WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONSON

[theavocado]

a lot of changes have to happen at PAGASA, three hour warnings when a storm is about 24 hours from landfall, such as it should be an independent body...and get those freaking dopplers online!

I'm not sure 3 hourly warnings would do much. Numerical models are only run every 6 or 12 hours, depending on the model. I don't see that changing anytime soon: given the choice of applying new computer power to faster outputs or higher resolution, most of the time higher resolution wins.

Totally agree with the RADAR issue....

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 03W (CONSON) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 16.9N 111.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 111.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.9N 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 19.0N 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 20.2N 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 21.2N 106.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 22.5N 104.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 111.4E.
TYPHOON (TY) 03W (CONSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTHEAST OF
HAINAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TYPHOON BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF 65 TO 77 KNOTS FROM KNES, PGTW, AND RJTD, AS WELL AS A PARTIAL
151615Z 37 GHZ TRMM MICROWAVE PASS INDICATING A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION BASED
ON A 151806Z 89 GHZ AMSU IMAGE DEPICTING A BANDING EYE FEATURE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH PASSING
OVER NORTHEASTERN CHINA AND A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSHPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) CELL OVER LUZON HAVE CAUSED A WEAKENING IN THE NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY TO TYPHOON STRENGTH. TY 03W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG AN EXTENSION OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG THIS TRACK, SKIRTING SOUTHERN HAINAN
BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24, THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, TY 03W IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75
KNOTS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER AN AREA OF MODERATE (20 TO 25
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SSTS. NEAR TAU 24 THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WITH THE
MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN HAINAN AND INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN. BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48 TY 03W
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR HANOI, VIETNAM. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TCLAPS AND GFDN
WHICH ERRONEOUSLY DRIVE THE SYSTEM INTO THE STEERING RIDGE.
THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST FAVORS A TRACK SLIGHTLY WEST OF MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

70 kt seems reasonable given the structure.

[KWT]

This is nothing short of a huge bust for the JWTC, both in terms of intensity and track, most of the agencies aren't covering themselves with glory with this one.

Looking good right now, could make a run for 80-85kts before coming close to land...though it may just skirt past as well...

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 03W (CONSON) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 16.9N 110.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 110.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.7N 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.8N 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 20.0N 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 21.0N 105.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.1N 103.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 110.4E.
TYPHOON (TY) 03W (CONSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTHEAST OF
HAINAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.//
NNNN

[Typhoon Hunter]

Hi guys.

I'm in Sanya right now on south cost of Hainan, took a gamble and went after Conson.

Tracking the eye on radar here and it looks like it could come close.

http://www.weather.com.cn/static/radar_ ... ADAR_HN_JB

I'm staying a ridiculously nice ocean view resort (view at my website) so if we do get action hopefully I'll get good video. I'll post more updates as things progress.

[cycloneye]

Be careful there and stay safe.

[oaba09]

Amazing recovery by conson....great convection.....I hope the people on it's path will be better prepared than we were.......

[HURAKAN]

Shear continues to impact the system

[phwxenthusiast]

a lot of changes have to happen at PAGASA, three hour warnings when a storm is about 24 hours from landfall, such as it should be an independent body...and get those freaking dopplers online!

I'm not sure 3 hourly warnings would do much. Numerical models are only run every 6 or 12 hours, depending on the model. I don't see that changing anytime soon: given the choice of applying new computer power to faster outputs or higher resolution, most of the time higher resolution wins.

Totally agree with the RADAR issue....

well they should not entirely rely on numerical models alone... they could look at the latest satellite images, wind and barometer readings to make a "rough" estimate as to how the typhoon is progressing...

i, too, can't wait for the radars to be online...

[Typhoon Hunter]

Pressure down to 995hPa here in Sanya and winds picking up with large surf crashing into the beach. Not long before core convection starts to pass overhead.

[P.K.]

JMA up to T4.5 at 06Z so I think we have the first TY of the year.

[Chacor]

Way overdue, we have Typhoon Conson.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Conditions getting very wild, camera rolling! Pressure now 990hPa....more updates to come.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 160900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1002 CONSON (1002)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160900UTC 17.8N 109.7E GOOD
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 170900UTC 19.7N 106.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 180600UTC 22.3N 104.8E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Remains a typhoon at 0900z.

[Infdidoll]

Conditions getting very wild, camera rolling! Pressure now 990hPa....more updates to come.

Wow! I'd tell you to stay safe, but I'll trust you do your best, as you always do. Can't wait to hear further updates.

This season is turning into something, quickly. NRL has two more invests that popped up on radar a few hours ago. So much to track and analyze! Nothing more exciting/fearful than an active basin.

[Chacor]

Neither of those look particularly like anything yet at the moment though. In a moment I'll have a look at typhoon formation dates...