ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - RECON DISCUSSION

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margiek
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE ALEX - RECON DISCUSSION

#321 Postby margiek » Wed Jun 30, 2010 9:50 am

067
URNT12 KNHC 301432
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012010
A. 30/14:05:40Z
B. 23 deg 49 min N
095 deg 26 min W
C. 850 mb 1063 m
D. 54 kt
E. 300 deg 10 nm
F. 052 deg 62 kt
G. 304 deg 15 nm
H. 961 mb
I. 20 C / 1522 m
J. 24 C / 1523 m
K. 20 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA

N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 1101A ALEX OB 20
MAX FL WIND 89 KT NE QUAD 14:19:10Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 89 KT NE QUAD 14:19:10Z
MAX OUTBOUND AND FL WIND 89 KT NE QUAD 14:19:10Z
;

That's always nice; just as the eye shows up well on VIS it disappears on recon. :P

Developing secondary eyewall apparent on microwave passes now.

Image
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#322 Postby KWT » Wed Jun 30, 2010 10:20 am

Looks like from now on in we are going to have near constant recon, last pass found winds to justify upping it to 75kts.
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE ALEX - RECON DISCUSSION

#323 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 30, 2010 11:34 am

First pass by this new mission will be from NE to SW.
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#324 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Jun 30, 2010 11:35 am

They are already measuring winds of 60 knots flight level...I'm thinking they might find a few spots in the upper 90s to low 100s on this pass.
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE ALEX - RECON DISCUSSION

#325 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 30, 2010 11:52 am

84 kt FL the highest in this set.Next one will be very interesting.
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#326 Postby KWT » Wed Jun 30, 2010 11:54 am

Unless the eyewall structure is still messed up that should mean something higher then we saw in the eyewall last time in the NE quadrant.
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE ALEX - RECON DISCUSSION

#327 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:03 pm

96 kt Flight Level Wind
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#328 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:04 pm

Looks like it will go up to 80 knots in the next advisory
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#329 Postby KWT » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:05 pm

How far out is that 66kts at SFMR from the center in miles roughly?
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#330 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:06 pm

96 knot flight level wind...and they arent even in the eyewall yet? ohhh boy (by eyewall, that 96 was recorded in a secondary wind maxima, the pressure was still in the low 990s!)
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#331 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:15 pm

I'm also guessing the pressure is down to 955.
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#332 Postby SunnyThoughts » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:16 pm

Brunota, that wouldn't surprise me at all.
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#333 Postby KWT » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:22 pm

Looks like recon going from E-W, not sure they meant that or whether they've had to shift course to catch the eye being further north then forecasted?

Next set should see the eyewall present...
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#334 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:23 pm

Winds are up, pressure is also rising some. Seems like the storm is starting to tighten up.
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#335 Postby KWT » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:24 pm

I don't think so...I think the outer eyewall is taking over and then inner one is decaying now with the pressure rising in response...

I suppose its rather similar to a EWRC?!
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#336 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:25 pm

Wow...this hurricane just went from insane to bizarre!
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE ALEX - RECON DISCUSSION

#337 Postby Normandy » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:27 pm

What a bizzare storm. The strongest winds seem to be in the outer wind maxima now, which is not necesarilly the best news for BRO either.
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#338 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:43 pm

Alex is a 95 mph hurricane according to that dropsonde...it recorded winds of 93 mph right before splash down...granted it could be a spot wind, and not representative.
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#339 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Jun 30, 2010 12:50 pm

962mb and 80 kt seems most likely given the data.
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#340 Postby KWT » Wed Jun 30, 2010 1:07 pm

Dropsonde got 88kts, so this could well even be a category-2 right now according to that, esp given recon didn't catch the NE quadrant earlier...
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