ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[HURAKAN]

No vortex message so far, weird

[KWT]

Looking better though the Vis.imagery does still suggest its a little flat on the NW Quadrant, possibly thanks to the light shear that is still present helping to drive in the dry air between the storm and the convective outer band.

Probably is very close to being a hurricane...

[Ntxwx]

No vortex message so far, weird

URNT12 KNHC 291232 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012010
A. 29/11:29:00Z
B. 22 deg 22 min N
092 deg 37 min W
C. 850 mb 1276 m
D. 57 kt
E. 087 deg 19 nm
F. 145 deg 70 kt
G. 063 deg 68 nm
H. 983 mb
I. 17 C / 1521 m
J. 20 C / 1525 m
K. 18 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
P. AF306 0801A ALEX OB 05 CCA
MAX FL WIND 70 KT NE QUAD 11:05:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C 089 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
RADAR SHOWS PARTIAL EYEWALL NE AND MULTIPLE THIN SPIRAL BANDS
;

[HURAKAN]

That's the old vortex message

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

No vortex message so far, weird

URNT12 KNHC 291232 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012010
A. 29/11:29:00Z
B. 22 deg 22 min N
092 deg 37 min W
C. 850 mb 1276 m
D. 57 kt
E. 087 deg 19 nm
F. 145 deg 70 kt
G. 063 deg 68 nm
H. 983 mb
I. 17 C / 1521 m
J. 20 C / 1525 m
K. 18 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
P. AF306 0801A ALEX OB 05 CCA
MAX FL WIND 70 KT NE QUAD 11:05:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C 089 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
RADAR SHOWS PARTIAL EYEWALL NE AND MULTIPLE THIN SPIRAL BANDS
;

thats a old Vortex message from the last pass not this past pass.

[alan1961]

Far outer bands showing up on Brownsville radar.

And from the sky to from south padre island cam

http://www.islagrand.com/live-beach-cam/cam-viewer.htm

[tolakram]

Far outer bands showing up on Brownsville radar.

And from the sky to from south padre island cam

http://www.islagrand.com/live-beach-cam/cam-viewer.htm

Wow. Look at those low clouds moving.

[cycloneye]

[KWT]

That's the old vortex message

Yah its quite strange, plus the fact it seemed like recon slightly missed the center punch last time having to go slightly east again to get the center, ah well all fun and games!

NE quadrant will be very interesting to observe, could be close to hurricane status if not reaching it.

[cycloneye]

From latest Vortex Message:

MULTIPLE THIN SPIRAL BANDS IN EYE WITH INNER MOST BAND DIAM 25 NM

[KWT]

Impressive that we already have outer convection spreading into the border area. I think even if the system ends up to the south of the border by a good distance there is still going to be alot of rain in the next few days with such a large system.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Impressive that we already have outer convection spreading into the border area. I think even if the system ends up to the south of the border by a good distance there is still going to be alot of rain in the next few days with such a large system.

Yeah, i think SW of Houston will get slammed especially if its moving slowly. Guess who is going to be on a river house SW of Houston this weekend?!?!?


<----- this guy

[Tireman4]

Impressive that we already have outer convection spreading into the border area. I think even if the system ends up to the south of the border by a good distance there is still going to be alot of rain in the next few days with such a large system.

Yeah, i think SW of Houston will get slammed especially if its moving slowly. Guess who is going to be on a river house SW of Houston this weekend?!?!?


<----- this guy

Ouch. Have fun.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yep, I'm thinking a landfalling hurricane between 75 mph and 85 mph. I think the NHC is calling for minimal cat2 just to cover themselves, because you never know....

It's better to be safe than sorry. But as others have mentioned, Alex looks like a total mess right now, and due to the immense size, it's going to be extremely slow to organize(if it does at all)....I honestly thought I'd wake up to a much better looking system.

I see no signs of it organizing soon....Maybe sometime tomorrow.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I think its on the edge of being a mess right now. Over the next 4-6 hours i think we will now what the landfall strength will be. Thats its best chance to get its act together over the open water. Glad to see it moving this morning though.

[KWT]

I think CZ it has every shot at a category-2, just looking at the way deep convection is developing over the center and from the sounds of things we do have an inner core developing at last according to recon, even if it is messy.

I personally think 75-85kts has more chance of coming off than 75-85mph but we shall see...structure looks good enough for steady strengthening to occur with shear still dropping away.

Much larger band heading towards Mexico and S.Texas. What sort of rainfall totals are we looking at in the next 72hrs I wonder?

[HURAKAN]

ConvergenceZone, I would consider cat 2 or even 3 if the environment remains favorable due to the fact that Alex will be moving over high OHC values.

[tolakram]

I think it's important to note that Alex is just now entering deep waters. With the slow movement and shallow waters I believe energy was limited.

I have no clue how strong Alex can get, but I think it's incorrect to judge future performance on what it's looked like over the last day or so.

[WeatherGuesser]

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 93.1W
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES