6N 124.7W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 280238
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
800 PM PDT SUN JUN 27 2010

THERE IS STILL A SMALL PATCH OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...SUGGESTING THAT CELIA IS MAINTAINING ITS
INTENSITY...FOR NOW. A BLEND OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY AND
FINAL T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB YIELDS 35 KT FOR THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE
EASTERLY SHEAR AND THE SHIPS OUTPUT INDICATES AN INCREASING
MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS...COUPLED
WITH MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A RELATIVELY STABLE AIR
MASS...SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING. CELIA WILL LIKELY BECOME A
REMNANT LOW WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED FURTHER AND IS NOW ABOUT 250/2.
STEERING CURRENTS FOR CELIA ARE EXTREMELY WEAK...AND NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE CALLS FOR THIS SITUATION TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BLOCK MUCH MORE WESTWARD PROGRESS...AND
THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO
SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH...BUT BECAUSE THE PREDICTED SPEED OF
MOTION IS SO SLOW...THIS AMOUNTS TO A NEGLIGIBLE CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0300Z 15.6N 124.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 15.5N 124.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 29/0000Z 15.4N 124.3W 25 KT
36HR VT 29/1200Z 15.3N 124.4W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 30/0000Z 15.2N 124.4W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

280849
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
200 AM PDT MON JUN 28 2010

RECENT TRMM AND SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE SURFACE
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA WAS DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL
CENTER. SUBSEQUENTLY...THE SMALL PATCH OF DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE HAS WRAPPED SOUTHWARD AND THE CURRENT
CENTER IS ANALYZED TO BE EAST OF THIS CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND. TAFB
AND SAB DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS SUGGESTED THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINED
NEAR THE BORDER OF TROPICAL STORM AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION INTENSITY
AS DID TWO AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KT.

CELIA IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD WITH A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
ESTIMATE OF 220/2. STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND LIKELY TO REMAIN
SO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND
OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH HAS NOT PICKED UP WELL ON THE
SHORT-TERM MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE RATHER MEAGER DEEP CONVECTION LIKELY REFLECTS THE RATHER COOL
SSTS...STABLE AIR...AND MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR THAT ARE
IMPACTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE COMBINED EFFECT OF THESE
INHIBITING FACTORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM AND DEEP CONVECTION COULD CEASE LATER TODAY AFTER THE
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAX...SUCH AS IT IS...COMES TO AN END. AVAILABLE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR DEMISE OF CELIA
WITHIN ABOUT TWO DAYS AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0900Z 15.3N 124.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 15.1N 124.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 15.0N 124.1W 25 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 15.0N 123.9W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 30/0600Z 15.0N 123.7W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 281434
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
800 AM PDT MON JUN 28 2010

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CELIA HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...AND VERY
LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT BASED ON A BLEND OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.

THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION OVER CELIA HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH
...BUT THE INTENSITY IS HELD CONSERVATIVELY AT 35 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN IS EXPECTED...AND CELIA SHOULD
BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN A DAY OR TWO AND DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1500Z 15.2N 124.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 15.3N 124.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 15.3N 124.2W 25 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 15.3N 124.1W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 30/1200Z 15.3N 124.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN