ARABIAN SEA - DEEP DEPRESSION (03A)

[Derek Ortt]

I was estimating this to be 100KT at landfall. Looked like a 5.5/5.5

probably weakened to 80KT during the EWRC

peak intensity, probably ~105KT, maybe 110

[shah8]

Yeah, something like Saomai, like I have remarked before. The landfall infrared looked exactly like Saomai's.

[HURAKAN]

WTIO31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (PHET) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (PHET) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 21.5N 59.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 59.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 22.6N 59.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 23.1N 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.3N 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 23.9N 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 26.1N 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 29.5N 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 59.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 03A
HAS MADE LANDFALL INTO OMAN, AND HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). TRACK
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS, INCREASING AS TC
03A MOVES FURTHER INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THIS IS A
SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION FROM MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
NGPS, GFS, GFDN, AND EGRR ALL INDICATE THAT TC 03A WILL TURN WEST-
WARD, AND LOITER OVER OMAN FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS IS NOT
LIKELY AS CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS STILL MOVING
QUICKLY TO THE NORTH AROUND THE STR. ECMF AND WBAR REMAIN THE ONLY
TWO MODELS THAT CURRENTLY SHOW A REASONABLE SOLUTION BASED ON THE
TRACK OF PHET, AND THIS FORECAST FAVORS THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. THE
BRIEF TRACK OVER OMAN WILL ONLY HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT TO INTENSITY,
AS MOIST, WARM, OCEAN, WATER WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL THE SYSTEM,
HOWEVER, THE FAVORABLE INFLOW WILL BE TEMPERED BY INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO WILL KEEP TC 03A ON A
SLOW WEAKENING TREND. LANDFALL IN PAKISTAN BY TAU 60 WILL CAUSE A
RAPID WEAKENING WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.//
NNNN

[shah8]

What's really impressive is that the storm still has excellent structure and it's almost to Sur on the north coast. It's coming out there with a chance to impose order again before the vertical shear gets it. Pakistan *still* has to fear from this storm even after the thorough thwacking that Oman has recieved!

[ozonepete]

I was estimating this to be 100KT at landfall. Looked like a 5.5/5.5

probably weakened to 80KT during the EWRC

peak intensity, probably ~105KT, maybe 110

Hi Derek,
It clearly was entering an EWRC last night/this morning around 12Z, but it started the EWRC way before landfall and never completed it at all. In fact, from 12Z it was all downhill. I would say landfall winds were at most 70-90 knots (and then only on the stongest right front quadrant) and that's being generous. Don't trust me - look at the MIMIC loop from CIMSS. It shows this quite clearly. This had no closed circulation at all at full landfall on the coast north of Masira. It appears to have made landfall around 21Z, when CIMSS had it as a 4.1 on the ADT.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2010_03A/webManager/basicGifDisplay.html

Although the southern edge of the eye came EVER so close to Masira island, it didn't go over Masira. But it DID make a remarkable comeback as it approached Masira, and you forecast that perfectly. Bravo.

[Chacor]

The 1800z ICAO Aviation Advisory issued by the IMD still holds at 65 knots.

FKIN20 VIDP 032238
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20100603/1800Z
TCAC: NEW DELHI
TC: PHET
NR: 11
PSN: N2030 E05930
MOV: N 7 KT
C: 978 HPA
MAX WIND: 65KT
FCST PSN+6HR: 04/0000Z N2100 E05930
FCST MAX WIND+6HR: 65 KT
FCST PSN+12HR: 04/0600Z N2130 E05930
FCST MAX WIND+12HR: 60 KT
FCST PSN+18HR: 04/1200Z N2230 E06000
FCST MAX WIND+18HR: 60 KT
FCST PSN+24HR: 04/1800Z N2300 E06100
FCST MAX WIND+24HR: 60 KT

NEXT MSG: 20100604/0000Z

[Derek Ortt]

Thanks for the MIMIC loop

I had a look and the strongest part of the SW eyewall appears to have remained just offshore. The island still received sustained 65KT winds. Based upon similar wind readings from previous hurricanes (Emily 1993 from HAT), 100KT may have occurred in the SE eyewall, that never reached land until a few hours later

[ozonepete]

We are up for a challenging season here in our own backyard.

[shah8]

I really have to wonder (and pity the Indian people), how they could ever think they were doing a good job. Maybe they're trying to train up and do everything themselves and not use other products or take stuff from other weather reporting sites.

[ozonepete]

Don't be too hard on them. They have limited resources (money!) from their government, just like we do here at times. I think they are headed in the right direction. They have a lot less experience with trying to understand and forecast these storms than we do. But it IS a pity that they aren't given enough server capacity to be able to handle a lot of internet traffic when they need it the most. That has to change.

[Sanibel]

It would be interesting to know what percentage of their annual rain comes from cyclones?

[HURAKAN]

Visible

[Chacor]

It would be interesting to know what percentage of their annual rain comes from cyclones?

IIRC, Gonu gave them a multiple hundred times their annual rainfall.

[HURAKAN]

It would be interesting to know what percentage of their annual rain comes from cyclones?

IIRC, Gonu gave them a multiple hundred times their annual rainfall.

"Annual rainfall in Muscat averages 100 mm (3.9 in), falling mostly in January"

Link - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oman#Climate

[shunshu]

Don't be too hard on them. They have limited resources (money!) from their government, just like we do here at times. I think they are headed in the right direction. They have a lot less experience with trying to understand and forecast these storms than we do. But it IS a pity that they aren't given enough server capacity to be able to handle a lot of internet traffic when they need it the most. That has to change.

Being Indian I can tell you that IMD tries it's best and they fail because of a combination of reasons. You are right about the money, they have outdated technology and no money for replacing it. But there is also corruption, incompetence and low wages - that's why we don't have good forecasters. Moreover weather patterns in this region, I believe, are less predictable than in the Pacific/Atlantic.

Sanibel, cyclones are not good for Indian monsoons.... Phet and Laila have effectively stalled this year's monsoon even though IMD refuses to admit it. Last year the same happened with AILA and India had the worst drought in 37 years, even though IMD predicted normal rainfall. This is bad because Agriculture accounts for 15.7 % of the GDP. This year too IMD is predicting normal rainfall... IMD is notorious for lackluster monsoon forecasts and they are soon changing their monsoon prediciton models. You have to realize that no one here cares about daily weather, we are just worried about a normal monsoon and the heat!

[vjyanand]

I really have to wonder (and pity the Indian people), how they could ever think they were doing a good job. Maybe they're trying to train up and do everything themselves and not use other products or take stuff from other weather reporting sites.

From Shah8

If your comments originate from a scientific perception then what you are saying can be accepted. IMD nees to improve big time else their weather forecasting abilities would be on par with some of their neighboring countries who are very primitive in this regard. Not sure whether you are condemning IMD because they are not accurate or only because it is an Indian government agency. I guess we are here to improve our knowledge about weather systems and not to belittle organizations.

I sincerely hope Indian Government would invest lot more on IMD.

[ozonepete]

Hi Shunshu,
In light of your very smart observations, I thought you might like this research paper I wrote about GONU back in 2007:

http://www.philip-lutzak.com/weather/GONU%20&%20THE%202007%20ONSET%20VORTEX/PROJECT%20-%20GONU%20AND%20THE%202007%20ONSET%20VORTEX.htm

It proves your point.

[HURAKAN]

Leaving the coast

[ozonepete]

If it's leaving land with that much symmetry still intact, Pakistan could be in trouble...

[HURAKAN]

Monster Cyclone Phet Slamming Northeastern Oman



NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and Aqua satellites are keeping a close eye on Cyclone Phet, a monster cyclone in the Arabian Sea, now affecting coastal Oman. Cyclone Phet's winds and heavy rains reached Oman's east coast earlier, June 3.

Authorities in Oman have raised the threat level to orange, and evacuations have already taken place.

Yesterday, when Phet was powering up from a Category three to a Category four cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson scale, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission or TRMM satellite traveled almost directly above Phet in the Arabian Sea.

On June 2 at 0140 UTC (June 1 at 9:40 p.m. EDT) TRMM data showed that numerous powerful thunderstorms were imbedded in Phet's well defined eye wall. They were producing very heavy rainfall of over 50 mm/hr (~2 inches). That rainfall is affecting the coast of Oman.

At 0900 UTC (5 a.m. EDT), June 3, Cyclone Phet (a Category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale) was located about 275 nautical miles south of Muscat, Oman, near 19.2 North and 59.3 East. Phet's maximum sustained winds were near 115 knots (132 mph) with gusts to 140 knots (161 mph). Phet has moved on a north-northwestward track at 4 knots (5 mph).

Phet is creating extremely dangerous seas along the coast of Oman, with waves as high as 30 feet, so all fishing and other boats have been warned not to venture to sea.

Forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center using animated multispectral imagery noted this morning that the imagery indicates the system has regained a 20-nautical mile wide ragged eye that appeared to wobble as the cyclone underwent a possible eye-wall replacement.

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on NASA's Aqua satellite captured an infrared image of Cyclone Phet on June 3 at 08:59 UTC (4:59 a.m. EDT) in which the western half of the storm was already on top of coastal Oman. It showed a large area of strong thunderstorms with high, cold cloud tops as cold as -63 Fahrenheit.

Phet is in an area of low vertical wind shear. Vertical wind shear means winds blowing at different directions at different levels in the atmosphere that can tear a storm apart. When vertical wind shear is strong, it weakens tropical cyclones. When wind shear is weak, it allows tropical cyclones to maintain or increase intensity.

Water vapor imagery from satellites do indicate that as Phet continues moving through the Arabian Sea, it will encounter dry air, which will help weaken the cyclone. The friction of the storm raking over the Oman coast will also contribute to weakening the cyclone.

After skirting the Oman coast, Phet is expected to swing eastward and make landfall just north of Karachi, Pakistan.