ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[ozonepete]

I think the EWRC has neared completion due to the more visible eye starting to show up on satellite imagery. I have to say I'm still shocked this is a Cat 4 storm, when you think of a Cat 4, the current visual of Earl is not what normally comes to mind. Yesterday's Earl reminded me of a Cat 4, today's Earl looks no stronger than a high end Cat 2, low end 3, but looks can be deceiving I suppose. Tonight's recon mission should give us a good insight on what Earl is up to.

It certainly looks better than a Cat 2 to me.

With that new, small eye and very symmetrical, circular form, I could almost guarantee you this will still be a cat 4 at 11PM.

[Mello1]

Hey Luis... Everything okay down there? Any damages incurred?

I am back after 25 hours without power and internet. I am safe and dry as in my area in San Juan ,nothing bad occured except for the lack of power that affected more than 500,000 people in the island. Last night heavy showers with winds that I clocked at 36 mph with my anemometer moved thru but no damage occured in my area.In other areas in PR, many trees went down and some electric poles also went down but no flooding event occured as well no fatalitles. In other words PR dodged a big bullet.

Good to know you are safe and back online.

[Stephanie]

I think the EWRC has neared completion due to the more visible eye starting to show up on satellite imagery. I have to say I'm still shocked this is a Cat 4 storm, when you think of a Cat 4, the current visual of Earl is not what normally comes to mind. Yesterday's Earl reminded me of a Cat 4, today's Earl looks no stronger than a high end Cat 2, low end 3, but looks can be deceiving I suppose. Tonight's recon mission should give us a good insight on what Earl is up to.

It certainly looks better than a Cat 2 to me.

With that new, small eye and very symmetrical, circular form, I could almost guarantee you this will still be a cat 4 at 11PM.

Yeah, I was, in essense, doubting that it was weaker than a Cat 4 to begin with.

[Weather Watcher]

This buoy will be interesting to watch tonight.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41046

I would not want to be near that buoy. Wave height 28.2 ft yipes

[Julanne]

I want so badly to learn what you guys know but for right now, I need to know what the honest opinions are of a Southeastern New England Hit? Our Meterologists up here are so shell-shocked from so many missed blizzard predictions that I fear they are almost holding back. That being said, a Cat 3 or 4 storm in SE NE could be devastating at best. I know that the cooler waters up here would decrease it's intensity but I would love to hear the pro's opinions on us getting lambasted. (I am ready if it comes and if it goes away...perfect!)

[SouthFloridawx]

Think recon will find a more intense system tonight?

[Zarniwoop]

I like this site so much as a lurker that I finally had to join in because I have questions.

First let me say how impressive this community is. Intelligent and rarely cantankerous. Very refreshing. Now to my questions.

There's a high pressure zone to earl's west that apparently is moving SW. To a complete and utter novice, it appears that it would either:

a) have a risk of getting dragged south some or at least stalled a moment in that little dip that the zone has as it goes by.
b) be pushed north and east almost immediately.

The one thing a complete novice just can't work out (or at least I can't) is how to read those complex pressure and windflow maps. I have 2 engineereing degrees, so I usually have some of the idea and the terms other than the acronyms are no problem mostly. But, how do you look at those pictures and see which way a front is moving and how quickly?

[Gladstone]

I like this site so much as a lurker that I finally had to join in because I have questions.

First let me say how impressive this community is. Intelligent and rarely cantankerous. Very refreshing. Now to my questions.

There's a high pressure zone to earl's west that apparently is moving SW. To a complete and utter novice, it appears that it would either:

a) have a risk of getting dragged south some or at least stalled a moment in that little dip that the zone has as it goes by.
b) be pushed north and east almost immediately.

The one thing a complete novice just can't work out (or at least I can't) is how to read those complex pressure and windflow maps. I have 2 engineereing degrees, so I usually have some of the idea and the terms other than the acronyms are no problem mostly. But, how do you look at those pictures and see which way a front is moving and how quickly?

A good way to visualize what the charts show is to look at this:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

Gladstone in NC

[ncweatherwizard]

I like this site so much as a lurker that I finally had to join in because I have questions.

First let me say how impressive this community is. Intelligent and rarely cantankerous. Very refreshing. Now to my questions.

There's a high pressure zone to earl's west that apparently is moving SW. To a complete and utter novice, it appears that it would either:

a) have a risk of getting dragged south some or at least stalled a moment in that little dip that the zone has as it goes by.
b) be pushed north and east almost immediately.

The one thing a complete novice just can't work out (or at least I can't) is how to read those complex pressure and windflow maps. I have 2 engineereing degrees, so I usually have some of the idea and the terms other than the acronyms are no problem mostly. But, how do you look at those pictures and see which way a front is moving and how quickly?

Welcome aboard!

There's a big ridge (high pressure) over the eastern US--I think that's to what you're referring. Models have been consistent in weakening the ridge overnight and through tomorrow. I'm not sure what "it" is, but if that ridge remained intact, then Earl would probably move a little farther westward.

From the sound of what you said, it seems like you're looking at a surface map. You might want to take a look at some upper air maps as well since they are more relevant to such a deep storm as Earl. I think they are easier to read and less noisy anyway.

Scott

[jacindc]

I'm interested in tonight's images showing a system a bit more horizontally shaped than the north-south slightly elongated cloud structure we saw yesterday. Perhaps presaging a bit of a switch back to a more WNW movement?

[SunnyThoughts]

[Gladstone]

And of course when you go here: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ you want to go to the "Upper Air Graphics" and view the 500mb charts.

500mb is the 18,000' level where the primary steering currents are. Compare the models to the water vapor loops and you'll see the dynamics of the atmosphere fairly clearly.

Gladstone in NC

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Checkin in folks. My forecast from several days ago on this system continues to look good, maybe even a nudge right of my anticipated track which will keep this offshore mainland United States and hurricane force winds will stay offshore as well (never thought this would make landfall in the U.S nor get close enough to cause hurricane force winds over the mainland or outer banks). Don't see any type of catastrophic event out of this. A close call for sure, but even when I look at the models tonight I see they have shifted a bit more away from the outer banks of North Carolina with HWRF and GFDL offshore as well. So trends look good and so does the forecast.

[CronkPSU]

like i said earlier tonight after someone was in awe of hugo's sat profile, give this thing another 24 hours and it may look very close, hope I am wrong, i lived in myrtle beach 8 years after the storm and hugo's trail was still very evident

[SouthFloridawx]

Anyone?

I'm kind of confused about something. Maybe you guys can help me out. I am looking at the Water Vapor Loop of the CONUS, and it has been my understanding that we are watching a trough that is expected to dig into the eastern United States. Correct?

Someone posted this image.



Now, if you look at the steering flow...



There is a large gap between the ridges of the ATL and the one over the CONUS. So it is moving around the periphery of the Subtropical Ridge, and as it does that... the Trough is going to break down the ridge over the Eastern United States, allowing the Westerlies to scoop it up in the process.

Because, if I were to look at that map without other knowledge... I would assume a more western component. But, the steering flow on the SE side of the Ridge in the Eastern US is very weak... So it is shooting the current GAP? (if you will)

Am I close on this one?

[ozonepete]

I'm interested in tonight's images showing a system a bit more horizontally shaped than the north-south slightly elongated cloud structure we saw yesterday. Perhaps presaging a bit of a switch back to a more WNW movement?

Most of us "wobble-watchers" (we watch the small wobbles in the eye as it moves along) also love to watch the orientation of the tropical cyclone "envelope." That's what you're looking at - the overall cloud expanse around the hurricane. It is often true that when you see the envelope stretch in a (for example) west-northwest fashion that the storm is going to move that way. But it's not always true, since, for example, the storm may be about to move into a highly southwest to northwest steerinng environment. But it often does give you advance clues as to where the storm may be moving. The BIG thing to remember is that, just like wobbles in the movement of the eye, the change in the way the envelope "leans" may be only temporary. You need to see that change in the orientation of the envelope last for at least a few hours, and be supported by other analytical evidence.

[ozonepete]

I like this site so much as a lurker that I finally had to join in because I have questions.

First let me say how impressive this community is. Intelligent and rarely cantankerous. Very refreshing. Now to my questions.

There's a high pressure zone to earl's west that apparently is moving SW. To a complete and utter novice, it appears that it would either:

a) have a risk of getting dragged south some or at least stalled a moment in that little dip that the zone has as it goes by.
b) be pushed north and east almost immediately.

The one thing a complete novice just can't work out (or at least I can't) is how to read those complex pressure and windflow maps. I have 2 engineereing degrees, so I usually have some of the idea and the terms other than the acronyms are no problem mostly. But, how do you look at those pictures and see which way a front is moving and how quickly?

Always love to see engineers because they love math and physics. PM me and I'll give you a couple of good books to read - it would take a lot of time to explain even the basics of fluid mechanics. But someone like you could pick this stuff up in no time.

[TropicalWXMA]

544
WTNT32 KNHC 010243
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

...POWERFUL HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 69.9W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 910 MI...1460 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.9 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
THE HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING WELL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. NOAA BUOY
41046...LOCATED ABOUT 85 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF
EARL...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 57 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 67
MPH AND A PRESSURE OF 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.

[Air Force Met]

The outflow is really starting to get re-established on the western side as the upper trof drops rapidly to the SW.

We should be in for a period of intensification over the next 24 hours.

[weatherSnoop]

I like this site so much as a lurker that I finally had to join in because I have questions.

First let me say how impressive this community is. Intelligent and rarely cantankerous. Very refreshing. Now to my questions.

There's a high pressure zone to earl's west that apparently is moving SW. To a complete and utter novice, it appears that it would either:

a) have a risk of getting dragged south some or at least stalled a moment in that little dip that the zone has as it goes by.
b) be pushed north and east almost immediately.

The one thing a complete novice just can't work out (or at least I can't) is how to read those complex pressure and windflow maps. I have 2 engineereing degrees, so I usually have some of the idea and the terms other than the acronyms are no problem mostly. But, how do you look at those pictures and see which way a front is moving and how quickly?

I cannot answer your question, though I want to thank you for your approach. I have read many posts today "calling out" the professionals and those with knowledge to provide answers. This type of inquiry draws the response that enables all of us to learn.