ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Looking much better

[abajan]

. . . Starting to see some limited convective phartage fire over the northern semicircle again . . .

Interesting word that. Does it mean what it sounds like?
EDIT: Never mind. Searching for the word on S2K has revealed the intended meaning.

[HURAKAN]

09/1145 UTC 23.2N 48.0W T1.5/1.5 93L -- Atlantic

up from 1.0

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Visible satellite images suggest that the circulation of 93L has slid under the deepest convection to its north. The 12z ATCF center fix also suggests that we are getting very close to tropical depression classification.

AL, 93, 2010080912, , BEST, 0, 232N, 480W, 30, 1012, LO,

However, as of 11:45UTC, TAFB remains as T1.0 while SAB is at T1.5. If some more organization covectively takes place, we should have 05L later today.

[Cryomaniac]

If some more organization covectively takes place, we should have 05L later today.

You'd think so.

[cycloneye]

This pass was at 8:37 AM EDT and shows partially the well defined circulation almost closed.

[wxman57]

Convection is dying out and shear seems to be on the increase. Looks like it's already past its peak as far as intensity.

[cycloneye]

So this one will amount to a not named one. If that happens,the ACE in the Atlantic will take a hit.

[Macrocane]

So if the shear is increasing why did the NHC say that conditions were going to become more favorable?

[KWT]

Because I think the NHC generally go along with the models quite heavily in those outlooks which suggest shear may calm down.

The GFS though did call for this one to be weak in the last few days though which is looking like a good call.

[tolakram]

LOOP: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=8

Gone with the wind.

[cycloneye]

The 2 PM TWO has no change in the %.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY WEAKENED...
ANY SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Aquawind]

Just could never get some decent convection over that nice LLC.. With the ULL to the west the shear is going to keep this in check for awhile. Could open up at anytime and reorganize in days.

[TexasF6]

shear will make this underachiever POOF sooner than later. I never liked this to develop. i'm with the 30% chance that it will not form into anything but a naked swirl.

[Aquawind]

I am impressed how confident they are on development. As they mention if some convection gets organized that would be about all that is needed to name it as has been the case for awhile now.

[tolakram]

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=8

Looks to me like the center has been disrupted, not nearly as well defined as this morning.

[KWT]

Probably won't develop now though there is a shot like we saw with Colin mark2 of it managing to get some sort of weak development going as it heads northwards.

[supercane]

So goes the convection, so goes the Dvorak classification. T numbers back down to 1.0 from SSD:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
09/1745 UTC 23.5N 49.2W T1.0/1.5 93L
09/1145 UTC 23.2N 48.0W T1.5/1.5 93L

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 93, 2010080918, , BEST, 0, 236N, 491W, 30, 1012, LO

[KWT]

Yeah back down to 1.0 again, not a good sign for development...