ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

695
ABNT20 KNHC 291200
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 440 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA...AND ON
TROPICAL STORM EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 370 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ROUGHLY MIDWAY BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

SAB Dvorak

29/1145 UTC 13.8N 36.7W T2.0/2.0 97L -- Atlantic

TD numbers.

[senorpepr]

SAB Dvorak

29/1145 UTC 13.8N 36.7W T2.0/2.0 97L -- Atlantic

TD numbers.

We'll see if they actually use that to upgrade. Considering T2.0 is 30 kt and the best track has had 30 kt since 00Z... we shall see.

[senorpepr]

AL, 97, 2010082912, , BEST, 0, 137N, 363W, 30, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[Blown Away]

Cat 5 into Port St. Lucie/Ft Pierce, wow thank goodness it's fantasy at this point. That area is the northern extent for EC Florida landfalls, IMO. Very rare to get a EC Florida landfall north of that location so if this model idea verifies I would expect the trend to go offshore or farther south.

BA is that the latest Euro run.

00UTC ECMWF 240 hours

[wzrgirl1]

http://img413.imageshack.us/img413/3369/97ls.jpg

Cat 5 into Port St. Lucie/Ft Pierce, wow thank goodness it's fantasy at this point. That area is the northern extent for EC Florida landfalls, IMO. Very rare to get a EC Florida landfall north of that location so if this model idea verifies I would expect the trend to go offshore or farther south.

BA is that the latest Euro run.

Which model run is that?

[Blown Away]

Actually it hits the east coast of Florida at 216 hours on that run. Looks like a Frances or jeanne redux

What's interesting is that run carries 97L into the GOM which reinforces the building ridge idea. Let's just hope this won't happen.

[HURAKAN]

AL, 97, 2010082912, , BEST, 0, 137N, 363W, 30, 1006, LO

no upgrade at 11 am, I guess

[Blown Away]

AL, 97, 2010082912, , BEST, 0, 137N, 363W, 30, 1006, LO

no upgrade at 11 am, I guess

Did 97L move a little WSW or did the center relocate, seems to have lost latitude overnight.

[dexterlabio]

I'm actually keeping an eye on Earl and on this soon-to-be Fiona, even though I ain't an Atlantic coast resident. I wonder why this is not considered to be a TD yet.

[HURAKAN]

AL, 97, 2010082912, , BEST, 0, 137N, 363W, 30, 1006, LO

no upgrade at 11 am, I guess

Did 97L move a little WSW or did the center relocate, seems to have lost latitude overnight.

AL, 97, 2010082818, , BEST, 0, 137N, 308W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 225, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 97, 2010082900, , BEST, 0, 137N, 327W, 30, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 97, 2010082906, , BEST, 0, 137N, 344W, 30, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 97, 2010082912, , BEST, 0, 137N, 363W, 30, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[LAwxrgal]

^ Small system that is, so far.

[Blown Away]

Cat 5 into Port St. Lucie/Ft Pierce, wow thank goodness it's fantasy at this point. That area is the northern extent for EC Florida landfalls, IMO. Very rare to get a EC Florida landfall north of that location so if this model idea verifies I would expect the trend to go offshore or farther south.

What were the last storms to landnfall around that area? Were Jeanne and Frances around there or further south? I know Dora was to the north around St. Augustine.[/quote]
The landfall is within 15 miles of Frances/Jeanne's landfall point.

[LowndesCoFire]

Cat 5 into Port St. Lucie/Ft Pierce, wow thank goodness it's fantasy at this point. That area is the northern extent for EC Florida landfalls, IMO. Very rare to get a EC Florida landfall north of that location so if this model idea verifies I would expect the trend to go offshore or farther south.

What were the last storms to landnfall around that area? Were Jeanne and Frances around there or further south? I know Dora was to the north around St. Augustine.

The landfall is within 15 miles of Frances/Jeanne's landfall point.[/quote]

I see now...almost same location on the EC.
** Updated to include Erin '95**

[tronbunny]

Cat 5 into Port St. Lucie/Ft Pierce, wow thank goodness it's fantasy at this point. That area is the northern extent for EC Florida landfalls, IMO. Very rare to get a EC Florida landfall north of that location so if this model idea verifies I would expect the trend to go offshore or farther south.

What were the last storms to landnfall around that area? Were Jeanne and Frances around there or further south? I know Dora was to the north around St. Augustine.

The landfall is within 15 miles of Frances/Jeanne's landfall point.

And I'm not forgetting a fairly 'softhearted' Erin in 1995.
(though there was an ULL feature over FL in play, there, and Erin did not have nearly as good a running start as this feature does)

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Question, will this thing EVER be upgraded to a TD. It has to hold the record for the longest time spent in the red zone for development yet lol.

[LowndesCoFire]

Earlier graphic updated to show Frances, Jeanne, and Erin. Almost near same location.

100th

[TheBurn]