ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Time_Zone]

I mentioned yesterday that I doubted it was a Cat 4. I also said that if the dry air intrudes, it could be reduced all the way down to a Cat 1. Cat 1 is probably to low given the heat content available, probably a Cat 2.

Err....it doesn't look like it's going to be a cat 1 hurricane anytime soon...

[TheBurn]

Here comes the front...
-

[SkeetoBite]

[seahawkjd]

So were the models just updated? I see on the model page for Weather Underground they say 8am.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Thanks for all the graphics and info...much appreciated!

[UpTheCreek]

I mentioned yesterday that I doubted it was a Cat 4. I also said that if the dry air intrudes, it could be reduced all the way down to a Cat 1. Cat 1 is probably to low given the heat content available, probably a Cat 2.

Let me guess, you're a glass half empty type of person?

Anyway, there's going to be fluctuations in his shape and strength, but it's going to keep on movin' on. Lookin' pretty nice right now!

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... im8ir.html

[UpTheCreek]

[quote="TheBurn"]Here comes the front...
-

I believe that front is going to make it in time to keep Earl off of a landfall here in NC.

[plasticup]

Here comes the front...

I believe that front is going to make it in time to keep Earl off of a landfall here in NC.

Sure is gonna be close...

[tolakram]

LOOP: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

[plasticup]

Is all NHC imagery broken you guys too? I'm getting 404 errors.

[Raebie]

While there is a lot of dry air around, the core of the storm looks very well organized and looks improved from yesterday.

What dry air around the core? Folks keep mentioning it and I'm not seeing it.

[Macrocane]

@plasticup

Unfortunately yes, I've had to use Accuweather and GHCC imagery to follow the tracks but they're not as good as SSD site.

[plasticup]

While there is a lot of dry air around, the core of the storm looks very well organized and looks improved from yesterday.

What dry air around the core? Folks keep mentioning it and I'm not seeing it.

Here, around the southern and now eastern sides. If that dry air encroaches on the core, intensity will take a big hit.

[tolakram]

Dry air does not seem to be a problem at all anymore, and Earl appears to be strengthening once again.

WV LOOP: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

[Time_Zone]

While there is a lot of dry air around, the core of the storm looks very well organized and looks improved from yesterday.

What dry air around the core? Folks keep mentioning it and I'm not seeing it.

Yea Earl is looking great right now...but...there's always gonna be downcasters

He seems to be pushing the dry air out.

[jabman98]

Someone in Wisconsin posted here last night saying the front was hitting them at that time, when it had been forecasted to hit them in the afternoon. Sounded like it was 4-6 hours later than expected. The timing for the front and Earl is going to be tight.

Couldn't believe when I turned on the TV this morning in Houston and the local weather met said we're going to get the cold front here on Friday. Must be a strong front if it's dipping this low this early in the fall. We don't usually get them this early.

Hopefully it'll pick up Earl and keep him offshore away from NC and New England.

[plasticup]

Dry air does not seem to be a problem at all anymore, and Earl appears to be strengthening once again.

WV LOOP: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

That's because the dry air hasn't been introduced to the core. It'll take a few more hours for that swath to be pulled deeper into the storm.

[Frank2]

Slight westward jog perhaps not related to stair-stepping:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

note Fiona and Earl's outflow (wow)...

[emeraldislencguy]

yes the site is broken here too
hope they get it fixed soon
can someone post some other sites

[Frank2]

NHC site is up as usual...