ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[KWT]

Convection near the center ever so slowly building.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=20

Yep convection is steadily building, also note how the convection further north is starting to spread southwards, though whether thats a sign of the shear strengthening and blowing the tops southwards again or a signal for the system starting to tighten up is something I'm not sure about but it needs watching.

Looks decent though right now it doesn't look all that impressive on the IR imagery, once that shear eases down sometime in the next 12-24hrs then conditions should improve for it.

[Explorer93]

Pensacola is seeing lots of heavy rain. We are expecting another outerband to come in. Anyone know if this thing even has a potential to stall out and come towards Florida?

[SunnyThoughts]

[lester]

Pensacola is seeing lots of heavy rain. We are expecting another outerband to come in. Anyone know if this thing even has a potential to stall out and come towards Florida?

0% chance

[ConvergenceZone]

Man it looks horrible. I can't even tell where the center is. Looks like a mess to me...

[funster]

Man it looks horrible. I can't even tell where the center is. Looks like a mess to me...

Looks better on the visible satellite:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

[ConvergenceZone]

Looks better on the visible satellite:

True, it does look much better on the visible...Thanks for the link.

[KWT]

Vis.imagery loops showing convection developing quite strongly just east of the center right now nd for the first time in a while blocking out the LLC.

Probably just needs a good Dmax to get going again. Center still looks like it maybe just drifting a touch tothe north but its more or less stopped, maybe the convection over the top may finally allow it to respond to the deeper steering currents a little.

[Texas Snowman]

Those are some very strong words, coming from you, AFM. You're not typically one to swing too high or low, in my time on these boards. Interesting and sobering.

I wrote a little note in the recon thread about the pressure change. Its likely diurnal. I wouldn't get too excited.

Here is what I said: "Diurnal changes. 10 am is usually the diurnal max for pressure...accounting for a 2-3 MB increase in pressure from 4 am - 10/11 am. 4 PM is usually the diurnal min and you can get a 2-3 mb drop during that time."

In actuality, Alex's current condition ought to make us all very concerned. The poster who got a little crucified earlier was really not that far off when he said it could be a cat 4. The same thing was said this morning by an official source. I wont say where...and when...but it was talked about. Fact is, Alex is sucking in dry air off of Mexico...its getting sheared some...it lacks a great inner core...its sitting over some of the lowest TCHP and coolest SST's in the Gulf...

And it has a 989 mb pressure which is steady/falling. It FELL 5 MB over LAND...

As a Pro-Met...that gives me a LOT of concern. I do not look at him as something ragged or pathetic...disorganized. I am kinda of worried that once he gets the tools he needs...its Katy bar the door.

I see where Bastardi is thinking perhaps a Cat 3. I know the NHC discussion notes that no model is currently suggesting major status, but IMO it is plausible able given the notations above.

[KWT]

I'd agree TS, if you look at the actual structure of the system in the Vis imagery you can see really it just needs a big convective blow-up over the center and it'll be well on its way...

Those outer bands must have been stealing some of the energy from the center as well come to think about it.

[mpic]

Just got home from work...Hou/Gal still needs to be on alert, but maybe not?

[KWT]

mpic, I think the odds of SE Texas getting hit are now rather low but you do still certainly need to keep an eye on it, sometimes very unexpected things happen in the tropics.

[HouTXmetro]

Just got home from work...Hou/Gal still needs to be on alert, but maybe not?

of course but u can breath easier today...all the models have trended south towards brownsville and mexico.

[mpic]

Thanks, always on my toes...got ready for evac this weekend just in case...won't have to rush later in the season.

[mpic]

Guess that was confusing...things looking better.

[KWT]

By the way for those of you that think this is struggling, just remember its in shelf water, with low end moderate shear over the top of it *and* injesting more stable air in from the nearby Yucatan and probably Mexico as well, and yet it still has a good tight strucure.

Once this moves NW and the shear lessens, 3 negative factors which are only just keeping things in check will be gone, 24-36hrs will all that will be needed for this to get well into the cat-1/2 range and maybe higher.

[wx247]

Rainfall amounts across the Yucatan have to be fairly high. Anyone have any specifics on that aspect of Alex?

[Texas Snowman]

By the way for those of you that think this is struggling, just remember its in shelf water, with low end moderate shear over the top of it *and* injesting more stable air in from the nearby Yucatan and probably Mexico as well, and yet it still has a good tight strucure.

Once this moves NW and the shear lessens, 3 negative factors which are only just keeping things in check will be gone, 24-36hrs will all that will be needed for this to get well into the cat-1/2 range and maybe higher.

This isn't official of course, but I think it's very possible for this to go high end Cat 2 or maybe even low end Cat 3. And a low end Cat 3 hitting just south of Brownsville isn't good news. See Beulah in 1967.

[KWT]

Yeah I'd be very interested in knowing as well wx247...

GFS runs have both moved northwards on the 18z a little bit, just means at least S.Texas isn't out of the woods so do not take your eye of this convective ball down there!

[jasons2k]

Yes, it's looking better for the Upper Texas Coast. Can't go so far as to say "we're out of the woods" until Alex gets moving again....but if the ridge does build-in as projected and Alex starts to move-out as projected, there is really no place to go except to curve inland towards northern Mexico.

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