ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[cycloneye]

[tolakram]

The turn has begun, looks like NMex is going to verify.

[KWT]

Motion slowly turning towards true NW, still gaining some decent latitude according to that at 325 but won't be long before it gains as much longitude as latitude.

Certainly is blowing up in the center, still got a few issues with the amount of subsidence working itself around the circulation but the deeper into the higher OHC region it goes the stronger the convection will become and the system maybe able to mix it all out.

NHC track still looking good, we know MX/TX border within say 100 miles is the call that is most likely to come off.

Landfall looks to be about 30-36hrs away...

[KWT]

Looks like the latest forecast is a little bit faster than the other one, though it still arrives during the eveing hours...

Quite glad I have tomorrow off work to watch the whole landfall unfold....

Convective cells working thier way steadily towards S.Texas and Mexico still though the circulation still is far away enough to send them SSW down the Gulf.

[funster]

Hopefully Alex won't get too much stronger since Brownsville looks to wind up the bad side of it. It does look much healthier than yesterday.

[KWT]

Yeah Funster the presentation is steadily improving right now, just had a look at it on the Vis imagery and you can see the inner part of the storm starting to wrap the convection tighter into itself.

[NEXRAD]

Keep an eye on the large convective mass situated north and not directly to Alex's present core. Some of the specially colored satellite imagery from late night/early AM shows this Nrn convection as having some banding within it. The activity should link-up with Alex's core during the afternoon. This is likely to be a very large storm with impacts quite far from the center.

- Jay
South Florida

[jasons2k]

Sure is breezy here in Houston today and the cumulus clouds are moving from the ENE at a pretty good clip. It is certainly one of those "there is a storm in the Gulf" kinda days...

[ConvergenceZone]

Yep, Mexico becoming more likely by the hour.

[KWT]

Keep an eye on the large convective mass situated north and not directly to Alex's present core. Some of the specially colored satellite imagery from late night/early AM shows this Nrn convection as having some banding within it. The activity should link-up with Alex's core during the afternoon. This is likely to be a very large storm with impacts quite far from the center.

- Jay
South Florida

Yeah that would spread some big activity inland, I'd imagine you'd see the northern band spreading some rather large rains into E.TX/LA/MS, as you saud going to be wide ranging.

Depite the size of the circulation, the actual convective burst over the center of the system isn't too large...looking better I think most will agree, its close to the set-up you'd see with a system developing a proper inner core strongly...if this carries on then I'd feel more confident about a category-2 at its peak...

Does anyone have pictures of Dolly at a similar longitude?

[KWT]

By the way this is a very important piece of information from the NHC which people in the path of Alex need to pay attention to:

"THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT THE 34 KT WIND RADII HAVE EXPANDED OVER
ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST. BETWEEN THIS AND THE FASTER
FORWARD MOTION...THERE IS NOW ABOUT 12 HOURS LESS TIME TO MAKE
PREPARATIONS BEFORE THE ONSET OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE
WARNING AREA THAN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST."

[Sanibel]

Storms can be finnicky after crossing over Yucatan. The Gulf is a whole new environment than the Atlantic tropical flow and can involve some airmasses that come from the contintental direction. Especially in June. I have a feeling we are going to see these dry air ingestion fluxes all the way into Laguna (if it stays on this under ridge track). Hard to say. The only thing you can do is see if it steadily increases. I don't think track will change from here.

[KWT]

VERY long post here but I feel this statement has a lot of useful data and information about Alex in there:

TROPICAL STORM ALEX LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
551 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...ALEX SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
KENEDY...COASTAL WILLACY AND COASTAL CAMERON.

A HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...INLAND WILLACY...INLAND CAMERON.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL OF
THE LOWER TEXAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...STARR...HIDALGO.

A TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...ZAPATA...JIM HOGG AND BROOKS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.7N...LONGITUDE 91.9W. THIS WAS ABOUT 450 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TX...OR ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND TX. STORM MOTION WAS NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 8
MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 70 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS MAINTAINING COURSE AND SPEED TOWARD NORTHEAST
MEXICO THIS MORNING. WHEN MAKING DECISIONS THOUGH...DO NOT FOCUS
ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. THE IMMEDIATE FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE
ON STRENGTHENING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS OVER THE MARINE ZONES...
TO INCLUDE COASTAL FLOODING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONG...
INLAND FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
INTO THE GULF TODAY. ALEX SHOULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH AND IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES
THE COAST OF NORTHEAST MEXICO OR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

ALEX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME RELATIVELY LARGE IN SIZE...QUITE A BIT
MORE THAN DOLLY IN 2008. THUS...IMPACTS FROM WIND...RAIN...AND
STORM SURGE MAY IMPACT A FAIRLY LARGE AREA EVEN IF THE CENTER OF
THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY 50 MILES SOUTH OF THE
MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.


.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETION
PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. EVACUATE IF
DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR HOME IS
VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING. FOR INTERESTS AT
PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE PRESCRIBED
PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL PREPARATIONS
FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS. REGARDING ANY
COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT
AND WELL SECURED. FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...CONTINUE WITH YOUR
PREPARATIONS AND LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. CLOSELY MONITOR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM
INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION... PLEASE
REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS
FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE BY AROUND 10 AM CDT. IT WILL PROVIDE IMPORTANT
DETAILS REGARDING THE EVOLVING TROPICAL CYCLONE THREATS AND THEIR
POTENTIAL IMPACTS UPON THE AREA.

TXZ254-255-301100-
/O.EXT.KBRO.HI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100701T1200Z/
INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-
551 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...HURRICANE WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...
AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND CAMERON
AND WILLACY COUNTIES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MAKE THE FINAL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. RUSH TO
COMPLETION THE HARDENING OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS BY CLOSING
SHUTTERS AND BRACING GARAGE DOORS.

IF EVACUATING...LEAVE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. GUARD AGAINST BEING
STUCK OUT ON ROADWAYS WHEN DANGEROUS WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ARRIVE.
AGAIN...DO NOT STAY IN A MOBILE OR MANUFACTURED HOME.
REMEMBER...PETS ARE NOT ALLOWED IN MOST OFFICIAL SHELTERS...SO
CHECK AHEAD WITH YOUR INTENDED SHELTER.

IF STAYING IN A
HOME...TURN THE REFRIGERATOR TO MAXIMUM COLD AND KEEP IT CLOSED.
TURN OFF PROPANE TANKS AND UNPLUG SMALL APPLIANCES. FILL THE
BATHTUB WITH WATER IN CASE THE TAP WATER BECOMES UNAVAILABLE AFTER
THE STORM. THIS IS FOR CLEANING AND FLUSHING PURPOSES. DO NOT
DRINK IT.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS 8 TO 18
PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS
TIME IS UP TO 76 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL UPWARD/STEADY
TREND SINCE THE LAST FORECAST. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL STORM ALEX APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING
WINDS ARE LIKELY. MOST POORLY ANCHORED MOBILE HOMES WILL BE
DAMAGED...SOME SEVERELY. OTHER HOMES MAY HAVE DAMAGE TO
SHINGLES...SIDING...GUTTERS AND WINDOWS...ESPECIALLY IF THESE
ITEMS ARE NOT PROPERLY SECURED. LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS WILL BECOME
AIRBORNE...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURY. SOME
POWER LINES WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN BY FALLING TREES...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. MANY LARGE BRANCHES OF TREES WILL BE
SNAPPED...AND A FEW TREES WILL BE UPROOTED.

...INLAND FLOODING...

SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY WILL BECOME NUMEROUS WEDNESDAY...WITH
SQUALLS LIKELY ARRIVING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT ALEX WILL BE A SLOW MOVING
CYCLONE WHILE MOVING ALONG OR INTO THE NORTHEAST MEXICO OR SOUTH
TEXAS COAST...WHICH WOULD BRING FLOODING RAINS INTO THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. STORM TOTALS COULD RANGE FROM 7 TO 12 INCHES...BUT
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER TOTALS IN EXCESS OF
12 INCHES BEFORE THE SITUATION STARTS TO IMPROVE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

[Comanche]

Will the building ridge keep Houston dry?

[hurricaneCW]

A few hours passed and Alex is looking better, that last burst seemed to have helped it consolidate more. The pressure is steadily decreasing, Alex should be a hurricane later today. Alex will probably steadily intensify until landfall, probably high end cat 1, low end cat 2.

[KWT]

Whats interesting to see is the way the center is starting to really curve and band itself around the center, first time we have seen that rather then just the solid blob look that its had at each previous convective burst.

Gotta think the lowering shear and the increasing heat content will make a difference and help to strengthen the system into a hurricane very soon.

[bahamaswx]

Looked terrible a few hours ago when I woke up. Looks great now.

[cycloneye]

Great structure now.

[KWT]

Got a bit of a comma look to it, that type of structure tends to result in category-1 hurricanes but not much above unless the system changes its presentation a little bit.

Still it does look better, note the banding and curving into the center...and for all the size of the broad circulation, its inner section is quite tight.

[Scorpion]

The warmer TCHP it will be traversing over in the next 12 hours should be able to ramp it up pretty well, at least 10 mb fall I think.