ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Pedro Fernández]

With the loop of the last images in high resolution, I see a little jump of the center to north, looking at the swirling of clouds in the LLCC. Just an illusion?

[Weatherfreak000]

If Alex stays stationary there for a long time it could make forecasting rather problematic.

I think the longer he stays a this pace, the farther south the landfall will be.. unless that ridge doesnt build back strong, then he will spend lots of time over the gulf before steering currents pick up again..

Potentially....or its possible it could get completely shredded apart and decoupled drifting N into the shear zone...

[Nederlander]

Does anyone have the link for the nasa high res. visible floater over Alex?

[KWT]

The only issue I feel is if the system takes too long the chances are the upper ridge could end up weakening again and before the system gets inland it could lift out again and cause a system to head up the coast, a few runs have hinted at something like that, the latest 12z GFDL for example does suggest thats possible...

[Air Force Met]

is alex moving right now or is he stationary? i cant tell...

About as close to stationary as you can get...which is why the models have shifted left.

when do you think he will start the NNW motion again?

Do not know. Wasn't expecting it to stall in the first place.

[SunnyThoughts]

I think one of the model runs a couple days ago had Alex stalling for one or two days. Just can't remember which one it was.

[Frank2]

Moist air to the east over land, dry air to the west over water (lol):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

[KWT]

Do not know. Wasn't expecting it to stall in the first place.

Its very interesting, there is slight motion to the NNW but it is so slow moving its best described as drifting, probably shows just how weak the steering currents are at the moment.

In theory as you say a slower motion means less latitude gained which means it'll bend back westwards at a lower latitude...

[HurricaneStriker]

Hmm. While looking at visible satellite imagery of Alex, I noticed what might be an eye. It's at around 20.5N and 91.8W. See for yourself.

[brunota2003]

It was the GFDL that had it stalling, then took it up toward LA/TX...which everyone dismissed as garbage.

[HouTXmetro]

ok...picking up forward speed now?

[SunnyThoughts]

Thanks Brunota, I knew I remembered one of them stalling.

[Frank2]

Interesting to note that Darby also stalled over the weekend - in both cases, a little unusual for June...

[Weatherfreak000]

It was the GFDL that had it stalling, then took it up toward LA/TX...which everyone dismissed as garbage.

Yes! I was thinking this exact thing. The GFDL kept the storm as mainly a strong end tropical storm and stalled it for about 36 hours...then shot it off towards the North.


I believe either the CMC or NAM was stalling it to, sending it North afterwards with a varied intensity.

[Nederlander]

It was the GFDL that had it stalling, then took it up toward LA/TX...which everyone dismissed as garbage.

Yes! I was thinking this exact thing. The GFDL kept the storm as mainly a strong end tropical storm and stalled it for about 36 hours...then shot it off towards the North.


I believe either the CMC or NAM was stalling it to, sending it North afterwards with a varied intensity.

It was the NAM.. poor NAM, always getting picked on, but isnt too far off on this one..

As far as imagery goes, isnt there a site that has a high res visible 1 km floater?

[cycloneye]

As far as imagery goes, isnt there a site that has a high res visible 1 km floater?

Good site of floaters.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[BigA]

As far as imagery goes, isnt there a site that has a high res visible 1 km floater?

Here: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp It's toward the bottom.

[Nederlander]

As far as imagery goes, isnt there a site that has a high res visible 1 km floater?

Here: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp It's toward the bottom.

ahh thanks.. i go on the ramsdis site all the time, i just never scrolled down to the 1km before..

[hurricaneCW]

Alex is currently over a region of ocean with relatively low total ocean heat content (about 10 - 30 kJ/cm^2). By Tuesday and Wednesday, the heat content will increase to 40 - 70 kJ/cm^2, which is high enough to allow Alex to rapidly intensify. Wind shear is currently a moderate 15 knots, and is projected by the SHIPS model to decrease to the low range, below 10 knots, on Tuesday and Wednesday. The combination of low wind shear and high ocean heat content should allow Alex to intensify into a hurricane. NHC is giving Alex a 78% chance of being a hurricane on Wednesday morning, and a 16% chance it will be a major hurricane at that time. Water vapor satellite images, though, show plenty of dry air over Texas and the adjoining waters, and this dry air may turn out to be a significant detriment to Alex. Another factor limiting Alex's intensification may be that the atmosphere is more stable than usual right now--temperatures at 200 mb are a rather warm -50°C, and are expected to warm an additional 1 - 2 degrees by Wednesday. Another factor limiting Alex's intensification may be its slow forward speed. Alex has already stalled out once, and may stall out later in its path, as well. A stalled-out storm tends to pull up cold water from the depths, limiting intensification. In short, Alex has the potential to intensify into a major hurricane, but there are enough roadblocks that I give a 20% chance of this happening.

This is quoted from Jeff Masters and the Wunder Blog. A lot of negatives that would prevent Alex from becoming too powerful and Cat 3 is definitely pushing it. It seems like dry air and its slow motion will play a huge role even if the wind shear decreases and the ocean heat content increases.

[TexasF6]

Hurricane force wind in upper levels of the NE quad according to last Vortex 66 knots= 75.9mph just a sign of him ramping up....although the surface does not even translate....i'm looking for a pressure drop soon