ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[KWT]

I just saw some of the models and they bring it over the extreme southern part of the BOC, very close to land. I'm thinking it's inflow will be blocked off and it'll have a hard time reorganizing due to proximity of land.

Models probably started too far south with this one, looks like its about a degree further north then all of the models were expecting, including the globals...not a huge amount BUT it may make the difference!

[chzzdekr81]

I think at the 8PM update this will be code orange for sure. We're going to have Colin, and maybe two code oranges. Doesn't seem like a slow season to me.

[Florida1118]

I think at the 8PM update this will be code orange for sure. We're going to have Colin, and maybe two code oranges. Doesn't seem like a slow season to me.

And its only the 6th. Great.

[chzzdekr81]

We could get Earl by the beginning of next week. If that happens, we would be caught up with the 2008 season.

[KWT]

I think at the 8PM update this will be code orange for sure. We're going to have Colin, and maybe two code oranges. Doesn't seem like a slow season to me.

Agreed, I doubt they go above 30% because of land and the fact the low level turning is pretty poor still, and that tends to take a good 24hrs to develop...time this one doesn't have this side of CA...

[wxman57]

I'd say it has a 30-40% shot at development, but not until it passes the Yucatan. It'll be moving inland tonight, so there is not enough time east of the Yucatan. Then it's just a question of whether it can move far enough north to get away from land along the southern BoC. I think it will. But it's staying south of Tampico. Could be one of those short-lived tropical storms that forms just before moving ashore in southern Mexico.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Loop

[KWT]

Its looking good but still IMO lacking major low level turning, probably one of those systems that looks more organised then it probably is...

[Buck]

Yes, I think it looks like it has it more together than it really does but it is starting to get some good outflow.

[hurricaneCW]

I'd say it has a 30-40% shot at development, but not until it passes the Yucatan. It'll be moving inland tonight, so there is not enough time east of the Yucatan. Then it's just a question of whether it can move far enough north to get away from land along the southern BoC. I think it will. But it's staying south of Tampico. Could be one of those short-lived tropical storms that forms just before moving ashore in southern Mexico.

My exact thoughts to a tee.

[HURAKAN]

I'd say it has a 30-40% shot at development, but not until it passes the Yucatan. It'll be moving inland tonight, so there is not enough time east of the Yucatan. Then it's just a question of whether it can move far enough north to get away from land along the southern BoC. I think it will. But it's staying south of Tampico. Could be one of those short-lived tropical storms that forms just before moving ashore in southern Mexico.

My exact thoughts to a tee.

Really? wxman57 thinks it could become a short-lived tropical storm, you don't think so based on what you said in the statement below.

It doesn't appear to be heading into the BOC, if it does, it'll hug the the extreme southern part. Too close to land to get going. It is clearly organizing, just not enough time.

What do you mean it doesn't appear to be heading into the BoC? Almost every spaghetti model shows it going over it. Please explain.

I just saw some of the models and they bring it over the extreme southern part of the BOC, very close to land. I'm thinking it's inflow will be blocked off and it'll have a hard time reorganizing due to proximity of land.

[hurricaneCW]

Well I said TD in one of my previous posts, but what's the difference, 35 mph TD or 40 mph TS.

[NOLA2010]

Well I said TD in one of my previous posts, but what's the difference, 35 mph TD or 40 mph TS.

You said that it would be to close to land to organize into anything.

[KWT]

Haha quite a bit if your a stat freak I suppose HCW!

Still I think I agree with the idea, it really depend on how much latitude it can gain over the next 24-36hrs as to its development chances.

Land might actually help to focus what is currently a fairly flabby low pressure system, like it did with TD2.

[Portastorm]

Well I said TD in one of my previous posts, but what's the difference, 35 mph TD or 40 mph TS.

You said that it would be to close to land to organize into anything.

Alright ... I think we have established who said what here. Let's all take a chill pill!

[hurricaneCW]

There's not enough time to organize. Also, the convection has weakened somewhat. At best a TD at this point

I said it could still become a TD considering it still has a day or so left. I'm going against it though with chances around 40% of a TD before hitting land. If it stays in the BOC, then it'll probably have another 40% chance unless the Yucatan completely shreds it apart.

[RL3AO]

Don't systems have a history of tightening up over the Yucatan (maybe more the northern Yucatan)?

[cperez1594]

AL, 92, 2010080618, , BEST, 0, 163N, 846W, 25, 1009

A little jog to the north???

[srainhoutx]

I suspect more of a correction from the 12Z best track than anything RE: 18Z best track. The 00Z's will be out in a bit. Let's see what they have to offer. Convection has waned over the past couple of hours. 92L seems to have a history of diurnal convection.