ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[LowndesCoFire]

Anyone recall if Earl even remotely resembles Hugo?

[dixiebreeze]

Thank you Lowndes County. Just looked at Hugo's track and it eerily resembles Earl.

Hurricane Hugo was a Cape Verde hurricane that became a Category 5 (on the Saffir-Simpson Scale) storm in the Atlantic, then raked the northeast Caribbean as a Category 4 storm before turning northwest between an upper-level high pressure system to the north and upper-level low pressure system to the south. Hugo made landfall just north of Charleston, South Carolina at Sullivan's Island around midnight September 22, 1989 as a Category 4 storm with estimated maximum sustained winds of 135-140 mph and a minimum central pressure of 934 mb (27.58 inches of Hg). Hugo produced tremendous wind and storm surge damage along the coast and even produced hurricane force wind gusts all the way into western North Carolina. In fact, Hugo produced the highest storm tide heights ever recorded along the U.S. East Coast.

[texbosoxfan]

when was the last time Mass and NE experienced 90 MPH winds? I ask because of the tree damage that comes when an area hasn't been hit in a while, I know central florida got devastated because we hadn't had a storm in 20 plus year with over hurricane force winds and most of the damages came from trees and big old branches falling...the storms afterwards did more roof damage caused they stayed a while but overall all the old trees had already been knocked down

I think it was 1991 with Hurricane Bob which hit as a Cat 2. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong....We have massive old oak trees all around my house

I was on the Cape (Orleans), during Bob and I don't think we saw sustained winds over 75-80 mph. Lots and lots of trees down though, but nothing catastrophic.

[dixiebreeze]

Thank you Lowndes County. Just looked at Hugo's track and it eerily resembles Earl.

Hurricane Hugo was a Cape Verde hurricane that became a Category 5 (on the Saffir-Simpson Scale) storm in the Atlantic, then raked the northeast Caribbean as a Category 4 storm before turning northwest between an upper-level high pressure system to the north and upper-level low pressure system to the south. Hugo made landfall just north of Charleston, South Carolina at Sullivan's Island around midnight September 22, 1989 as a Category 4 storm with estimated maximum sustained winds of 135-140 mph and a minimum central pressure of 934 mb (27.58 inches of Hg). Hugo produced tremendous wind and storm surge damage along the coast and even produced hurricane force wind gusts all the way into western North Carolina. In fact, Hugo produced the highest storm tide heights ever recorded along the U.S. East Coast.

Here is Hugo's track into the Carolinas -- scroll down:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/chs/events/hugo.shtml

[UpTheCreek]

We're now under a hurricane watch, but I doubt my town will get anything more that light tropical storm winds, if that. However, being on the water, surge could be a major issue.

[I-wall]

We're now under a hurricane watch, but I doubt my town will get anything more that light tropical storm winds, if that. However, being on the water, surge could be a major issue.

If you're under a Hurricane watch, it's quite likely that you will experience hurricane conditions. And, if you're in the cone, there's still a possibility that you will take a direct hit. Don't let your guard down, this isnt over yet. Good luck, stay safe.

[cpdaman]

well the 12z euro does take the system closer to the coast....at least from what i interpret.....

[Air Force Met]

AFM....nobody is saying it HAS moved more N than forecast....we are saying won't the Upper level trough.....1. shear this with the potential to weaken it more than forecast...2 put a greater chance of a more northerly track beginning shortly as it can't bump thru this thing. If you were referring to these points than i apologize for redundancy....so....do you not think the ULL will bump earl further north than forecast than the short (12-18 hour time frame)

That's not what I read...nor what I responded to: "They said he is churning more N than predicted "

They said (past tense)...He is (meaning right now he is going more N than predicted).

Go back and read the original post that I responded to.

As far as the short term track...Earl may go a little to the right of the track in the very short term as this low digs SW. The shear will cause some problems...but not a lot. Earl is a BIG system. In 24 hours...the trof/ULL will have dug sufficiently far enough SW so that it will be a very favorable pattern over earl.

Track: The ULL will cause shear and may impact SOME northward motion in the short term. However...this is strickly an upper level feature. It is not stacked down into the mid levels. There is still a lot of ridging over the eastern US and north of earl.

So a short answer to your question: Some shear...but not a lot...and in 24-36 hrs...pretty favorable upper air. Not that much of a shift to the right of track possible. Any shift to the right may be temporary. Any slowing of the trof...or speeding up of earl would have MUCH more impact on the track...taking it left. Do I think it will stay offshore? Yes. But...I will not be dogmatic and say it won't scrap the entire eastern seaboard from NC to Maine. That is a possibility.

[UpTheCreek]

We're now under a hurricane watch, but I doubt my town will get anything more that light tropical storm winds, if that. However, being on the water, surge could be a major issue.

If you're under a Hurricane watch, it's quite likely that you will experience hurricane conditions. And, if you're in the cone, there's still a possibility that you will take a direct hit. Don't let your guard down, this isnt over yet. Good luck, stay safe.

I am just doubtful....it would have to take a turn westward for us to get hurricane winds. Not being non chalant about it, anything can happen. We're watching it close and we're prepared.

Don't forget, a hurricane watch isn't the same as a hurricane warning!

[cpdaman]

thank you very much sir....(AFM)...what a great board!

[AJF0602]

there's one model that has shifted and puts North Carolina in line for a direct hit.

[KWT]

Overall Earl still looks like a good system, it probably is weakening a little right now and conditions aren't that good but its not that awful really, still probably good enough to keep this a major.

[UpTheCreek]

But...I will not be dogmatic and say it won't scrap the entire eastern seaboard from NC to Maine. That is a possibility.

Well, dang.....I was right there with ya almost to the end!!!

[plasticup]

there's one model that has shifted and puts North Carolina in line for a direct hit.
http://i.imwx.com/images/sat/regions/spec_sat10_600_en.jpg

But it's definitely an outlier. What model is that? NOGAPS?

[I-wall]

We're now under a hurricane watch, but I doubt my town will get anything more that light tropical storm winds, if that. However, being on the water, surge could be a major issue.

If you're under a Hurricane watch, it's quite likely that you will experience hurricane conditions. And, if you're in the cone, there's still a possibility that you will take a direct hit. Don't let your guard down, this isnt over yet. Good luck, stay safe.

I am just doubtful....it would have to take a turn westward for us to get hurricane winds. Not being non chalant about it, anything can happen. We're watching it close and we're prepared.

Don't forget, a hurricane watch isn't the same as a hurricane warning!

I think the main difference between a watch and a warning is the time frame in which the hurricane conditions will occur. I'd say it's likely that your hurricane watch will be converted to a warning within the next day or two provided that there isnt a significant track shift to the east. Glad you're prepared and watching this, hopefully it doesnt get too bad for you. In any case, we will look forward to you posting observations from the area Stay safe!

[webke]

there's one model that has shifted and puts North Carolina in line for a direct hit.
http://i.imwx.com/images/sat/regions/spec_sat10_600_en.jpg

But it's definitely an outlier. What model is that? NOGAPS?

nogaps gfdl

[SCHawkFan]

Joe Bastardi joining Sean Hannity on the radio in one minute.

[TropicalWXMA]

there's one model that has shifted and puts North Carolina in line for a direct hit.

Oh God..... TWC.

[AJF0602]

It's the NGFDL.

[GCANE]

Rumors of Earl's death have been greatly exaggerated