EPAC : EX TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA

[HURAKAN]

Track and forecast ... that's what's I like about intellicast.com

[Macrocane]

Sorry for the quality of the video, it is very dark but you can hear and more or less see how the wind has become stronger tonight in El Salvador:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JJZDSzWL324

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012010
800 PM PDT SAT MAY 29 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA MOVING FARTHER INLAND...TORRENTIAL
RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 92.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM...ENE OF TAPACHULA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7
KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS
AGATHA MOVES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...A FEW TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS IN SQUALLS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE PRIMARILY OVER WATER TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO...GUATEMALA...AND MUCH OF EL SALVADOR...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 30 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...THE LARGE WAVES OCCURRING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI

[SouthFloridawx]

That outflow was looking really nice. Too bad it didn't have more time.

[KWT]

Convection still looking reasonable enough, if it emerged much further south I'd give it half a chance but given the track its on will take it towards the edge of the very high shear levels in the Gulf currently I'd have to say I'd put the odds of any sort of redevelopment at a very low level indeed.

[alan1961]

Track and forecast ... that's what's I like about intellicast.com

Hi Hurakan, do you know what as happened to the
track map on NRL Monterey, dont seem to be there anymore?

[Iceperple]

If it still turn to EW,I don't believe it will return to the sea.

The last across Central America was 1996DOLLY and CESAR

[cycloneye]

Last Advisory

TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012010
200 AM PDT SUN MAY 30 2010

...AGATHA DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN GUATEMALA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 91.7W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM...NE OF TAPACHULA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF AGATHA WERE LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST. THE REMNANTS OF AGATHA
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 6 MPH...9
KM/HR THROUGH TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF AGATHA WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE THIS MORNING.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO...GUATEMALA...AND MUCH OF EL SALVADOR...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 30 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

WTPZ41 KNHC 300838
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012010
200 AM PDT SUN MAY 30 2010

AGATHA HAS MOVED INTO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN CENTRAL AMERICA WHICH
HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THE CYCLONE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS DISSIPATED...THEREFORE THIS WILL
BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LARGE AREA OVER CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MUCH OF GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...WESTERN HONDURAS...AND
PORTIONS OF BELIZE. ALTHOUGH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS
DISSIPATED...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH-FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. AS INDICATED IN THE NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY...MAXIMUM
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD REACH 30
INCHES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0900Z 15.6N 91.7W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12HR VT 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

Hi Hurakan, do you know what as happened to the
track map on NRL Monterey, dont seem to be there anymore?

The JTWC is using the NHC's map for the track

Link - http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC

[KWT]

Well thats the end of Agatha, still need to perhaps keep a close eye on it just in case it does re-emerge back into the Caribbean but I think its looking likely that the ends of the first storm of 2010 that the NHC has had to deal with...

[Macrocane]

Heavy rains continue to fall in El Salvador, thankfully the wind is in calm, at least 6 people are dead in El Salvador.

http://www.laprensagrafica.com/el-salvador/social/121270-contabilizan-seis-muertes-por-lluvias-en-el-salvador.html (in Spanish)

[HURAKAN]

1 in = 25.4 millimeters

[HURAKAN]

Very intense rainfall

[KWT]

Thats all this area needs, more heavy rain from convection blowing up, not all that surprising given the moist SW flow that is still coming in from the Pacific.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The storm is now overland. It will be moving over warm carribean waters over the next 24-36 hours. Then the storm will assume a NE or NNE track towrds florida.

Some convection is already coming off the coast into the carribean.

Based on the info above plus the GFDL and HWRF model runs,this is my forcast below.

0 Hours-TD-30MPH,inland
6 Hours-TD-25MPH,inland
12 Hours-TD-25MPH,inland
24 Hours-TD-25MPH,emerging into the carribean
48 Hours-TD-35MPH
72 Hours-TS-50MPH
96 Hours-TS-60MPH,nearing cuba
120 Hours-TS-65MPH,over cuba

Next forcast by me will be issued at 2PM EDT

[Sanibel]

No chance on re-forming and heading into the Gulf - right?

[boca]

No chance on re-forming and heading into the Gulf - right?

I was wondering the same thing wxman57 posted that the trough will be in the eastern part of the US creating unfavorable conditions like a 50-60 jet across the GOM and NW Caribbean Sea.All the moisture should be shunted into E Cuba and Haiti bypassing Florida. This is according to what he said yesterday.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[alan1961]

Hi Hurakan, do you know what as happened to the
track map on NRL Monterey, dont seem to be there anymore?

The JTWC is using the NHC's map for the track

Link - http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC

Thank you

[Chacor]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The storm is now overland. It will be moving over warm carribean waters over the next 24-36 hours. Then the storm will assume a NE or NNE track towrds florida.

Some convection is already coming off the coast into the carribean.

Based on the info above plus the GFDL and HWRF model runs,this is my forcast below.

0 Hours-TD-30MPH,inland
6 Hours-TD-25MPH,inland
12 Hours-TD-25MPH,inland
24 Hours-TD-25MPH,emerging into the carribean
48 Hours-TD-35MPH
72 Hours-TS-50MPH
96 Hours-TS-60MPH,nearing cuba
120 Hours-TS-65MPH,over cuba

Next forcast by me will be issued at 2PM EDT

I don't want to use the W-word so early in the season but I will say that that is an... extremely optimistic forecast.