ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[HURAKAN]

Conventional thinking tells you that the lower the pressure, the higher the winds. Nonetheless, it all depends on the environment relative pressure. In 2003, Hurricane Danny had winds of 75 mph and a pressure of 1006 mb, while Wilma had winds of 50 mph and a pressure of 989 mb.

[deltadog03]

Looks like the center is a little to the NE of the old VDM fix.

[mulley]

http://www.gearthblog.com/blog/archives ... _in_g.html

[lrak]

its moved/jogged all day and ended up due North of where it emerged from the coast.

[Air Force Met]

The last visible shots gave the appearance that the center is jogging back to the NW?

You were probably seeing the spiral bands expanding. Recon is confirming that Alex is moving a little east of due north.

[MGC]

Key to wind speed is pressure gradient. Alex is looking better this evening. At its current rate of intensification, Alex should reach hurricane intensity some time tomorrow.....MGC

[brunota2003]

The last visible shots gave the appearance that the center is jogging back to the NW?

You were probably seeing the spiral bands expanding. Recon is confirming that Alex is moving a little east of due north.

The convection clouds (with the ball over the center) on B&W IR are moving to the NNW as they expand...perhaps that is what they are seeing...Recon does indeed confirm, however, that the LLC is moving NNNNNNNE.

[timNms]

The last visible shots gave the appearance that the center is jogging back to the NW?

You were probably seeing the spiral bands expanding. Recon is confirming that Alex is moving a little east of due north.

The convection clouds (with the ball over the center) on B&W IR are moving to the NNW as they expand...perhaps that is what they are seeing...Recon does indeed confirm, however, that the LLC is moving NNNNNNNE.

And what is that going to do to the forecast for an eventual landfall?

[Evil Jeremy]

Alex has shrugged off the shear and now has nothing to stop him from intensifying. This will be a Hurricane by tomorrow morning, no later than the 11AM advisory. It all is a matter of how north he moves before that ridge builds back in. I'd say that Hurricane Warnings for Texas will come out very soon.

[Evil Jeremy]

And what is that going to do to the forecast for an eventual landfall?

A growing storm moving North. As more convection spreads westward though, it should draw in the center (it always follows the convection). As for the LCC itself, the more north it moves, and the faster it does so, the more it puts Texas into the cone.

[TwisterFanatic]

IF you ask me this is starting to look more like a Texas storm...

[Ivanhater]

[timNms]

I posted this on the model thread but no one has answered.
Question for AFM or anyone with some expertise.
We've got a front moving in and an ULL over MS/LA. I'm assuming the ULL is going to continue to move eastward and get outta the way. However, what's going to happen with the front. Is it going to wash out (or retreat back as a warm front) and allow Alex to turn west?
Local NWS here is saying the front is going to stall out around the I 20 corridor in MS and hang out for a few days.
Correct me if I'm wrong here, but don't fronts tend to steer tropical systems? I don't recall ever hearing of a tropical system crossing a front. If the front doesn't wash out or retreat to the north, what happens to Alex and his track? I also have read that a high is supposed to be building in to the north, but in order for that to happen and it have an effect on Alex's path, wouldn't the front have to be out of the way?

[wxman57]

what's the best type of satellite at night to to use to determine an LLC and where it's moving? I know vis is best in the day time.

Probably microwave imagery:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... npage.html

You won't be able to see the center unless you have a satellite that can see through clouds, like in the microwave wavelength.

[tailgater]

My rough calculations.
00:54 20.73 N 91.56W
02:18 20.86 N 91.55W about 10 miles in @ 2.5 hrs. = 4mph @ 5 degrees (N)

[HouTXmetro]

excellent graphic Ivan, where did you get it from and can you keep posting it?

[Evil Jeremy]

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF
BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM THE
MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR.

[SunnyThoughts]

[thetruesms]

We haven't had a good microwave image posted up in a while. On the plus side, the most recent pass is the one with the most coverage. Unfortunately, it's still just old enough that it's not really capturing the most recent developments, which is what I was hoping to see

[brunota2003]

So much for all those arguments earlier about which one is more reliable THEY ARE ALL WRONG!