ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Discussion

[Gustywind]

8 PM EDT TWO stays at 70%

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARDS ISLANDS
REMAINS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...AND ANY SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Hey let's take it with humour. Without any island or land in vicinity of 93L that's very good news! It can stay like, no worry about. Afterwards 70% of chances of missing any land .

[supercane]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 100003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON AUG 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ANALYZED AS A
1014 MB LOW NEAR 24N49W WHICH IS ABOUT 800 NM E-NE OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W-NW NEAR 8-13 KT AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NW AND N DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
NE OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 23N45W TO 27N49W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND ANY SIGNIFICANT
ORGANIZATION OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION
OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

<snip>

[supercane]

Now not even classifiable under Dvorak per SSD:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
09/2345 UTC 23.6N 50.4W TOO WEAK 93L
09/1745 UTC 23.5N 49.2W T1.0/1.5 93L
09/1145 UTC 23.2N 48.0W T1.5/1.5 93L

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 93, 2010081000, , BEST, 0, 236N, 503W, 30, 1012, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[KWT]

I think supercane that says it all, why they kept it at 70% is baffling, this would have never got a 70% if it looked like this in the E.Atlantic...I'm convinced...

[HURAKAN]

[supercane]

What's up with the screaming faces?

[lester]

Bonnie had more convection than this

[StormClouds63]

70%?
Are the NHC mets looking at the same system as we are?

[brunota2003]

There is a well defined llc, it is in an area where the SSTs are plenty warm, and the shear is low currently. The only thing missing is an area of organized, sustained convection...so, if the NHC dropped the percentages to 20%, and then a few hours later convection formed and the system became a TD later that day, would you guys start going "How did the NHC miss this? Why did they drop the % to 20?! They really screwed up!"

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
SHEAR (KT)        16    15    15    15    19    24    25    14    10     4    13    16    32


Shear on the increase according to SHIPS

[HURAKAN]

There is a well defined llc, it is in an area where the SSTs are plenty warm, and the shear is low currently. The only thing missing is an area of organized, sustained convection...so, if the NHC dropped the percentages to 20%, and then a few hours later convection formed and the system became a TD later that day, would you guys start going "How did the NHC miss this? Why did they drop the % to 20?! They really screwed up!"

I myself would have lowered the chances to 50% ... although the system is fairly well organized (+50), it has been unable to sustain convection due to the dry air around it (-50).

The system has been trying but the environment has been unrelenting.

[cycloneye]

If anyone wants to ask questions to the NHC folks regarding the percent topic, you can email them. nhc.public.affairs@noaa.gov

[HURAKAN]

93L trying again tonight

[cycloneye]

But the LLC is SW of that ball.

[HURAKAN]

:uarrow: But the LLC is SW of that ball.

yeah, same as always!!

[Sanibel]

My angercast says it is heading right into the teeth of a ULL while already naked.

[chzzdekr81]

STAYS AT 70%
000
ABNT20 KNHC 100534
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 825 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARDS ISLANDS REMAINS LIMITED. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND ANY SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AT ANY TIME. THE LOW IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH...AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT
75 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA IS INCREASING AND GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...ALONG WITH
UPPER-AIR...DOPPLER RADAR...AND SATELLITE INFORMATION...INDICATE
THAT THE LOW IS ALSO BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THE LOW COULD ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Florida1118]

Just a little fire over the LLC and TD #5 is born.....Its running out of time.

[Ivanhater]

Just a little fire over the LLC and TD #5 is born.....Its running out of time.

Take a look at the models on this..most of them ramp this up to Hurricane status