ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

[StormingB81]

I am suprised. I am out here in Japan but When I went to bad I was sure that this was going to be a tropical depression when I woke up...

[cycloneye]

Up to 80%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME
TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MEANDERS SLOWLY. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

[SouthDadeFish]

Up to 80% with little change in organization... I guess if they said it became slightly better organized it would have to be a TD. Hmm....

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like cirrus outflow is starting to grow to the SW, although its very minimal. Perhaps a sign shear is letting up some.

[HURAKAN]

Air Temperature: 81°F
Dewpoint: 77°F
Wind: NW at 11 mph
gusting to 16
Pressure: 1006.7 mb
Wave Height: 3 ft
Sea Surface Temp: 84.2°F

pressure keeps decreasing

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 99, 2010102100, , BEST, 0, 176N, 812W, 30, 1006, LO

Lets see if they renumber the system later.

[Weatherfreak000]

Chances are looking strong they are gonna go ahead and classify this. Convection has been steady, we already measured TD like pressure and winds and there is the LLC. No need to wait for visibles here when just about any increase in organization would be good enough.

[SouthDadeFish]

Cloud tops cooling:http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_1

[wxman57]

I don't see any signs of shear letting up tonight. The trof axis is digging right into the NW Caribbean tonight, as can be seen on WV loops. But with the center reforming close to the convection, that may be enough to warrant an upgrade this evening. I think that the shear may let up in another 24 hrs, allowing for rapid organization.

[Blown Away]

I don't see any signs of shear letting up tonight. The trof axis is digging right into the NW Caribbean tonight, as can be seen on WV loops. But with the center reforming close to the convection, that may be enough to warrant an upgrade this evening. I think that the shear may let up in another 24 hrs, allowing for rapid organization.

Has Florida's/NGOM chances of seeing 99L increased or is 99L doomed to be buried into CA/Yucatan?

[wxman57]

I don't see any signs of shear letting up tonight. The trof axis is digging right into the NW Caribbean tonight, as can be seen on WV loops. But with the center reforming close to the convection, that may be enough to warrant an upgrade this evening. I think that the shear may let up in another 24 hrs, allowing for rapid organization.

Has Florida's/NGOM chances of seeing 99L increased or is 99L doomed to be buried into CA/Yucatan?

Can't tell yet with much confidence. But there's a growing model consensus of an impact on the central to south Yucatan Coast then a northward track to the south-central Gulf. From there, it will depend on if it can hold together after being inland for a day or two. With an approaching cold front toward next Tue/Wed, it could well be steered NE toward Florida if it's in the southern Gulf by the Yucatan.

[Blown Away]

I don't see any signs of shear letting up tonight. The trof axis is digging right into the NW Caribbean tonight, as can be seen on WV loops. But with the center reforming close to the convection, that may be enough to warrant an upgrade this evening. I think that the shear may let up in another 24 hrs, allowing for rapid organization.

Has Florida's/NGOM chances of seeing 99L increased or is 99L doomed to be buried into CA/Yucatan?

Can't tell yet with much confidence. But there's a growing model consensus of an impact on the central to south Yucatan Coast then a northward track to the south-central Gulf. From there, it will depend on if it can hold together after being inland for a day or two. With an approaching cold front toward next Tue/Wed, it could well be steered NE toward Florida if it's in the southern Gulf by the Yucatan.

Because 99L keeps drifting/relocating the center farther east how much impact if any will it have keeping 99L offshore to the east from the Yucatan?

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al992010_al192010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201010210043
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

[lrak]

Can't tell yet with much confidence. But there's a growing model consensus of an impact on the central to south Yucatan Coast then a northward track to the south-central Gulf. From there, it will depend on if it can hold together after being inland for a day or two. With an approaching cold front toward next Tue/Wed, it could well be steered NE toward Florida if it's in the southern Gulf by the Yucatan.

Swell might be heading towards Tx next week? After work sessions are almost gone and when the time changes we're all out of luck. Speaking of luck, good luck to Florida next week if all this comes true.

[cycloneye]

AL, 19, 2010102100, , BEST, 0, 176N, 812W, 30, 1006, TD
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[wxman57]

Can't tell yet with much confidence. But there's a growing model consensus of an impact on the central to south Yucatan Coast then a northward track to the south-central Gulf. From there, it will depend on if it can hold together after being inland for a day or two. With an approaching cold front toward next Tue/Wed, it could well be steered NE toward Florida if it's in the southern Gulf by the Yucatan.

Swell might be heading towards Tx next week? After work sessions are almost gone and when the time changes we're all out of luck. Speaking of luck, good luck to Florida next week if all this comes true.

Nope, not Texas. IF it was to survive being over the Yucatan for a few days, then by that time a moderate cold front will be sweeping off the Texas coast. That would prevent any movement in our direction.

[caneseddy]

AL, 19, 2010102100, , BEST, 0, 176N, 812W, 30, 1006, TD

Here we go!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Hurricane]

Tropical depression!

[StormingB81]

Off The NRL site they are Upgrading it