ATL: RICHARD - Models

[Ntxw]

is tx/la out of the clear? what are the odds of hitting in our area...

Trough and Front coming in, likely not even a drop of rain out of it west of New Orleans imo. Small small miniscule chance for Tx/w La, weak ridge too far east, strong ridge will vanish into the depths of the Yucantan/Mexico.

[gatorcane]

HWRF looks like its into the SE GOM moving slowly

[Vortex]

12Z ECM at day 5 further E and shooting thru the yucantan channel...



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP120.gif

[Vortex]

H168 heading Non the west side of the ridge over the FL peninsula..looks like a FL panhandale....



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP168.gif

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 211834
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1834 UTC THU OCT 21 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE RICHARD (AL192010) 20101021 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101021  1800   101022  0600   101022  1800   101023  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.1N  80.4W   15.6N  81.1W   15.2N  82.2W   14.6N  83.5W
BAMD    16.1N  80.4W   16.2N  80.6W   16.5N  81.1W   16.8N  81.8W
BAMM    16.1N  80.4W   15.8N  81.0W   15.5N  81.9W   15.0N  83.0W
LBAR    16.1N  80.4W   16.2N  80.5W   17.2N  81.0W   18.5N  81.6W
SHIP        35KTS          43KTS          49KTS          56KTS
DSHP        35KTS          43KTS          49KTS          56KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101023  1800   101024  1800   101025  1800   101026  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.1N  85.1W   13.5N  88.0W   13.9N  89.9W   14.7N  91.9W
BAMD    17.0N  82.9W   17.7N  86.7W   19.0N  90.2W   20.1N  92.5W
BAMM    14.6N  84.6W   14.2N  87.9W   14.1N  90.5W   13.7N  93.5W
LBAR    19.9N  82.4W   23.0N  83.9W   26.9N  82.9W   31.9N  75.2W
SHIP        63KTS          72KTS          70KTS          58KTS
DSHP        63KTS          72KTS          44KTS          31KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.1N LONCUR =  80.4W DIRCUR = 155DEG SPDCUR =   3KT
LATM12 =  17.2N LONM12 =  80.9W DIRM12 = 147DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  17.6N LONM24 =  81.7W
WNDCUR =   35KT RMAXWD =   80NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =   90NM RD34SE =   90NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$


[Vortex]

H192 gets absorbed ahead of the front and heads N over the panhandle....This looks as good as any solution right now.



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP192.gif

[Blown Away]

GDFL is showing a high Cat 4 hurricane at the Yucatan landfall. I can't believe that, but stranger things have happened.

Not unusual, many giants have formed in this area during October. The SST's are very warm and if shear is light watch out! For a hurricane landfall in the CONUS it's all about avoiding land and shooting through the Yucatan Channel intact. That's why some models show a monster and others show a weak system.

[caneseddy]

So GFDL, HWRF, Euro and its ensembles are all showing what seems a Florida landfall

GFS, Nogaps, CMC, and UKMET are showing the system dying into Central America/Yucatan Peninsula

Which camp will win out??? we shall see

[Ivanhater]

Yeah 12z Euro is the same as last night...Greater Pensacola area as it heads north through the weakness between the ridge over the Florida peninsula and the trough over the central U.S

[cycloneye]

So GFDL, HWRF, and Euro are all showing what seems a Florida landfall

GFS, Nogaps, CMC, and UKMET are showing the system dying into Central America/Yucatan Peninsula

Which camp will win out??? we shall see

Better question is,which camp will NHC decide to follow at 5 PM. Or they may split in the middle?

[dwsqos2]

Look at the times on those Euro images. There is a reason it looks so similar to the 0Z run; it is the 0Z run.

[caneseddy]

So GFDL, HWRF, and Euro are all showing what seems a Florida landfall

GFS, Nogaps, CMC, and UKMET are showing the system dying into Central America/Yucatan Peninsula

Which camp will win out??? we shall see

Better question is,which camp will NHC decide to follow at 5 PM. Or they may split in the middle?

At 11:00 am they were going with the GFDL/Euro/HWRF camp which showed the weaker ridge...I think they will keep the same track with maybe a little shift east in the long-range

[caneseddy]

Look at the times on those Euro images. There is a reason it looks so similar to the 0Z run; it is the 0Z run.

I kept looking at it and thought my eyes were deceiving me because I too saw the 00z stamp

[Ivanhater]

That is the run from last night. I was wondering how Vortex got it so fast

[cycloneye]

This is the 12z ECMWF. It hits the Yucatan at 20N.

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro agrees with the GFS with a ridge over the Florida Peninsula standing strong.

[wxman57]

Then the Euro loses it. If it's a major hurricane near the NE Yucatan then it's not likely to have dissipated in another 24 hours.

[caneseddy]

18z tracks

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_19.gif

[Vortex]

Does anyone know when we can expect the guidance to incorporate the recon data?

[Vortex]

That is the run from last night. I was wondering how Vortex got it so fast

lol..just trying to keep up with you-ha