ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[HouTXmetro]

I just resfreshed my loop...Looks a Mess now.

[ConvergenceZone]

If it doesn't go hurricane by tomorow, I still think it will hit hurricane before the next landfall. I'm not sure I buy the tropical storm the models are all showing...

[ROCK]

I would say decoupled somewhat looking at vis...

[Comanche]

I just resfreshed my loop...Looks a Mess now.

so now you see what I was talking about?

[Pedro Fernández]

I think shear has strengthened again, may even have a slight decoupling occuring right now looking at the loops but I need a better look at it first...

Yep... I was just thinking ALEX visual appearance is deteriorating, with an eliptical shape and less convection near the center. I would even say the axis of centers of the storm along the vertical is tilted (sheared).

[weatherrabbit_tx]

"gotta feeling we'll be seeing dr. frank very soon locally here on ch. 11!!"

Yes. They said last night that he would be on this evening i think.

Just an FYI: Doc Frank will be on air at 5 PM and 6 PM tonight. from srainhoutx on the ch. 11 weather forum..

[ROCK]

whats going on under LA,AL and Fl panhandle...thats a lot of energy up there.....hmmm

piece of energy from Alex broke off....I am guessing..

[KWT]

Yeah I'm pretty sure its decoupled somewhat again, that shear is going to have to lift out if its going to strengthen much beyond where it is now...thats probably why the pressure has risen again.

I'd have thought the shear will eventually ease off but the fact Alex is caught in a more northerly airflow is probably why its being sheared, once it edges more westwards I think shear will ease off a little further as the upper high starts to send it back westwards, which would probably induce a more condusive set-up aloft...

[TexasF6]

GMZ175-282145-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
1101 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT...

[Normandy]

Yeah I'm pretty sure its decoupled somewhat again, that shear is going to have to lift out if its going to strengthen much beyond where it is now...thats probably why the pressure has risen again.

I'd have thought the shear will eventually ease off but the fact Alex is caught in a more northerly airflow is probably why its being sheared, once it edges more westwards I think shear will ease off a little further as the upper high starts to send it back westwards, which would probably induce a more condusive set-up aloft...

Recon found the flight level center and low level center 5 miles apart, so its not really "decoupled." The lack of deepening has to do with the modest shear and land interaction.

[HouTXmetro]

"gotta feeling we'll be seeing dr. frank very soon locally here on ch. 11!!"

Yes. They said last night that he would be on this evening i think.

Just an FYI: Doc Frank will be on air at 5 PM and 6 PM tonight. from srainhoutx on the ch. 11 weather forum..

Massive energy and shear occuring, "looks like a trough/frontal like feature in the Gulf.....WTH?

[ROCK]

"gotta feeling we'll be seeing dr. frank very soon locally here on ch. 11!!"

Yes. They said last night that he would be on this evening i think.

Just an FYI: Doc Frank will be on air at 5 PM and 6 PM tonight. from srainhoutx on the ch. 11 weather forum..

Massive energy and shear occuring, "looks like a trough/frontal like feature in the Gulf.....WTH?

Weak ULL diving into the GOM off of Western LA?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

[ConvergenceZone]

Yeah I'm pretty sure its decoupled somewhat again, that shear is going to have to lift out if its going to strengthen much beyond where it is now...thats probably why the pressure has risen again.

I'd have thought the shear will eventually ease off but the fact Alex is caught in a more northerly airflow is probably why its being sheared, once it edges more westwards I think shear will ease off a little further as the upper high starts to send it back westwards, which would probably induce a more condusive set-up aloft...

KWT, I"m really starting to think that this is why all the dynamic models
are keeping this a tropical storm or less. We need to be prepared obviously,
but maybe we will get lucky and only have a tropical storm on our hands as it makes
landfall...I'm getting more and more swayed in that direction.

[KWT]

I'm willing to bet that is going to increase though Normandy, I'll be very interested to see what the next pass shows because its only in the last 30-45 mins thats its become more evident that it maybe decoupling.

I have no doubts still this becomes a hurricane, once the shear eases back a little in probably 12-24hrs time and allows the system to bend to the NW/WNW, but we shall see what happens!

[dhweather]

whats going on under LA,AL and Fl panhandle...thats a lot of energy up there.....hmmm

piece of energy from Alex broke off....I am guessing..

That is an upper level low that has been in the gulf region for a few days now. NHC says it will lift out tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

The latest pass by center has pressure of 990.9 mbs a tad higher than the previous one.

[Normandy]

I'm willing to bet that is going to increase though Normandy, I'll be very interested to see what the next pass shows because its only in the last 30-45 mins thats its become more evident that it maybe decoupling.

I have no doubts still this becomes a hurricane, once the shear eases back a little in probably 12-24hrs time and allows the system to bend to the NW/WNW, but we shall see what happens!

Yea short term it will have to deal with this shear. But the upper level environment past today looks too good for this not to deepen substantially IMO. Itll have multiple outflow channels.

[KWT]

KWT, I"m really starting to think that this is why all the dynamic models
are keeping this a tropical storm or less. We need to be prepared obviously,
but maybe we will get lucky and only have a tropical storm on our hands as it makes
landfall...I'm getting more and more swayed in that direction.

I still think a hurricane is do able, it'll only take the shear to get into a position which will be more be more favourable for the outflow channel and this thing will be off t othe races. The problem is its moving too far to the north for now and getting buffeted by the shear, once it beds back to the NW/WNW then I think conditions will be good enough for steady strengthening. The idea of a category-2 though is starting to look a little more uncertain.

[timNms]

whats going on under LA,AL and Fl panhandle...thats a lot of energy up there.....hmmm

piece of energy from Alex broke off....I am guessing..

I'm guessing that's an effect of the ULL.

[dhweather]

Hey, where are all the folks calling for a cat 5?