ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[Gustywind]

[ronjon]

Looks like the circulation center is near 15.5N-64.5W according to early morning VIS SAT.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[jlauderdal]

My guess is it remains 50% on the 8 o'clock TWO

i say 60 unless avila is on duty then 50

LOL Well Said..I could see even 70%..look at that blob and the rotation was already evident.. All Mets are taking a serious look this morning and RECON looks like they will fly at this point..

no avila and 60 it was, you know we should really start a "predict the percentage" contest thread, fire it up 90 minutes before the update and shut it down 20 minutes early in case NHC is early with the data. This whole percentage deal is really becoming a cottage industry on this board, and we should chart the percentages from nhc, think about gaston it would look like the stock market over the past 5 years, up and then crashola and then the big sighs from the people I disagree with as the percentage go es down to the dreaded "near 0", julia gets a center and then watch out because on the projected track through the NW carribean there is mucho amts of energy to be tapped

[cycloneye]

no avila and 60 it was, you know we should really start a "predict the percentage" contest thread, fire it up 90 minutes before the update and shut it down 20 minutes early in case NHC is early with the data. This whole percentage deal is really becoming a cottage industry on this board, and we should chart the percentages from nhc, think about gaston it would look like the stock market over the past 5 years, up and then crashola and then the big sighs from the people I disagree with as the percentage go es down to the dreaded "near 0", juliagets a center and then watch out because on the projected track through the NW carribean there is mucho amts of energy to be tapped

There is now competition about the names.

[cycloneye]

Long range radar from San Juan shows the northern part of system.

[caneman]

No one has mentioned it so I will. It's become apparant that it has moved Northerly and according the update it is in fact moving NW'erly which would give more credence to the Northern models (HWRF) and a potential greater risk to FLorida and/or GOM states.

[caneman]

I think some credit would be due the the much maligned NAM, Canadian and GFDL as well....

[expat2carib]

no avila and 60 it was, you know we should really start a "predict the percentage" contest thread, fire it up 90 minutes before the update and shut it down 20 minutes early in case NHC is early with the data. This whole percentage deal is really becoming a cottage industry on this board, and we should chart the percentages from nhc, think about gaston it would look like the stock market over the past 5 years, up and then crashola and then the big sighs from the people I disagree with as the percentage go es down to the dreaded "near 0", julia gets a center and then watch out because on the projected track through the NW carribean there is mucho amts of energy to be tapped

LOL. And then we should have small virtual bags of Sahara dust to bet with.

[gatorcane]

Notice the outlook indicates it is expected to move west into the central and western Caribbean sea. That means it is going to pass way south of Florida. Alex redux. Not a Florida system.

[HURAKAN]

latest

[TheBurn]

[wxman57]

Notice the outlook indicates it is expected to move west into the central and western Caribbean sea. That means it is going to pass way south of Florida. Alex redux. Not a Florida system.

Agree - ridge is building right over Florida beyond 72 hours, that should keep it on a westerly heading as it passes to your south. Models look good, taking it to the central Yucatan then MX.

Oh, and look at the 00Z 384hr GFS.

[hurricaneCW]

I have family going to Playa de Carmen a week from now, are they likely to be effected or are we still speculating the track and if a storm will even form.

[gatorcane]

Notice the outlook indicates it is expected to move west into the central and western Caribbean sea. That means it is going to pass way south of Florida. Alex redux. Not a Florida system.

Agree - ridge is building right over Florida beyond 72 hours, that should keep it on a westerly heading as it passes to your south. Models look good, taking it to the central Yucatan then MX.

Oh, and look at the 00Z 384hr GFS.

Well all I can say I am glad it is the 384 hour GFS. Ouch for South Florida is all I have to say.

[wzrgirl1]

Notice the outlook indicates it is expected to move west into the central and western Caribbean sea. That means it is going to pass way south of Florida. Alex redux. Not a Florida system.

Agree - ridge is building right over Florida beyond 72 hours, that should keep it on a westerly heading as it passes to your south. Models look good, taking it to the central Yucatan then MX.

Oh, and look at the 00Z 384hr GFS.

Well all I can say I am glad it is the 384 hour GFS. Ouch for South Florida is all I have to say.

link?

[wx247]

Notice the outlook indicates it is expected to move west into the central and western Caribbean sea. That means it is going to pass way south of Florida. Alex redux. Not a Florida system.

While I agree with your assertion, just because the NHC says it is going to be going into the Central and Western Caribbean alone isn't enough reason to keep this one from Florida. We will have to monitor trends over the next 48 to 72 hours to make sure conditions in the atmosphere are lining up as the models progged them to, especially regarding the strength of the ridge.

Claiming this to be Alex redux is a little premature.

As always, just my $.04...

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 92, 2010091112, , BEST, 0, 140N, 636W, 25, 1009, DB

[gatorcane]

Well all I can say I am glad it is the 384 hour GFS. Ouch for South Florida is all I have to say.

link?

That is being discussed in this thread on Talkin Tropics:
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=104813

That way we can get back to discussing 92L here.

[cycloneye]

The latest at 13:15z. Looking great. A plane would be good to fly today instead of tommorow to see what is beneath of those clouds.

[AtlanticWind]

Seems to be heading NW-NNW toward Puerto Rico right now .