ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[srainhoutx]

Still lacking deep convection on the eastern half. Another day or so will likely be needed to ramp this up IMO.

[Vortex]

Hats off to the NAM...It never waivered and has been on this every single run since tuesday...The "only" model that remained consistant with development...

[Vortex]

Im very concerned for folks in DR/Haiti...It appears based on the synoptics that the center will pass over or very near Haiti with torrential rains likely across the island....

[Ivanhater]

Im very concerned for folks in DR/Haiti...It appears based on the synoptics that the center will pass over or very near Haiti with torrential rains likely across the island....

Heavy rain looks to be a certainty for Hispaniola.

[Vortex]

Looking at the synoptics it appears that a weak are of low pressure may develop at the base of the trough moving off the east coast North of DR in about 24 hours...This may be the reason it has indicated a more northerly motion beyond 24hrs on the 06z run..

[ronjon]

Hats off to the NAM...It never waivered and has been on this every single run since tuesday...The "only" model that remained consistant with development...

yeah vortex, the NAM has consistently developed 92L. I agree this disturbance is well on its way to being a TD. A few models, HWRF and NAM, and yesterdays CMC, bring the system north of the greater antilles. There is a considerable weakness off the SE US that is forecast to deepen over the next few days. If 92L ramps up quickly, it may feel this weakness and get tugged north of the GA. It would probably cross over Hispanola to get to the north side. I think that would be disasterous for the island of Hispanola with mudslides and heavy flooding if that occurred. Wish we had recon today to pinpoint that LLC - there is some rotation on the NE side of the convection this morning.

[ronjon]

Interesting that the 06Z HWRF pegs the LLC at 15.5-64.5 for its 8 am position today. That's where I placed the circulation center from SAT this morning.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2010091106-invest92l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Vortex]

thats around where I have it right now as well ron...



Luis it sure looks like your going to get some heavy squalls later today and into tonight...

[boca]

The HWRF has 92L heading eventually up this way according to the 06 run.

[Vortex]

12Z Nam still rolling out but like the 6z run it begins a more poleward turn beyond H+54....Given its presentation currently and the fact were likely to have a deeper system in about 2 days this solution can not be ignored...





http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Gustywind]

[srainhoutx]

Nice anticyclonic flow becoming established. Certainly looking better structurally aloft than it has.

[CrazyC83]

I sure hope this isn't Haiti's doomsday storm!!!

[Vortex]

This was yesterday's 6Z GFDL run....Sure looks plausible looking at the current/forecasted synoptics....





http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[jlauderdal]

Still lacking deep convection on the eastern half. Another day or so will likely be needed to ramp this up IMO.

yep, we had sunday/monday as the target a few days ago, needed to get away from the SW carib and sure enough its right on schedule, modeling seems to be heading to the hispanola eastern cuba shredder but we shall see what happens, lots of luv for the nam this morning

[wxman57]

There's a weakness in the ridge to the north over the next 2-3 days but there's a massive ridge over Texas and the NW Gulf to the west of 92L. Either it turns north very shortly or it's Mexico-bound. Texas looks to be OK with the high overhead. I don't think it's turning north, so my money is on Mexico, maybe south of Tampico.

[gatorcane]

I just don't see it making it north of the Greater Antilles. There is alot of convection at the moment, but that does not mean its deepening. Still looks like the whole blob is moving west. As WxMan notes, the weakness is gone in about 2 or 3 days, that would prevent a turn to the NW in the WCAR towards the GOM.

As for Haiti, I wouldn't claim any kind of disaster is setting up with the rain potential, could easily slide south brushing them with rain, but not enough to be disastrous.

[Vortex]

If the 12Z NAM is correct this would be an absolute disaster for Hispanolia...



H+ 84


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[srainhoutx]

We do have a model thread for 92L. Perhaps we should be posting model output in that Topic.

[jlauderdal]

I sure hope this isn't Haiti's doomsday storm!!!

flooding rains are a given in that part of the world so lets not get too dramatic every time a tropical system sets up shop over that area, if it isnt this one it will be the next one, its just a fact of life