ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Brent]

New track

[Wx_Warrior]

slow mover is going to bring floods to south & central tex.

[Macrocane]

It looks like Alex has become better organized in the last couple of hours with convection wrapping around the center again.
By the way, Alex mantains a field of moderate to strong convection in the Pacific coast of Central America that has produced heavy rains in El Salvador today, 3 deaths have been reported so far.

[BigA]

NNW at 5 seems about right to me. I don't think it's completely still.

[bghowie]

Is the convection that is being seen in the GoM the result of alex or something else? I think this will be a storm to effect the whole gulf no matter where it hits. just my .02

There's an upper level low over SELA / Southern Miss that is contributing to the massive amount of weather in the Gulf. Alex brought a great deal of moisture into the gulf, give him credit.

credit given...so the storms we are seeing blown into SC is somewhat a result of Alex or am i splitting hairs? The storms last night moved in a SE direction, i kind of see that happening again. Just a novice here.

[jlauderdal]

It was the GFDL that had it stalling, then took it up toward LA/TX...which everyone dismissed as garbage.

gfdl had it on the north gulf coast, it has hardly sniffed anything out, gfdl has been poor compared to the euro

[tolakram]

Convection near the center ever so slowly building.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=20

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rb.html

look at that vigorous ULL racing towards Florida like a Buzz saw...I wonder will that be a player if Alex doesn't getting moving?

[brunota2003]

It was the GFDL that had it stalling, then took it up toward LA/TX...which everyone dismissed as garbage.

gfdl had it on the north gulf coast, it has hardly sniffed anything out, gfdl has been poor compared to the euro

That mention was specifically in reference to what model had it stalled out in this general area...one of the runs of the GFDL did indeed stall it out in this area before taking off to the NNW/N

[bayoubebe]

Quick question from a VERY weather amateur poster here, we are getting lots of rain here in SE LA. with some wind. You can see storms in the gulf. Do these have anything to do with Alex? Outer bands, etc?

[Countrygirl911]

ok questions i an in southwest mississippi and we are getting some nasty storms and wind and they are comming up from LA it this being caused by the outer bands of Alex

[Weatherfreak000]

Got it give it to 'Freak....he's consistent & not giving up on his beliefs.

Its easy to be consistent when your following trends. This storm is moving at an average of about .2N less and about 1 degree W of where it should be. It's clearly being disrupted by building shear as well..instead of pushing away from the shear zone, Alex is stuck.

On the contrary, it was the mistake of many members here to assume that Alex going over the Yucatan was going to be consistent with the models. I have seen many various solutions when storms cross the Yucatan and defied all logic and went against every model's solutions.

My point is when it comes to this, I personally try and base my opinion on what is occurring presently. Currently I see nothing to support any model solution.

[Wx_Warrior]

So Alex will end up in Florida?

[Tireman4]

So Alex will end up in Florida?

Beg your pardon?

[Weatherfreak000]

So Alex will end up in Florida?

The potential for such a thing would have to include an entirely new basis of thinking for the forecast of this system. I believe that is perhaps possible were Alex to stall out significantly and dissipate. I remember alot of models forecasting Alex to dissipate so I wouldnt be too surprised if that is becoming more of a possibility.

[Nimbus]

The weakness over east Texas/LA is starting to lift and Alex is slowly starting to fill in again. There is a lot of moisture currently being pulled north by that weakening ULL. With Alex moving so slowly now are any models forecasting a second short wave before landfall?

[Sanibel]

We'll have a better idea of how quickly it reforms tomorrow. So far all systems go from the structure winding up again.

Oh yeah, the black IR is back...

[wx247]

So Alex will end up in Florida?

The potential for such a thing would have to include an entirely new basis of thinking for the forecast of this system. I believe that is perhaps possible were Alex to stall out significantly and dissipate. I remember alot of models forecasting Alex to dissipate so I wouldnt be too surprised if that is becoming more of a possibility.

I have no seen basis or reasoning for suggesting anything remotely close to a Florida landfall. Additionally, these types of posts need a disclaimer on them.

[jasons2k]

Latest from Jeff L:

At 400pm a tropical storm watch is issued for the TX coast from Port O Connor to Baffin Bay, TX.

A hurricane watch remains in effect from Baffin Bay, TX to La Cruz, MX including the Laguna Madre

Potentially large and dangerous hurricane to track toward the N MX/S TX coastline.

Discussion:

Alex has shown little organization today and recent recon. fixes suggest no pressure falls. The storm is over shallow waters and is likely upwelling cooler water to the surface. Additionally, a batch of mid level dry air may have entrained into the NW side of the circulation which is stunting thunderstorms near the center. Overall the pattern will become increasingly favorable for intensification and Alex is still forecast to become a category 2 hurricane prior to landfall.

Track:

Latest full 12Z and recent 18Z guidance is shifted southward and are now is good agreement on the ridge over the SE US building back westward and developing a more WNW track for Alex beyond 36 hours. Effectively the 400pm NHC track is shifted a touch to the south and maintains a landfall in N MX about 50 miles S of the Rio Grande River. There is much better agreement than previous model runs and forecast confidence on the track is increasing. Other slight change this afternoon will be to bring the center of the storm to the coast faster than earlier thought with landfall now expected late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

Intensity:

Alex has a large circulation and well define inner core structure, but this large nature may be preventing much intensification similar to hurricane Ike. On the other hand, conditions over the western Gulf are favorable for intensification with increasing upper level outflow aloft and warm sea surface along the track. NHC remains robust and mostly more aggressive than most of the intensity guidance. I see no reason to disagree with the NCH intensity forecast and Alex will likely attain category 2 status prior to landfall.

Impacts:

No significant changes to the impacts from the noon update. Will need to add tropical storm conditions to the watch outline area...or from Matagorda Bay southward. Based on the current track, it seems hard pressed to get TS force winds into Matagorda Bay and really north of Port Aransas. South of Rockport TS force winds will be possible including metro Corpus Christi with hurricane conditions across the lower TX coast. Given the current track, the strong NE part of the hurricane will be aimed at the populated South Padre Island, Port Isabel and Brownsville area.

Will follow the HPC lead and go with 3-5" along the coast and inland to roughly US 59 with isolated amounts upwards of 7" possible. Inland of US 59 rainfall amounts of 1-3" will be likely.

Feeder bands will start to impact the coast Wednesday and increase in intensity and coverage Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as Alex makes landfall. These feeder bands will have a threat of producing tornadoes.

Will need to take a look at impacts harder in the morning and start getting more detailed as landfall closes in.

Actions:

Residents in the hurricane watch area should begin their hurricane preparations and evacuate if ordered to do so.

[Weatherfreak000]

So Alex will end up in Florida?

The potential for such a thing would have to include an entirely new basis of thinking for the forecast of this system. I believe that is perhaps possible were Alex to stall out significantly and dissipate. I remember alot of models forecasting Alex to dissipate so I wouldnt be too surprised if that is becoming more of a possibility.

I have no seen basis or reasoning for suggesting anything remotely close to a Florida landfall. Additionally, these types of posts need a disclaimer on them.

Read the bolded portion. I have already addressed this issue. I was asked a question and so I answered.