ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[emeraldislencguy]

why dont the move the recom plane over to earl
guess that is a dumb question??

[SunnyThoughts]

Sure wish we had recon in there

[plasticup]

Cat 4 fo' sho'
With regards to recon, that may not be necessary. We could have land-based observations soon enough

[dizzyfish]

In my completely novice eyes looks like the front and Earl's eye are about equal distance from the coast. Maybe the front just a tad behind.

This is sure gonna be a close one.

Good luck to all!

Anyone know how quickly that front is moving?

[baitism]

Cat 4 fo' sho'
With regards to recon, that may not be necessary. We could have land-based observations soon enough

I am not sure. Organization is good, but the cloud tops aren't particularly cold. I think in about 12 hours when the dry air subsides, Earl will intensify more.

[Just Joshing You]

The further west it goes, the more Nova Scotia gets it.

[hiflyer]

"Anyone know how quickly that front is moving?"

I would suspect that is a prime question at the NHC as they write the 5pm advisory....

Used to like the nogaps model...last couple years not so much...but this last run has it off the beach at Newport News/Norfolk and driving a heck of a wind up the Chesapeake probably creating a surge. Most everyone else still clustered near the NHC track.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[baitism]

The further west it goes, the more Nova Scotia gets it.

The east side of a storm rapidly moving to the NE would be pretty nasty too.

[plasticup]

Cat 4 fo' sho'
With regards to recon, that may not be necessary. We could have land-based observations soon enough

I am not sure. Organization is good, but the cloud tops aren't particularly cold. I think in about 12 hours when the dry air subsides, Earl will intensify more.

It looks better than it did at 2 PM when the NHC gave its 125 mph estimate. Organization, convective activity, dry air expulsion, etc all look a bit better.

[Weatherfreak14]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html


It looks to me that everything is on track (from what NHC) is saying...correct me if im wrong please(I am no prof) but it looks like the front is moving to the East just in time to push Earl out.

Well as a soon to be MET point of view, the trough that is coming east to push it away is really slow and continues to be alot slower than forecasted. This could allow Earl to continue NW and NNW until it reaches the coast. The problem is that the trough is not as deep and is not moving all that fast. I'm here in OK and its gonna take the front 24 hrs to move 200miles. This can be problematic for forecasting earl.

[plasticup]

The further west it goes, the more Nova Scotia gets it.

Yep, someone is gonna get walloped.

[capepoint]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html


It looks to me that everything is on track (from what NHC) is saying...correct me if im wrong please(I am no prof) but it looks like the front is moving to the East just in time to push Earl out.

Well as a soon to be MET point of view, the trough that is coming east to push it away is really slow and continues to be alot slower than forecasted. This could allow Earl to continue NW and NNW until it reaches the coast. The problem is that the trough is not as deep and is not moving all that fast. I'm here in OK and its gonna take the front 24 hrs to move 200miles. This can be problematic for forecasting earl.

One of our better local mets was pointing this out last night. He was stressing the NHC track, but said he was seriously concerned that the forcast models on which that track was based were not correctly reading how slowly the front was moving.
Looking at some of the outlying clouds to the NNW of Earl, I dont see where any appear to be bumping into anything yet.
The speed of the front is very critical to NC. Every minute that earl does not turn brings it closer to landfall. The line between a brush and a landfall for the OBX is so paper thin right now it's silly.

[HurrMark]

I suspect the 5 PM will be pretty much the same as 11 AM...just a hunch. Nothing really has swayed me one way or another...everything is right on track...

[Just Joshing You]

More and more as the day goes by it looks like Nova Scotia will get its ass hammered.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

The further west it goes, the more Nova Scotia gets it.

The further west it goes the more New Brunswick & Maine get it. If it goes far enough west you guys will actually be helped, but areas further west will be under the gun instead, it is lose lose imo.

[TropicalWXMA]

131
WTNT22 KNHC 012051
TCMAT2
HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
2100 UTC WED SEP 01 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING
DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH
OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO
WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND
SOUND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH
TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER
MASSACHUSETTS.

[HurrMark]

Back to cat 4...watches now up to Mass...

[plasticup]

Cat 4 fo' sho'

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR

*fist pump*

You are so weird

[pimentel2]

5PM Advisory is out!



And...oh noez.....Tropical Storm Watch for my area

[RL3AO]

THE HURRICANE IS ABOUT TO REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE

Sound familiar to anyone else?