TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Not gonna lie, i dont see any wobbles lol. That storm looks pinned. Either way. I dont want this to happen, but for this storm to make a landfall around Corpus Christi or Victoria, what has to happen and is that a VERY plausible scenario? Sorry ive been reading the forum all day and looking at the maps but can see the major players. Ive seen a spin in La, a what seems to be a slight trough in NE Texas, and the high pressure racing in from the Rockies. Which is the major player?
The ridge situated over the Rockies and poised to move into the Great Plains over the next day or so is the primary player for Alex's eventual landfall. The Atlantic ridge and its interaction with the ongoing trough over the SE US is a secondary player. Look for the trough to exit the US East Coast over the next 24 hours, which will allow a Wward building of the Atlantic ridge. One sign to watch for in terms of the Atlantic ridge strengthening is a weakening (or dissipation) of the upper low moving in vicinity of the Bahamas. The RUC suggests this feature will merge with the troughing and diminish in the near future. If the Upper Low remains present it could mean that the trough wasn't as deep as forecast - hence the high pressure is stronger - or that the Atlantic ridge is not as potent as model guidance suggests.
For storm movement, a weaker Atlantic ridge could translate into a more northerly track for Alex, which could allow landfall farther up the Wrn Gulf Coast. A faster moving storm could also allow this scenario to unfold. So, for Central Texas, the way Alex would be more threatening would be if the storm 1) were faster moving, and 2) the ridge action was weaker.
- Jay
South Florida
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