ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[UpTheCreek]

We've got another problem developing here, I think. There could be Fujiwhara effect, where two cyclones that get close enough to each other begin rotating around the midpoint of the line between their centers. This usually starts happening when the centers of the two cyclones are within 800 nm of each other, and the centers of these two are now about 650 nautical miles apart from what I see. When they are roughly equal in intensity they will rotate around each other in a cyclonic fashion. If one is much weaker than the other, the weaker one rotates around the stronger one and often eventually gets absorbed into it, but while that is happening the path of the stronger one can become erratic.
In this case that could mean that Earl may start trying to move west or southwestward, but due to the weakness of Fiona, I wouldn't think it would be be significant. At any rate, it's a wild card that should be watched, because if you watch the latest satellite loops, Fiona is really moving in quite close to Earl now.

Boy, if that came to fruition, we'd be talking about Earl for many years! Thanks for that lesson, ozonepete, that's really pretty wild!

[dixiebreeze]

Here he goes: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html

[ozonepete]

We've got another problem developing here, I think. There could be Fujiwhara effect, where two cyclones that get close enough to each other begin rotating around the midpoint of the line between their centers. This usually starts happening when the centers of the two cyclones are within 800 nm of each other, and the centers of these two are now about 650 nautical miles apart from what I see. When they are roughly equal in intensity they will rotate around each other in a cyclonic fashion. If one is much weaker than the other, the weaker one rotates around the stronger one and often eventually gets absorbed into it, but while that is happening the path of the stronger one can become erratic.
In this case that could mean that Earl may start trying to move west or southwestward, but due to the weakness of Fiona, I wouldn't think it would be be significant. At any rate, it's a wild card that should be watched, because if you watch the latest satellite loops, Fiona is really moving in quite close to Earl now.

Boy, if that came to fruition, we'd be talking about Earl for many years! Thanks for that lesson, ozonepete, that's really pretty wild!

LOL that is pretty funny, because when it occurs it really can extend the life of a tropical cyclone quite a bit. They start doing loops that take days to complete... (Though that only happens if they are near equal in strength.)

[ncbird]

We've got another problem developing here, I think. There could be Fujiwhara effect, where two cyclones that get close enough to each other begin rotating around the midpoint of the line between their centers. This usually starts happening when the centers of the two cyclones are within 800 nm of each other, and the centers of these two are now about 650 nautical miles apart from what I see. When they are roughly equal in intensity they will rotate around each other in a cyclonic fashion. If one is much weaker than the other, the weaker one rotates around the stronger one and often eventually gets absorbed into it, but while that is happening the path of the stronger one can become erratic.
In this case that could mean that Earl may start trying to move west or southwestward, but due to the weakness of Fiona, I wouldn't think it would be be significant. At any rate, it's a wild card that should be watched, because if you watch the latest satellite loops, Fiona is really moving in quite close to Earl now.

Boy, if that came to fruition, we'd be talking about Earl for many years! Thanks for that lesson, ozonepete, that's really pretty wild!

LOL that is pretty funny, because when it occurs it really can extend the life of a tropical cyclone quite a bit. They start doing loops that take days to complete... (Though that only happens if they are near equal in strength.)

Learned something new today. Thanks for the info.

[hurricaneCW]

He's pulling pretty far north right now. I don't know if that's a good thing or bad thing. The good thing would be that it wouldn't head as far west as the track but that would be counteracted by the fact that the storm could be further north/close to N.C. before the curve to the NNE/NE. Right now I'd say the short term heading is 320-325.

[TropicalWXMA]

We've got another problem developing here, I think. There could be Fujiwhara effect, where two cyclones that get close enough to each other begin rotating around the midpoint of the line between their centers. This usually starts happening when the centers of the two cyclones are within 800 nm of each other, and the centers of these two are now about 650 nautical miles apart from what I see. When they are roughly equal in intensity they will rotate around each other in a cyclonic fashion. If one is much weaker than the other, the weaker one rotates around the stronger one and often eventually gets absorbed into it, but while that is happening the path of the stronger one can become erratic.
In this case that could mean that Earl may start trying to move west or southwestward, but due to the weakness of Fiona, I wouldn't think it would be be significant. At any rate, it's a wild card that should be watched, because if you watch the latest satellite loops, Fiona is really moving in quite close to Earl now.

You can clearly see the bulk of the NW of Fiona beginning to get absorbed by earl here - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

[Hurricane Andrew]

Is it just me, or is it headed NW to NNW now?

[hurricanedude]

well read the 5pm advisory...moving NW at 14mph

[UpTheCreek]

I don't believe it's heading more north. I think it jogged a bit north getting itself together again, but if you look at the next forecast point in the link of the loop above, you'll find that although it's a hair higher in lat, it's on the forecast point direction again.

[capepoint]

[quote Curious as to whether the flooding warnings are more storm surge than rainfall.[/quote]

there is coastal flooding and the flash flooding, two different things..one comes from the sky the other comes from the ocean, both are a problem if you are in the affected area[/quote]
The reason I ask is that won't most of the EC be on the dry side as opposed to the dirty side....how close does Earl have to come to cause widespread flooding due to rain?[/quote]

I was on the east side of Floyd when it hit NC. We had rain but not very much. Those west of Floyd, from Rocky Mount south to Fayetteville recieved up to 20 inches, had historic flooding. So the west is not always the dry side, but it is usually the less windy side.[/quote]

The problem with Floyd is that it followed Dennis' two strikes by a week or two. dennis had dumped a lot of rain that did not have time to empty out thru the river system.

not sure where you were talking abount flood warnings but a lot of the flooding in this type storm in eastern NC VA and MD is because the constant northerly winds push the waters of the NC sounds (and the Chesapeke bay in Va and MD) down towards the south. this results in flooding along the south end of the Sounds and Bay and the rivers that run to them. Also the outer banks are really low so that a surge of 5 feet or so will inundate most of the island. this surge can come from the ocean and/or the sounds or even both depending on wind directions during the storm.

[cheezyWXguy]

Is it just me, or is it headed NW to NNW now?

hard to tell, with the old eyewall looping around inside the new eyewall. Looks like the storm is trying to get its act together again, and that eye might start clearing out in a couple hours. Then, we will know what direction its moving but for now the changes in structure can be quite deceiving.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Thanks for all the answers!

it seems to be a wobbly storm all right!

[KWT]

Is it just me, or is it headed NW to NNW now?

It sure does look that way to me to be honest, it seems to be on the right side of the NHC track now anyway though it could just be stair stepping of course.

[plasticup]

Any estimates on his speed? To my untrained eye he seems to have accelerated.

[capepoint]

Interesting analysis from a local Eastern NC TV met with about 25 years experience here on the NC coast. Copied from WCTI12.com

StormTrack 12 Planning
As we move toward Tuesday evening, we continue to track Hurricane Earl...still at 135 mph category 4 hurricane. The forecast track from the Tropical Prediction Center still keeps Earl offshore of eastern NC late Thursday night and early Friday morning. That forecast is based on a cold front moving from the central parts of the US to the east coast and nudging Earl and the high pressure system offshore that is steering Earl....to the east...and that would result in Earl turning to the north and running parallel to the Outer Banks rather than making a direct landfall. One of my concerns right now is that the front is not moving...it seems to be stuck in the center of the US...which leaves the high pressure offshore as the main player is steering Earl...and that means a more northwestward track....closer to the NC coast. At the present, it is prudent for me to stick with the TPC's forecast track, but if that front doesn't start to move eastward, I will have to re-evaluate that position and try to figure out just how much further to the west (closer to the coast) that it might move.
All that having been said, let's talk about what kind of effects we could see locally if it follows the TPX track. We can expect 40-50 mph winds (gusting to 60) across Outer Banks Dare and Hyde counties late Thursday into Friday with 30-40 mph winds along the Carteret and Onslow county beaches.Seas along the beachfront areas of the Outer Banks will likely run 15-20 feet. Storm surge along the Outer Banks could run 5-8 feet with 5-6 feet of storm surge on the sound side of Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands as the storm departs. In Carteret County, it would be more likel 3-4 feet of soundside flooding affecting mainly Cedar Island and Long Bay. That could cause some issues with flooding on SR12 between the North River and Cedar Island. It is important to note, that on the present track, there will be very little wind, rain or storms west of US17 (so Williamston to Greenville to Kinston to Beaulaville) experiencing any sort of Tropical Storm or Hurricane conditions on Thursday or Friday. Last, but not least, stay in touch....a lot could be changing if the front doesn't push Earl offshore as forecast...if that is the case, we would be tracking the storm much closer to the coast and with much greater effects in the HURRICANE WATCH counties which include Onslow, Carteret, Craven, Pamlico, Beaufort, Hyde, Washington, Tyrrell, Dare and Chowan counties.

....things that make you say hummmmm.....

[SunnyThoughts]

[cpdaman]

i think he's tryin' to book it around the upper level feature to his west.....i bet his four hour motion is around 320 ....anyone have a take on it.....and yes i think this movement is temporary.....so if a promet has this don't be afraid to post ...thinking the board will yell "all clear"

[KWT]

Starting to look better again there ST, eye starting to become a little clearer.

Also does seem to be picking up more latitude now though its still that far right of the NHC track really.

[Macrocane]

Earl is looking better this evening, the structure is more symmetric and the eye is trying to open again, I guess a little strengthening is not out of question.

[hurricaneCW]

When will recon start to depart?