ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[ROCK]

there is the opening....and if you look there is definitly some northly drift even east of N...

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[Nederlander]

Is this the next trough moving in from the NW of Washington state?

[CrazyC83]

I am curious how much further south the models will shift. It is
looking more and more like a Mexico storm

I thought someone just said the last model run shifted slightly north?

The last model run of the GFS model I believe. But the trend today has certainly been further south for the most part.

While this is totally unofficial, I'm with Jasons - I think the Upper Texas Coast, while not totally out of the woods yet, can breath easier tonight.

Middle Coast, not so much yet.

Lower coast and the Rio Grande Valley, better heed the hurricane watch and get ready.

All while realizing that nothing is etched in stone yet.

Case in point on that etched in stone comment: Before Dallas' huge record setting snowstorm this last winter, I distinctly remember that a very well respected person on this board said in essence "no way" it would happen just two or three days before the event. But all 12+ inches of it happened.

Great points on things being quickly able to change. If it crawls and grabs the trough really late though, it would be exposed to a wall of shear which would likely tear it to shreds. I can't see it able to make landfall east of Galveston without being impacted severely by the shear. Still, a landfall between Galveston and Corpus Christi is certainly a plausible scenario. I'm thinking the stall out then tear apart scenario is a possible one too though...

[KWT]

rockyman, you can see that upper high building in from the west, the weakness is still there but you can see why the steering currents are weak there is nothing really to move the system till that upper high gets further east. Any motion probably is being helped out by convective bursts.

[CrazyC83]

I think that Alex is going almost nowhere for the next little while now. Might it just drift back into southern Mexico?

[Texas Snowman]

Great points on things being quickly able to change. If it crawls and grabs the trough really late though, it would be exposed to a wall of shear which would likely tear it to shreds. I can't see it able to make landfall east of Galveston without being impacted severely by the shear. Still, a landfall between Galveston and Corpus Christi is certainly a plausible scenario. I'm thinking the stall out then tear apart scenario is a possible one too though...

Could be. Some of the models were knocking this way down at one point weren't they? I think one even had it going into S. Texas as a depression.

Personally - and this isn't official of course - my own thought is a high end Cat 2 or a low end Cat 3 will be hitting somewhere near or south of the Rio Grande River. I remain impressed with a number of things about Alex and I think the vis sat shot is showing that he is getting his act together this evening.

But as KWT alluded to, he's got to get moving off that shelf water at some point before any significant intensification will/can occur.

[KWT]

That'd be a nice idea Crazy but don't think tis going to happen. Next to no motion right now but I do think there is a very slight N/NNE drift occuring. Recon passes will show us a better clue of what possibly may be occuring though with a system moving so slowly I wouldn't count on it!

Still these systems can really throw the models, I remember Hanna from 2008 which drifted southwards against all model forecast pretty much, who know whether something quirky may not happen this time eh?

[SunnyThoughts]

Nice blow up at the center for sure.

[ROCK]

you guys saw the steering flow....the door is open...now what pill does Alex take the red one or the blue one?

[lrak]

Next to no motion right now but I do think there is a very slight N/NNE drift occuring. Recon passes will show us a better clue of what possibly may be occuring though with a system moving so slowly I wouldn't count on it!

Still these systems can really throw the models, I remember Hanna from 2008 which drifted southwards against all model forecast pretty much, who know whether something quirky may not happen this time eh?

The visible is showing a slight drift in a northerly direction...IMO. This should really do a number on the models and their groupies...

[hurricaneCW]

Looks like Alex is organizing slowly right now. For such a large system, it's going to take a while for it to get going and that's going to be bad when it landfalls. It doesn't matter if its Mexico or Texas, the impacts will be widespread and over a large area. Even over the oil spill area, the clouds and storms, plus higher waves will disrupt cleanup and oil removal. It's only the first system and it's already becoming a forecasting nightmare. It's going to be a long season indeed.

[Buck]

Alex is making a fist and about to punch the sky!

[KWT]

I can't see this drifting lasting much longer given the upper high is trying to build in, that being said the ECM really doesn't move this much in the next 24hrs, perhaps overall a slight WNW motion...

Yeah I do think there is a slow northerly drift, maybe a hint of easterly motion in that northerly drift. That upper ridge should build in, the only thing that could mess the forecast up is if a sneaky ULL decides to form on the SE side of that upper high...

[HouTXmetro]

I guess my eyes are playing tricks on me. I swear on the vis Alex appears to have made a considerable jog to the North or even NNE. just saying.....and no I'm not making any landfall implications...just an observation.

[Wx_Warrior]

Too much is being put into every "drift" or "wobble".

[JSDS]

I think we are all hoping that that "drift" or "wobble" will be the beginning of actual movement...

[rockyman]

On this loop, you can watch Alex as it has rounded the southwest extent of the subtropical ridge...currently Alex is trying to make a quick run to the north. Meanwhile, the next ridge is building over the Rockies and quickly moving east, filling in the current troughiness over the mid-South. Because the base of the trough is so far north (more than 10 degrees of latitude away), the northward pull is fairly weak, so I don't expect Alex to make too much poleward progress. The trough's base looks to be over the midwest (Iowa, Illinois, Indiana area), so it's just about to pass by the longitude of Alex, leaving Alex behind:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 3java.html

[KWT]

Too much is being put into every "drift" or "wobble".

I don't think anything is being put into the wobbles and drifts, its just interesting to witness, sometimes these drifts and wobbles do actually become real longer term motions, hence why I think we are all watching closely. Remember much depends on how stronger the upper ridge builds in, how long it takes and how long it holds before an upper trough attempts to bring in another weakness. The upper ridge should have enough in it to shunt it inland south of the border IMO but you just never quite know of course!

[HouTXmetro]

I can't see this drifting lasting much longer given the upper high is trying to build in, that being said the ECM really doesn't move this much in the next 24hrs, perhaps overall a slight WNW motion...

Yeah I do think there is a slow northerly drift, maybe a hint of easterly motion in that northerly drift. That upper ridge should build in, the only thing that could mess the forecast up is if a sneaky ULL decides to form on the SE side of that upper high...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

There is your ULL near the Bahamas....I'm not sure it it's gonna undercut the high but it sure is charging West.

[tolakram]

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

Apparent NE movement. Must be an illusion but ....