ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - RECON DISCUSSION

[americanre1]

KWT how strong do you think this storm will become, since it looks like it has 8 to 16 hours minimum still over water???

[cycloneye]

Second pass from SE to NW comming in minutes.

[KWT]

Center a little to the NW of what was expected, winds upto 76kts at the surface of the NW eyewall...I think we may well end up finding winds high enough to justify category-2 in the NE eyewall....just....

[cycloneye]

963 mbs lowest at pass from SE to NW.

[Thunder44]

Center a little to the NW of what was expected, winds upto 76kts at the surface of the NW eyewall...I think we may well end up finding winds high enough to justify category-2 in the NE eyewall....just....

I think it's starting feel the effects of the ridge building to the north. It's speeding up and making a sharp left turn now. I think it will make landfall near Puerto de Alambre,MX early tonight, with winds near 105mph.

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[tolakram]

Here we go, important run through the NE eyewall.

[CrazyC83]

The key number for an upgrade to Cat 2 in the FL wind column: 104 kt. (SFMR of 83 kt would also do it)

[HURAKAN]

crazy, are u taking over the HDOBs?

[CrazyC83]

crazy, are u taking over the HDOBs?

Yeah I mentioned that in a previous post that I was only going for a short bit (about 20 minutes in the end). Please continue with graphics though as I don't know how to do them.

[KWT]

Well its now or never for this system, probably won't get another shot to get a category-2 I reckon given the dry moat developing and the fact its getting rather close to land now...

[CrazyC83]

The next 2 passes should tell the tale (the first pass = inner maxima, second pass = outer maxima). Need 104 or 83. The 01 in the last column means the temperature/dewpoint is questionable, 05 means BOTH temperature/dewpoint and SFMR are questionable.

[tolakram]

Looks like they may have missed the center by a bit, plus they will not be flying through the heaviest squalls. In my opinion.

[KWT]

Well looks like they haven't found the winds to justify category-2 so looks like Alex will remain a category-1 upon landfall...

Also moving due west more or less between the last vortex statements.

[KWT]

Looks like recon may just about get one chance to go through the NE eyewall before the system goes inland and the aircraft has to fly back to base.

Heading for the NW eyewall...will be interesting to see what they find.

[tolakram]

Straight down, this should be interesting.

[KWT]

Pressure *much* lower this pass....but still not winds that can justify an upgrade.

[CrazyC83]

Normally, 956mb equates about 105 kt. Quite a difference off normal here still.

[ROCK]

108 fl winds? 955MB?

[SunnyThoughts]

Recon is making another pass

[Chris_in_Tampa]

One last shot at the center?

Since there does not seem to be enough time for another flight to get out there before landfall, however long this flight can stay out is probably all the additional reconnaissance we will get.