ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[ConvergenceZone]

I am curious how much further south the models will shift. It is
looking more and more like a Mexico storm

[I-wall]

I am curious how much further south the models will shift. It is
looking more and more like a Mexico storm

I thought someone just said the last model run shifted slightly north?

[Wx_Warrior]

18z GFS operational just north of brownsville...18z GFS para model a little further south.

[Flyinman]

Jasons...What do you think of our potential rainfall even with a landfall in Northern Mexico? It appears Alex will be a sizable storm and we need rain but not anything too bad.

Thanks.

[MGC]

Once Alex gets moving its condition will improve. Alex has been just about sitting over the same spot, upwelling has begun to hamper it. Once it moves off the shelf and into deeper water convection should take off. Alex is also sucking air off of Mexico which is hindering convection. Once Alex gets into the mid GOM the TC should respond. Still thinking south Texas. So far my track forecast is spot on, as I forecast at NNW motion......MGC

[Texas Snowman]

I am curious how much further south the models will shift. It is
looking more and more like a Mexico storm

I thought someone just said the last model run shifted slightly north?

The last model run of the GFS model I believe. But the trend today has certainly been further south for the most part.

While this is totally unofficial, I'm with Jasons - I think the Upper Texas Coast, while not totally out of the woods yet, can breath easier tonight.

Middle Coast, not so much yet.

Lower coast and the Rio Grande Valley, better heed the hurricane watch and get ready.

All while realizing that nothing is etched in stone yet.

Case in point on that etched in stone comment: Before Dallas' huge record setting snowstorm this last winter, I distinctly remember that a very well respected person on this board said in essence "no way" it would happen just two or three days before the event. But all 12+ inches of it happened.

[ROCK]

18z GFS operational just north of brownsville...18z GFS para model a little further south.

the operational also goes inland and rides the coast ala the NAM....

[wxman57]

Jasons...What do you think of our potential rainfall even with a landfall in Northern Mexico? It appears Alex will be a sizable storm and we need rain but not anything too bad.

Thanks.

Such a large and slow-moving hurricane could easily drop 20-25 inches of rain or more. That includes the lower Rio Grande Valley even if it does strike 40-50 miles south of Brownsville. If the radius of maximum winds is in the 40-50 mile range at landfall, then the max surge could go right up the Rio Grande, inundating the lower TX coast. Combine that with the heavy rain and you have a disaster in the making for south Texas - EVEN if the center moves ashore south of Brownsville.

[bob rulz]

There looks like a big blow-up of convection directly over the center in the last hour or so. It's also definitely wrapping around the north and west side much better than it was earlier today. I think it's resumed intensification.

[Texas Snowman]

18z GFS operational just north of brownsville...18z GFS para model a little further south.

While not a good scenario for the fishing town of Port Mansfield (I have friends that live there) a landfall just north of Brownsville would be a better scenario for much of the Lower Tx Coast and the Rio Grande Valley region.

That would mean that the right front quad would go in over the sparsely inhabited King Ranch much like Allen and Bret did.

Lots of deer, turkeys, wild hogs, rattlesnakes, quail, and cattle there but not too many people.

[southerngale]

I asked in the models thread, but probably should have asked here: The ridge that is supposed to build in the central U.S. and keep Alex from progressing north - how long is it forecast to stick around?

[South Texas Storms]

Jasons...What do you think of our potential rainfall even with a landfall in Northern Mexico? It appears Alex will be a sizable storm and we need rain but not anything too bad.

Thanks.

Such a large and slow-moving hurricane could easily drop 20-25 inches of rain or more. That includes the lower Rio Grande Valley even if it does strike 40-50 miles south of Brownsville. If the radius of maximum winds is in the 40-50 mile range at landfall, then the max surge could go right up the Rio Grande, inundating the lower TX coast. Combine that with the heavy rain and you have a disaster in the making for south Texas - EVEN if the center moves ashore south of Brownsville.

wxman57, if the center of alex makes landfall right on the tex/mex border as a cat. 2 hurricane, can you tell me what conditions i could possibly expect here in san antonio?

[SunnyThoughts]

[jabman98]

Houston area folks, even if Alex goes ashore south of us, we'll still be on the dirty side of the storm. Of course it depends how far south and so forth as to whether we see much effect from it, but just because a storm doesn't hit squarely in one's area doesn't mean there won't potentially be some issues related to it.

[Texas Snowman]

Jasons...What do you think of our potential rainfall even with a landfall in Northern Mexico? It appears Alex will be a sizable storm and we need rain but not anything too bad.

Thanks.

Such a large and slow-moving hurricane could easily drop 20-25 inches of rain or more. That includes the lower Rio Grande Valley even if it does strike 40-50 miles south of Brownsville. If the radius of maximum winds is in the 40-50 mile range at landfall, then the max surge could go right up the Rio Grande, inundating the lower TX coast. Combine that with the heavy rain and you have a disaster in the making for south Texas - EVEN if the center moves ashore south of Brownsville.

You are so very correct Wxman57. I'm very worried about this scenario for the RGV and I'm really glad someone of your professional caliber is pointing this out.

A track south of Brownsville could be just disastrous in terms of storm surge for the RGV - if Alex doesn't go in far enough south that is.

And the rainfall could be disastrous too - I think from what I've understood, the soils are pretty saturated down there from spring rains this year.

[mpic]

Houston area folks, even if Alex goes ashore south of us, we'll still be on the dirty side of the storm. Of course it depends how far south and so forth as to whether we see much effect from it, but just because a storm doesn't hit squarely in one's area doesn't mean there won't potentially be some issues related to it.

Good point and with it being as dry as it has been, flooding might be a problem since we do that so well.

[jlauderdal]

looks as good as it has all day, i would expect an intensity increase to cat 1 tomorrow, easily

[summersquall]

Alex's position as of 10 am today : 20.3 N 91.7 W
as of 5 pm today: 20.5 N 91.8 W
(with accuracies within 20 nm) and decreasing rate of motion with each advisory...

Isn't that virtually stalling or stationary over that 6 hour period?
(new kid here )

[KWT]

Jasons...What do you think of our potential rainfall even with a landfall in Northern Mexico? It appears Alex will be a sizable storm and we need rain but not anything too bad.

Thanks.

Such a large and slow-moving hurricane could easily drop 20-25 inches of rain or more. That includes the lower Rio Grande Valley even if it does strike 40-50 miles south of Brownsville. If the radius of maximum winds is in the 40-50 mile range at landfall, then the max surge could go right up the Rio Grande, inundating the lower TX coast. Combine that with the heavy rain and you have a disaster in the making for south Texas - EVEN if the center moves ashore south of Brownsville.

Yep indeed this is a very key point IMO, the 18z Para GFS almost brings this system to a complete stop overland and you'd see some huge rains for sure.

Convection is trying to develop close to the center and the first convective burst, still has a way to go yet though before we can say its strengthening, I agree with the idea that its going to have to get moving for it to strengthen, because veen without the other factors upwelling must be occuring in that shelf water.

[rockyman]

Steering flow now vs. 12 hours ago: