ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Sanibel]

GFDL peaks out at 85KT now.

[CrazyC83]

It has the look of a higher-latitude hurricane...

[hurricaneCW]

How much time until landfall, its current structure along with higher TCHP may yield faster strengthening.

[Thunder44]

Outflow still looks somewhat restricted on west side. Which will probably prevent it from rapdily intensifying today. But deep convection near the center now, should help bring up to 65kt-70kts soon.

[tolakram]

Peak wind 68kts. Not very impressive.

[CrazyC83]

Definitely not a hurricane yet. That data supports 55 kt.

[cwachal]

well what will be interesting to see if Recon says that the eyewall is closed off yet

[thetruesms]

Speaking of structure, microwave image from a pass a couple hours ago

[ConvergenceZone]

Looks like the NHC agrees with me regarding only reaching cat 1 status . It will be a big rain event though.

ALEX SHOULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH AND IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF NORTHEAST MEXICO OR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

[RachelAnna]

Sure is breezy here in Houston today and the cumulus clouds are moving from the ENE at a pretty good clip. It is certainly one of those "there is a storm in the Gulf" kinda days...

Was down at Bryan Beach yesterday in the Freeport area. Have NEVER seen waves like that on the Texas side of the Gulf when all is calm out there. Knew the waves were impressive when my seven year old, after body surfing for 20 minutes, asked me, "Is there a hurricane in the Gulf?!" Maybe she's a future Met?! The question made me proud!

[cwachal]

50% complete eyewall there... I would say it is around 75% complete now

[KWT]

Not even close to being a hurricane based on the recon data, as Crazy said it actually supports a slight downgrade to 55kts....

I don't think the structure is as condusive as people think it is for strengthening, its current presentation tends to be slow to strengthen and tend to not generally get above 75kts, needs a larger area of deep convection and that dry moat to fill in.

[KWT]

Looks like the NHC agrees with me regarding only reaching cat 1 status . It will be a big rain event though.

ALEX SHOULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH AND IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF NORTHEAST MEXICO OR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

IF it keeps its current structure and set-up then a peak probably something around 75-80kts will be likely, if it can shift this pattern with a bigger convective blow up then it has a chance to go higher but I'm thinking maybe I've been going a little high with LF call.

[Macrocane]

Look how much rainfall produced yesterday the southwesterly flow associated with Alex in the Pacific in El Salvador yesterday, the highest amount was 130.2 mm/5.13 inches, near the capital of the country:

[KWT]

Interesting to see a double wind max with this system on the northern side, winds out a good 60-70 miles almost as high as they are in the developing eyewall, thats never a great sign for a developing system...

[CrazyC83]

Unless it loses the banding and develops a solid eyewall, a peak of 65-75 kt seems reasonable. I wouldn't even count out weakening back to a TS before landfall on that.

[americanre1]

Does anyone have maps showing the ridging and how strong they are now and what they should be in the future???

[KWT]

Unless it loses the banding and develops a solid eyewall, a peak of 65-75 kt seems reasonable. I wouldn't even count out weakening back to a TS before landfall on that.

Yeah I agree, its got good convective bursting but the banding is going to allow that dry air that is between the center and the northern convective mass to work its way into the circulation still and limit how strong it could become.

[americanre1]

Was just wondering what is going on with this Northern Convective burst, can it actually be breaking away from the main system, as it appears hear? There seems to be a lot going on inside the Gulf of Mexcio. There are a lot of different scenarios going on that can influence all thats going on.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

americanre1,

That would be the art of meteorology. Look at any of the global models, specifically the GFS, Euro, and NAM. These are the big guys that pro mets go to for a lot of hints.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... arib.shtml

Another easy way to see is via:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/

at

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... zoom=&time

Noting that the microwave imagery above is supporting the earlier recon note of a "partial NE Eyewall"