ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Texashawk]

Perhaps this is a question for an on-air met, but I'd like anybody's thoughts...

Say you're a Houston met. Even though Houston is 100+ miles outside the 3 day cone, you're skeptical about the forecast for various reasons previously described in the forums. You know it takes 2-3 days just to organize any kind of evacuation, and you don't want to create a panic or a run on supplies, but you in your gut (and scientific heart) feel like this may be a really bad situation for Houston.

What do you tell viewers? Do you have 'limits' that producers set on how far you can deviate from the official NHC forecast? How much do you dare deviate from the forecast, and risk being wrong and creating a panic where none needed to occur?

Just curious as to what people, particularly promets, think.

[chzzdekr81]

Should I still be watching this even though I live in South East Texas?

[dhweather]

Just thought I'd toss a few stats out there.

Since I started tracking hurricanes in 1996, there have been more Hurricanes in December (2, Nicole and Epilson) than in June (none).

Last June Hurricane in the Atlantic Basin: Allison 1995
Last June major Hurricane in the Atlantic Basin: Alma 1966.

Excellent points.

The 2001 Allison, "only" a tropical storm, flooded many parts of Houston with torrential rains up to 40 inches.

[bohaiboy]

TWC forecast for HTown area shows and increase to POPS of 50% for Th/Fri/Sat and winds in the low 20mph range.

[dhweather]

Should I still be watching this even though I live in South East Texas?

YES. The track is far from finalized and has trended north for a few days now. You'll also be north/east of the likely path, so you'll get more weather than west/south of the path.

[Tireman4]

Should I still be watching this even though I live in South East Texas?

Yes. To paraphrase Dr Neil Frank....keep watching and tuned into it is inland and gone.

[PTrackerLA]

Given most locations in south LA are running over 12" in rainfall deficits since January 1 a wet week wouldn't be so bad around here. Hopefully Alex will stay far enough to the south to not hault containment efforts in the Gulf. Good luck to those in deep south Texas.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

Should I still be watching this even though I live in South East Texas?

Yes. To paraphrase Dr Neil Frank....keep watching and tuned into it is inland and gone.

gotta feeling we'll be seeing dr. frank very soon locally here on ch. 11!!

[Comanche]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn.html

colder tops failing again around the center area.

[TexWx]

"gotta feeling we'll be seeing dr. frank very soon locally here on ch. 11!!"

Yes. They said last night that he would be on this evening i think.

[ConvergenceZone]

This probably won't hit hurricane until sometime tomorrow morning.

[Tireman4]

Should I still be watching this even though I live in South East Texas?

Yes. To paraphrase Dr Neil Frank....keep watching and tuned into it is inland and gone.

gotta feeling we'll be seeing dr. frank very soon locally here on ch. 11!!

That will be a sight for sore eyes. I do miss him on television!!

[cycloneye]

The latest at 15:15z or 11:15 EDT.

[barometerJane61]

Just thought I'd toss a few stats out there.

Since I started tracking hurricanes in 1996, there have been more Hurricanes in December (2, Nicole and Epilson) than in June (none).

Last June Hurricane in the Atlantic Basin: Allison 1995
Last June major Hurricane in the Atlantic Basin: Alma 1966.

Excellent points.

The 2001 Allison, "only" a tropical storm, flooded many parts of Houston with torrential rains up to 40 inches.

I remember that Allison very well.It did more destruction than most cat 1 hurricanes.It killed more than a dozen people all the way up the east coast and was only a named storm for less than a day.Just goes to show how unpredictable mother nature can be

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn.html

colder tops failing again around the center area.

Colder tops failing??? the loop i'm viewing is showing colder tops developing aroune the LLC.

[SunnyThoughts]

[ROCK]

looks elongated....and stuck in a mud puddle....not moving hardly at all...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

[KWT]

Wow that really has developed a sheared look, sometimes these systems don't lose the shear since they follow the environment its in....

No doubt that shear is going to ease if its going to get much above 55-60kts in its lifetime...but we saw what happens if the shear does ease before landfall first time round.

[x-y-no]

Well it's not all a steady upward climb for Alex - central pressure is up a little, temperature profile in the last vortex message is pretty weak, and convection over the center is declining.

The combination of some northwesterly shear and the proximity of the Yucatan is having its effect. I still expect a hurricane no later than the 5am advisory, though.

[KWT]

I think shear has strengthened again, may even have a slight decoupling occuring right now looking at the loops but I need a better look at it first...