ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[plasticup]

Wow, what a week this has been and continues to be. Northern Caribbean islands under a TS watch for Fiona and EC watching and waiting to see if Earl will pay them a visit. Good luck everyone. For once Florida can sit this one out!

Lynn

Yep, NHC will probably issue their first round of EC watches tonight:

GIVEN THE TRACK AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...A
HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY.

[HurrMark]

Well, I guess the NW turn has begun. In fact, over the last couple of hours it seems to have moved more north than west.

[plasticup]

Well, I guess the NW turn has begun. In fact, over the last couple of hours it seems to have moved more north than west.

I agree that it looks to be a little north of the forecast track, but short-term motion can be deceiving.

[SunnyThoughts]

[GCANE]

WV does show mid-level dry air to the west.

But if you click on the LI button, it shows Lifted Index anywhere from -8 to -3.

Plenty unstable enough to support convection.

Actually looks like some convection is popping up in it now.

Think of it as a dry-line in West TX.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

[UpTheCreek]

Until an expert chimes in and explains why I'm wrong, I am going to say that the dry air isn't going to stop this thing. It's over open, very warm water and not a lot of shear tearing at it. It's obviously going to affect it in some ways, but I don't think it's going to tear it up.

[SouthFloridawx]

[gboudx]

Dr. Jeff Masters radio show is on right now if anyone wants to listen.

http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.html

[vbhoutex]

The dry air may disrupt the Western side of Earl for a while, but it appears to me it is also moving off to the SW. Besides that there is already, as stated, convection starting to fire within that dry air to the W of Earl. Those combined suggest to me that there won't be as much disruption from the dry air as some think/hope. Of course if Earl starts ingesting that dry air into his core it will be a totally different story. Right now that doesn't appear to be happening. Not saying it won't happen but I am having my doubts about any dry air getting to the core. Also Earl is big and strong enough that he may be able to spit out the dry air with little problem. We've seen it happen before.

[SunnyThoughts]

Visible satellite looking better with each update imo Curious to see what recon finds with their next visit

[TheBurn]

-
LOOP ABOVE
-

[Macrocane]

It looks to my amateur eyes like the EWRC is now complete, I may be very wrong, microwave would be really helpful right now.

[lovestorms84]

Is Earl falling apart? My "family member" well call him Jo, (I dont want him to get in trouble for saying anything" is in the military, and they had a briefing just now, they think that Earl is falling from a 4 to most likely a 3 or even mayb 2 by late tonite early morning. They said he is churning more N than predicted so soon and VA is out of the danger zone. "If he stays on this path" we may see a little wind nothing bad and bad rip currents thats it. I will leave it at that if anyone would like to add...

[Macrocane]

Forget about it, I looked at the IR and it seems that the old eyewall is still in there.

[cpdaman]

The dry air may disrupt the Western side of Earl for a while, but it appears to me it is also moving off to the SW. Besides that there is already, as stated, convection starting to fire within that dry air to the W of Earl. Those combined suggest to me that there won't be as much disruption from the dry air as some think/hope. Of course if Earl starts ingesting that dry air into his core it will be a totally different story. Right now that doesn't appear to be happening. Not saying it won't happen but I am having my doubts about any dry air getting to the core. Also Earl is big and strong enough that he may be able to spit out the dry air with little problem. We've seen it happen before.

that convection firing in the dry air is IMO from a upper level trough pinching off ....right where those pesky little things usually do ......earl is gonna have to go around it....and since it extends Just WNW of him.....my money is on earl going well north of the next advisory points for the next 12-24 hours....perhaps it will bend back west after that prior to being influenced by the trough....but this little thing may push earl further east....and models don't handle these features well at all. THIS IMO is GREAT NEWS!

[Buck]

Is Earl falling apart? My "family member" well call him Jo, (I dont want him to get in trouble for saying anything" is in the military, and they had a briefing just now, they think that Earl is falling from a 4 to most likely a 3 or even mayb 2 by late tonite early morning. They said he is churning more N than predicted so soon and VA is out of the danger zone. "If he stays on this path" we may see a little wind nothing bad and bad rip currents thats it. I will leave it at that if anyone would like to add...

"Jo" doesn't know what he is talking about!

[Julanne]

Is Earl falling apart? My "family member" well call him Jo, (I dont want him to get in trouble for saying anything" is in the military, and they had a briefing just now, they think that Earl is falling from a 4 to most likely a 3 or even mayb 2 by late tonite early morning. They said he is churning more N than predicted so soon and VA is out of the danger zone. "If he stays on this path" we may see a little wind nothing bad and bad rip currents thats it. I will leave it at that if anyone would like to add...

I sure hope he's right for all of our sake

[cpdaman]

"Jo" doesn't know what he is talking about!

u do see the upper level feature pinching off right next to earl...right....well earl can't go thru it so he will need to go north around it and then this should be enough to push him further off the e coast...right......and models don't pick up on these things correct? any promets that could address this very soon would be a huge help right now.

[Raebie]

<waiting for a pro met to counter some of this useless speculation>

[Julanne]

"Jo" doesn't know what he is talking about!

u do see the upper level feature pinching off right next to earl...right....well earl can't go thru it so he will need to go north around it and then this should be enough to push him further off the e coast...right......and models don't pick up on these things correct? any promets that could address this very soon would be a huge help right now.

I am in Mass to so I'm very anxious for responses........but still getting prepared in case...