ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[SFLcane]

This does not bode well for the future. Alex is deepening with 1) Little Deep Convection; 2) Southerly In-flo cut off; 3) Over the coolest water he will traverse.

One has to wonder why the HWRF/GFDL models aren't intensifying alex into a significant tc... Could it be because of that ULL trying to dig into the gulf. You can see it clearly on WV.

[dhweather]

This is interesting, the upper level low over SE LA / SRN MS is pumping hot dry air from Texas into the Western gulf, and it's starting to look like that is affecting Alex's northwestern quadrant. This will be worth watching today to see how it impacts Alex.

[Sanibel]

Yeppers it did turn. That slow down upon emerging into the Gulf was a turn. Those who said "If it is going to follow the north models it needs to go north now". Well it did.

This sets-up a strong landfall track.

[Comanche]

Yeppers it did turn. That slow down upon emerging into the Gulf was a turn. Those who said "If it is going to follow the north models it needs to go north now". Well it did.

This sets-up a strong landfall track.

do u have the new coordinates?

[HouTXmetro]

Yeppers it did turn. That slow down upon emerging into the Gulf was a turn. Those who said "If it is going to follow the north models it needs to go north now". Well it did.

This sets-up a strong landfall track.

Keep in mind Alex formed much further south and in turn emerged into the BOC much further south than the northern models predicted. Just for the sake of objectivity ALex should have already been in the South Central Gulf just North of the Yucatan Penn according to those "northern" models. just saying.

[cycloneye]

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF
BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST
OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ.

[Cape Verde]

I keep coming back to the Macondo oil spill site. If the more northern tracks begin to verify, those folks have to leave, whether or not the storm ends up close to them.

[ConvergenceZone]

I guess the question remains, will the dynamic models verify and willAlex remain a tropical storm? Perhaps the ULL digging down will affect it much more than we are able to see right now.

[Sanibel]

GFDL, a model that is usually crazy with winds, loses the storm and sends a puff of a depression into southern Texas.

[cycloneye]

Track shifts more northward.

[tronbunny]

Countrygirl911,

we don't go by 'feeling' here. Each post we make is based on solid, sound meterological reasoning.
We stand by the official forecasts and then analyze them, the models, current recon reports and historical data.
At this point, no one is ready to consider N.Tx/La at all.
We do, however see some evidence that Alex may have some impact on the weather and ocean conditions in that region, shortly.
Just be prepared and watch for the advisories. Act with "an abundance of caution" but don't allow yourself to stress over feelings or guesses. (those are called 'wishcasts' and are not acceptable posts, here)

[dhweather]

The NHC has crept northward with this from Tampico a couple of days ago to just south of Brownsville now. In the discussion they noted the ULL over SE LA is pumping dry air and light shear in, but it will move out tomorrow. They also note Alex has deepened despite this light shear.

[ConvergenceZone]

GFDL, a model that is usually crazy with winds, loses the storm and sends a puff of a depression into southern Texas.

Yep, they might start bringing the forecasted winds down in future advisories. We'll have to wait and see.

[Sanibel]

Looking at the visible Floater Alex looks like it is regrouping after an overland trip and just waiting to get a little more water around it to reform and rev-up again. Dry NW quadrant or not.

[Category 5]

Just thought I'd toss a few stats out there.

Since I started tracking hurricanes in 1996, there have been more Hurricanes in December (2, Nicole and Epilson) than in June (none).

Last June Hurricane in the Atlantic Basin: Allison 1995
Last June major Hurricane in the Atlantic Basin: Alma 1966.

[johngaltfla]

This does not bode well for the future. Alex is deepening with 1) Little Deep Convection; 2) Southerly In-flo cut off; 3) Over the coolest water he will traverse.

That's what I was afraid of AFM, especially when it moves into the area within 100 miles of Brownsville as that water is toasty and prime fuel to give this storm time to strengthen.

[Clint_TX]

"trough is forecast to lift out
of the area in a day or so...which should allow ridging to build
back in slightly and steer Alex more toward the northwest. After
that time...the strength of a ridge over the Central Plains should
help determine whether the tropical cyclone continues a
northwestward motion or makes more of a turn toward the
west-northwest"

Good call AFM, this is exactly what you said last week.

[jaxfladude]

Track shifts more northward.

Prayers up for the Mex-Tex border area.

Stay safe y'all.

[Bocadude85]

Just thought I'd toss a few stats out there.

Since I started tracking hurricanes in 1996, there have been more Hurricanes in December (2, Nicole and Epilson) than in June (none).

Last June Hurricane in the Atlantic Basin: Allison 1995
Last June major Hurricane in the Atlantic Basin: Alma 1966.

That is very interesting

[vbhoutex]

Look at the convective mass filling the north-central GOM. This is very similar to what the GFS forecast 2 days ago. There appears to be some vorticity south of La - may be associated with that weak ULL. It may be very wet along the northern gulf coast this week.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

Even with some dry air and shear on the NW side Alex is obviously building and expanding and filling in his moisture envelope imo. This does suggest that probably most, if not all of the TX coast will have a wet week as well as the possibility that areas East of TX will also get some of this moisture. Of course the track is the kicker in all of this as far as what areas will receive the abundant rains normally associated with a TC. Since Alex is currently a slow mover and I haven't seen any suggestions of late that say he will speed up anytime soon areas near and NE of his landfall point may be subject to some major possibly flooding rains. Please everyone keep close track of Alex through your local NWS and information provided here so you are prepared for any problems Alex may cause in your area.