ATL: FIONA - Models

[ronjon]

Soon to be Fiona the next Hugo according to latest 12z ECM. Trend is south and west - still 9-10 days out.



Or does it become Dora.



Or Frances.

[PTrackerLA]

Wow the path Is strikingly similar to Hugo! Future model runs will certainly be interesting.

[Ivanhater]

What is concerning is the Euro is consistently showing a monster of a hurricane heading toward the U.S with each run coming in further west.

Earl will have to be watched first, but there will not be a break between Earl and soon to be Fiona...

[South Texas Storms]

is it possible that 97l could even make it to the gulf?

[Ivanhater]

Euro track

[wxman57]

European doesn't like Charleston:
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... _loop.html

[vacanechaser]

wow...


not much else to say.. just wow

[Ivanhater]

European doesn't like Charleston:
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... _loop.html

Yep. bending west with a ridge building to the north. Atlanta may gets some nasty weather with it continuing inland on this run. Euro ensemble should be interesting shortly.

[vacanechaser]

when will that come out ivan??

[Vortex]

The most important thing to take from this run is the continued expectation from several of the Globals of the possibility of a very intense hurricane over the SW Atlantic late next weekend. It sems that at some point this system will be blocked from turning N and out to sea. Whether thats a Fl/GA/Carolinas hit or futher N just too soon to tell but the trend is ominious.

[Ikester]

Interesting that Fiona replaced Frances which struck central Florida.

[Ivanhater]

when will that come out ivan??

Should be in about an hour Jesse. BTW, just watched my 2004 hurricane season DVD again I got from Hurricanetrack. Great chase!

[WeatherEmperor]

Just remember that the UKMET, GFS and GFDL all turn 97L/Fiona towards the NW in the direction of Bermuda, so not all the models show what the Euro is showing. You can see that on this graphic:

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_97.gif

In fact, the Euro, CMC and NOGAPS show the threat to the SE coast.

<RICKY>

[vacanechaser]

when will that come out ivan??

Should be in about an hour Jesse. BTW, just watched my 2004 hurricane season DVD again I got from Hurricanetrack. Great chase!

cool... maybe looking at the 2010 dvd in december if this keeps up!!!

will be waiting to see those runs when they come out... they have been pretty far west already anyway...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Talking about trends, would not surprise me one bit to see some models shift even further south and west the next few days. I believe they are just starting to hint that the trough will be weakening and lifting out with Earl and strong high pressure building in. Also need to see if they show it bridging with any sort of gulf coast high that could build east.
Just look at what they have done with Earl so far and still shifting westlittle by little. Days ago he was curving out to sea east of Bermuda now could be a potential mid to ne atlantic hit.

[vacanechaser]

the thing i noticed on that site for the euro is that it is forecasting the NAO positive by the 4th of sept... has it hitting s.c. near the 7th i think.... dont know if that is playing into the westward move... but would argue for more ridging

[ROCK]

the EURO is showing a pretty bad scenario....cant be discounted as its is showing the ridge building back in the long range. I think the CMC was sniffing this earlier ...still some ways out but the odds of recurve are looking less likely...for the islands and the US....

[Epsilon_Fan]

European doesn't like Charleston:
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... _loop.html

being from Charleston, I'm not liking these model runs. Especially with the chances of this becoming a significant storm

[jaxfladude]

Soon to be Fiona the next Hugo according to latest 12z ECM. Trend is south and west - still 9-10 days out.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Or does it become Dora.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Or Frances.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

man I have seen more Dora posts by some here(myself included) than I have seen in a long time, maybe ever!

[jlauderdal]

Wow the path Is strikingly similar to Hugo! Future model runs will certainly be interesting.

it is similar and if this system makes landfall within 200 miles either side of Charleston i will be absolutely shocked, there is just way too much error this far out, its fun to discuss of course but lets see how these models start tending over th enxt 72 hours especially as they get a handle on how far west earl the pearl makes it because at this rate its going to make it to 75W