WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONSON

[KWT]

Big convective blow up thats for sure, looks like the shear is still present on it though with a classic southerly sheared presentation...but that deep convection could well provde flooding issues down the line.

[HURAKAN]

Looks like a comet!!

[cycloneye]

Severe Tropical Storm again by JMA.

STS 1002 (Conson)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 15 July 2010
<Analyses at 15/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N16°10'(16.2°)
E115°00'(115.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 220km(120NM)

[Macrocane]

LOL at the comet comparison. It seems that it is recovering from the wounds that the Philippines mountains did to it.

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (CONSON) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 16.3N 115.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 115.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.1N 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.2N 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 19.4N 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 20.7N 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 22.7N 106.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 114.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (CONSON) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.//
NNNN

[oaba09]

Hi guys, power is still out in our house in valenzuela, metro manila so I decided to go to our other house in nueva ecija where there's power......PAGASA got scolded by the president earlier because of it's wrong forecast...Thanks to this site, I was able to know in advance that metro manila will get a direct hit..................Metro Manila was in total blackout last night(totally no power)...right now, about 70% still has no electricity...there have also been reports of destroyed homes and some casualties....

What was the PAGASA forecast?

PAGASA said that the system will affect the central and northern luzon..they also said that metro manila won't be hit directly..pagasa only raised signal #1 in metro manila when it should have been signal #3....JTWC on the other hand made the earliest prediction that metro manila will get hit....people in metro manila were not able to prepare because most of them thought that we won't feel the full force of the typhoon...

[Chacor]

Deadly typhoon cuts power across northern Philippines

The first typhoon of the season has hit the Philippines with unexpected force, killing at least 22 people and left millions without power.

Typhoon Conson hit north-east Quezon province and the central island of Luzon, and surged through the capital and six other provinces.

President Benigno Aquino criticised weather forecasters who failed to predict the storm would hit Manila.

The Asian typhoon season often hits the Philippines with greatest force.

Twelve people were reported injured and 57 are thought to be missing after the storm which had winds of 120km/h (75mph).

The dead included a mother and daughter hit by a falling tree, and two children killed when a tree crashed through their house.

Another woman was reportedly electrocuted by a power line.

Several fishermen are missing off the Bicol region south-east of Manila, the military reported, plus another three people whose homes were swept away by flooding.

Damaged power lines left more than half of the main northern island without electricity, including much of the capital and its overhead railway network.

It is expected to take two or three days before full power can be restored.

President Benigno Aquino criticised meteorologists for failing to suggest Manila would be so hard-hit.

"This is not acceptable," he told officials at an emergency meeting of rescue agencies.

It is expected to hit the Chinese mainland west of Macau later in the week.

[dhoeze]

Dead: 23
Missing: 59
Damage Houses: 3,274 (370 Totally,2904 Partially)
Damage on Agriculture:941 Hectares

[Chacor]

JMA have this back up to 55 kt.

[ManilaTC]

Hi guys, power is still out in our house in valenzuela, metro manila so I decided to go to our other house in nueva ecija where there's power......PAGASA got scolded by the president earlier because of it's wrong forecast...Thanks to this site, I was able to know in advance that metro manila will get a direct hit..................Metro Manila was in total blackout last night(totally no power)...right now, about 70% still has no electricity...there have also been reports of destroyed homes and some casualties....

What was the PAGASA forecast?

PAGASA said that the system will affect the central and northern luzon..they also said that metro manila won't be hit directly..pagasa only raised signal #1 in metro manila when it should have been signal #3....JTWC on the other hand made the earliest prediction that metro manila will get hit....people in metro manila were not able to prepare because most of them thought that we won't feel the full force of the typhoon...

power was restored at 12:30 am today here in our place

a lot of changes have to happen at PAGASA, three hour warnings when a storm is about 24 hours from landfall, such as it should be an independent body...and get those freaking dopplers online!

[ManilaTC]

Filipinos in this forum, who wants to join a "Reform the PAGASA" movement?

[ManilaTC]

Readings from Weather Underground:

Max Wind Speed 65 km/h
Max Gust Speed 111 km/h

12:00 AM 25.0 °C 25.0 °C 100% 998 hPa 6.0 kilometers WNW 64.8 km/h / 18.0 m/s 101.9 km/h / 28.3 m/s N/A Rain Light Rain
1:00 AM 25.0 °C 25.0 °C 100% 994 hPa 6.0 kilometers North 59.3 km/h / 16.5 m/s 64.8 km/h / 18.0 m/s N/A Rain Light Rain
2:00 AM 25 °C 25 °C 98% 996 hPa 6 kilometers NE 61.2 km/h / - - Rain Light Rain
2:00 AM 25.0 °C 25.0 °C 100% 996 hPa 6.0 kilometers NE 63.0 km/h / 17.5 m/s 111.1 km/h / 30.9 m/s N/A Rain Light Rain
3:00 AM 24.0 °C 24.0 °C 100% 997 hPa 6.0 kilometers ENE 46.3 km/h / 12.9 m/s - N/A Rain Light Rain

[KWT]

Still holding its current presentation with northerly shear on it but it still looks about the same strength as before with lots of deep convection present...going to be some big rains from Conson.

[Chacor]

T4.0 from JMA at 12Z.

[KWT]

I'm not sure the presentation would justify going upto 65kts, but 60kts certainly is possible given the explosive convection thats present.

[HURAKAN]

Looking really good internally

[Typhoon10]

As its within 800km of HK, they have raised the T1 flag here in HK

[Chacor]

Up to 60 kt from JMA.

[KWT]

A change over the last 6-9hrs actually has occured, we've gone from a shear presentation to a strengthening look.

The microwave imagery suggests Luzon really expanded the system, so it probably has a fairly wide windfield right now compared to a system of this strength judging from the microwave imagery.

[Macrocane]

Up to 60 kt from JMA.

If JMA has 60 kt then the JTWC has to go with at least 65 kt in the next warning if not they could be underestimating the intensity of Conson.