ATL: EX Tropical Depression FIVE - Models

[KWT]

It does develop it though, but yeah ECM on the 00z run wasn't really all that strong with its 00z run.

[thetruesms]

If you're looking for a change of pace, the FL DoF MM5 model scrapes it up the Florida coast to near the Tampa Bay area, then shoots it off to the west. It barely sheds its remaining extratropical characteristics and has a point where it develops a funky tripole system kind of look, so it's not handling things well at all (honestly, pretty expected).

[KFDM Meteorologist]

36 HR GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif

[HouTXmetro]

Whoa! that GFS looks WAYYY West

[Ikester]

Wow, it sure does...

[srainhoutx]

[KWT]

Fairly weak on this run as well and way west just as you say, probably going to be a E.Texas hit on this run!

[Wx_Warrior]

well...hmm.....

[KFDM Meteorologist]

What happens is the GFS isn't spilting the ridge on this run as much.

[Portastorm]

Is it all that different from yesterday's ... uh, what was it ... the 0z run? IIRC, that run had it paralleling the central Gulf Coast.

[southerngale]

And I thought the 06z GFS was just a fluke run when I posted it early this morning...

06z GFS

[Ikester]

Is it all that different from yesterday's ... uh, what was it ... the 0z run? IIRC, that run had it paralleling the central Gulf Coast.

Yes, but I think those models were initialized further north and had it bumping along the coast. Now it has it cutting across the central gulf. With the system diving southwest and the ULL pulling off to the NW, I think the models are sniffing a stronger system hints more the effect of the 500 mb flow. Like KFDM said, the ridge is not being split as much this go around (though yesterday the gfs did show an inverted trough near the upper Texas coast by Wednesday). Since the model is not bullish on development, the only logical explanation is the stronger ridge....as has been the case all freakin' summer. These models aren't handling the death ridge well at all.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I agree!

[KWT]

Is it all that different from yesterday's ... uh, what was it ... the 0z run? IIRC, that run had it paralleling the central Gulf Coast.

I know the GFDL on one of its first run had a landfall in Texas and took it nearly due west from where it formed, so thats certainly something to keep an eye on.

[Wx_Warrior]

I had a feeling early morning there would be a western shift in models.

[srainhoutx]

Rather weak 850 vort chart suggests 'landfall' in SW LA by hour 54-60 via the GFS.

[Portastorm]

Is it all that different from yesterday's ... uh, what was it ... the 0z run? IIRC, that run had it paralleling the central Gulf Coast.

Yes, but I think those models were initialized further north and had it bumping along the coast. Now it has it cutting across the central gulf. With the system diving southwest and the ULL pulling off to the NW, I think the models are sniffing a stronger system hints more the effect of the 500 mb flow. Like KFDM said, the ridge is not being split as much this go around (though yesterday the gfs did show an inverted trough near the upper Texas coast by Wednesday). Since the model is not bullish on development, the only logical explanation is the stronger ridge....as has been the case all freakin' summer. These models aren't handling the death ridge well at all.

Good points Ikester. Thanks for the clarification. You're sure right about "the death ridge."

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Sabine Pass

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_066l.gif

[rockyman]

the 12z Canadian-Regional takes the system NNW/NW toward Apalachicola, then does a left turn and skirts the coast all the way into New Orleans:

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_fo ... 12_....jpg

[Ikester]

Ponder this...**IF** this thing blew up into a Cat 2 or 3 (god forbid worse), residents from Texas to Louisiana have 2-3 days to prepare and evacuate. Talk about an evacuation nightmare...especially for the Houston area with 6 million people!