ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[timNms]

Am I being ignored here?

[Ivanhater]

It's a program you have to download..here is the site

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/

[wx247]

Am I being ignored here?

Tim, I don't think you are being ignored. I am not sure the pro mets have had a chance to look over the question at this time... new advisory, track, and warning info is coming out as we speak.

[psyclone]

Alex is looking better and better. that massive outer convective band may help provide a moist cocoon for an inner core to develop. what a cool storm to watch evolve. good luck to everyone in its eventual path. this definitely looks like a solid hurricane in the making, a rarity for june. i don't even think we got a june cane in 2005. probably need to go back to 1995.

[hurricaneCW]

Question:

If Alex becomes a major hurricane in June, would it be the 1st or 2nd major hurricane in June. If not, than what was the strongest June cane in the Atlantic?

[HURAKAN]

Question:

If Alex becomes a major hurricane in June, would it be the 1st or 2nd major hurricane in June. If not, than what was the strongest June cane in the Atlantic?

Audrey, 1957, was the strongest hurricane in June (cat. 4)

[hurricaneCW]

Oh ok thanks.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

It's a program you have to download..here is the site

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/

how did you get the old center location up? I can only get the latest center position. Thanks fopr posting that pic. Great graphic!

[timNms]

Am I being ignored here?

Tim, I don't think you are being ignored. I am not sure the pro mets have had a chance to look over the question at this time... new advisory, track, and warning info is coming out as we speak.

wx247, Maybe you're right

[Air Force Met]

However, what's going to happen with the front. Is it going to wash out (or retreat back as a warm front) and allow Alex to turn west?

I also have read that a high is supposed to be building in to the north, but in order for that to happen and it have an effect on Alex's path, wouldn't the front have to be out of the way?

When thinking of steering for tropical systems...you must think higher than the surface. Fronts are surface features. Fronts don't turn hurricanes...its the upper level winds that brings the fronts down in the first place (upper level trofs and lows) that do that. A front will, however, because of cold air convection, weaken a ridge aloft...and create a weakness.

The high that is supposed to be building (and is building over the Rockies) is not at the sfc...but up at around 18,000 feet. Fronts move out of the way when high like that build because of sinking air and other thermo-dynamic phenom. that is frankley very complicated to explain and I would be here all night...

[Raider Power]

It's a program you have to download..here is the site

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/

Cool stuff. Thanks.

[HurrMark]

INITIAL 29/0300Z 21.0N 91.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 22.2N 92.3W 65 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 23.6N 93.5W 70 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 24.5N 95.2W 75 KT
48HR VT 01/0000Z 25.2N 96.9W 80 KT
72HR VT 02/0000Z 25.7N 99.6W 45 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 03/0000Z 27.0N 102.0W 20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Hmmm...still looks like on the Mexican side statistically, but Brownsville will get a wallop.

[Portastorm]

It is a bit surreal to see my town in the NHC wind probability chart. Doesn't happen too often (thankfully).

[deltadog03]

This is one tricky forecast, but I still think an area just south of BRO to maybe up to Corpus is my landfalling area for now. I think the models are gonna flop around a few more times.

[Explorer93]

When I read this [http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/290248.shtml] is that telling us that we are gonna see another stall?

[AJC3]

I posted this on the model thread but no one has answered. Question for AFM or anyone with some expertise.

We've got a front moving in and an ULL over MS/LA. I'm assuming the ULL is going to continue to move eastward and get outta the way. However, what's going to happen with the front. Is it going to wash out (or retreat back as a warm front) and allow Alex to turn west?
Local NWS here is saying the front is going to stall out around the I 20 corridor in MS and hang out for a few days.

Correct me if I'm wrong here, but don't fronts tend to steer tropical systems? I don't recall ever hearing of a tropical system crossing a front. If the front doesn't wash out or retreat to the north, what happens to Alex and his track? I also have read that a high is supposed to be building in to the north, but in order for that to happen and it have an effect on Alex's path, wouldn't the front have to be out of the way?

To address your first question, the whole thing about "fronts" steering tropical systems is simplistic, and really a misnomer perpetuated by meteorologists who are either too ignorant or too lazy to explain what is actually happening. A front is nothing more than a boundary between air masses. Tropical cyclones are steered by mean layer winds, the depth of which depends on how vertically deep/coherent (i.e. strong) the cyclone is.

Fronts don't magically attract or deflect storms. Not all fronts are created equal and the mid and upper air pattern can vary greatly above the surface. Strong cold fronts are usually oriented more meridionally (N-S) and associated with strongly amplified (sharp or deep) mid and upper level troughs which in turn create a deep layer of southerly and southwest flow which is sufficient to recurve a cyclone. Weak fronts (generally oriented more zonally E-W) are associated with weak upper troughs which are usually not sufficient to recurve a TC. A lot also depends on the position of the front and it's parent mid-upper level trough in relation to the TC.

In short, look at more than the fact that there's a front there. Look at more levels (850MB, 700MB, 500MB, etc.) to gauge more accurately what effect an area near a cold front might have on a TC.

[cycloneye]

[Air Force Met]

Am I being ignored here?

Tim, I don't think you are being ignored. I am not sure the pro mets have had a chance to look over the question at this time... new advisory, track, and warning info is coming out as we speak.

Correct. I can't speak for the rest of the guys...but I am swamped. I hang out at storm 2 K..not because I have a lot of free time...but to keep my sanity and bounce ideas off people.

Like most pro-mets on this site that work in the TX gulf coast area...my weekend plans got canceled. I worked today...which is normally a day off...I was up till 2 am last night and up at 6...and have barely left the computer all day. I've had 8 conference calls today...

So...there are times I miss questions...or just skim replies. When I am on a call (like with the State)...I may disappear for up to an hour. If you PM me...I will get to any and all questions eventually

[deltadog03]

I still think this forecast might be a bit too fast. Oh, BTW, this ridge that is building in will not last too long...I hate to say it.....but, timing will be everything (speed)

[Dean4Storms]

It's like I said earlier, with the stall that the models were not indicating and the jog northward you could pretty much throw out the old model runs. This movement to the north changes the outcome and if this movement continues it could be large!!