ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[tolakram]

[Ntxwx]

do you guys think that there is no chance of alex making landfall in corpus?

Definatly still possible. And even if there isn't a direct hit on the Port Aransas/Corpus Christi area they could still get a good 12"+ of rain. Though Looks like landfall will be Brownsville IMO.

[RainWind]

do you guys think that there is no chance of alex making landfall in corpus?

Looking doubtful as of now, HOWEVER, just stay tuned and keep watching and listen to your local weather for alerts, warnings and advisories. You just never know with these storms, you are doing the right thing by staying on top of what is going on.

[HURAKAN]

Wilma:

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...15.7 N... 80.0 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...982 MB.

Alex and Wilma surely enjoyed lower-than-normal pressures for their intensities. Of course, Alex not expected to be Wilma

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track mantains intensity at 60kts.

AL, 01, 2010062918, , BEST, 0, 230N, 936W, 60, 981, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[dixiebreeze]

29/1745 UTC 23.0N 93.6W T4.0/4.0 ALEX -- Atlantic

[cycloneye]

29/1745 UTC 23.0N 93.6W T4.0/4.0 ALEX -- Atlantic

Those are hurricane T numbers at 65kts.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

band of rain here in Nacogdoches coming through now

[Sanibel]

SST's are driving a steady strengthening despite marginal dry air mixing conditions. The infra-red structure indicates slow eyewall formation. Most likely steady increase to category two at landfall.

[Aric Dunn]

once that area of convection wraps all the way around.. its game on..

What exactly do you mean by "game on"? It appears that any intensification will be modest.

lol sorry ... its a leader, typically when you see convection in a small near area the center maintaining and wrapping around the center its a sign of increasing organization. you see this happen when there is dry air near the system. So when it is able to wrap completely around it effectively cuts of some on the dry air intrusion allowing the core to expand. as with all systems nothing is for sure but thats what appears to be occurring atm. so game on just means in this case that a hurricane is likely and with the decreasing shear and warm waters some faster intensification is possible with CAT 2 possible..

[tolakram]

from the GOES site: http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goeseast-lzw/



I would say the eye wall is almost complete based on my amateur view of the cloud tops.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Aric Dunn]

also the nearly stationary motion is also a sign. as the convection wraps around the center you must conserve some angular momentum.

[RachelAnna]

band of rain here in Nacogdoches coming through now

I'll be interested to see, now that it looks like we truly have a more concrete idea of where Alex will go, how much rain the Houston area will get. We need the rain, we all just know how badly H-Town floods. Any guess how much rain Houston will get?

[americanre1]

also the nearly stationary motion is also a sign. as the convection wraps around the center you must conserve some angular momentum.

So are you saying its stalling out again???

[JonathanBelles]

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2 ... tour04.png

For some reason nothing will let me upload this, but the link should work. It is the most recent wind field.

[Aric Dunn]

also the nearly stationary motion is also a sign. as the convection wraps around the center you must conserve some angular momentum.

So are you saying its stalling out again???

ooppss.. forgot the word "apparent"... as the convection wraps around it should appear to slow down but its actual motion is unchanged.... sorry

[Scorpion]

Finally starting to wrap up. Should be interesting this evening.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

band of rain here in Nacogdoches coming through now

I'll be interested to see, now that it looks like we truly have a more concrete idea of where Alex will go, how much rain the Houston area will get. We need the rain, we all just know how badly H-Town floods. Any guess how much rain Houston will get?

Yeah im interested also since home is in sugar land for me. I think we can expect a few inches of rain from afternoon thunderstorms swinging in

[RachelAnna]

band of rain here in Nacogdoches coming through now

I'll be interested to see, now that it looks like we truly have a more concrete idea of where Alex will go, how much rain the Houston area will get. We need the rain, we all just know how badly H-Town floods. Any guess how much rain Houston will get?

Yeah im interested also since home is in sugar land for me. I think we can expect a few inches of rain from afternoon thunderstorms swinging in

I'm in NW Houston and it already looks like rain is on the way, although it's hard to tell how much of this is Alex induced and how much we would have gotten anyway. We need the rain, just don't want too much at one time!