ARABIAN SEA - DEEP DEPRESSION (03A)

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[soul2006]

today


last night

[HURAKAN]

WTIO31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (PHET) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (PHET) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 23.5N 59.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.5N 59.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 23.7N 60.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 23.9N 62.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 24.3N 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 25.1N 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 27.6N 71.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 23.6N 60.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM WEST
OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. DESPITE THE LOSS OF THE
MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, THE LLCC REMAINS STRONG WITH
TIGHTLY-CURVED SHALLOW BANDING AND A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE EVIDENT
IN A 041503Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS
UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE LATEST POSITION AND MOTION BASED ON THE EXPOSED
LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
THE PGTW FINAL T (55 KNOTS) AND THE CI (65 KNOTS). TC 03A HAS
FINALLY CRESTED THE STR AXIS AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD
AS IT ENTERS THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. TC 03A IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 36 DUE TO GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFF-
SETTING THE MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). BY TAU 48,
THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER VERY STRONG VWS AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR
KARACHI. TC 03A IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 72. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Oman killed Phet's entrails

[HURAKAN]

Nice pic

[Chacor]

Amazingly, IMD has Phet stronger than JTWC does now. JTWC has Phet down to 45 kt (which seems about right); IMD is holding at 55 kt.

[HURAKAN]

Looks very weak

[HURAKAN]

WTIO31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (PHET) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (PHET) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 23.9N 60.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.9N 60.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 24.1N 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 24.4N 63.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 24.9N 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 26.2N 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 24.0N 60.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
WEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 65 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A 042157Z
AMSR-E 36V GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A WEAKENING LLCC WITH MULTIPLE SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AXIS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THERE
IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE LATEST POSITION AND MOTION BASED ON THE
EXPOSED LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW
CI (45 KNOTS). TC 03A HAS FINALLY CRESTED THE STR AXIS AND IS
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD AS IT ENTERS THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW. TC 03A IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND WILL DISSIPATE AFTER MAKING LANDFALL NEAR KARACHI. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.
//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

WTIO31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (PHET) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (PHET) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 23.8N 61.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 61.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 23.9N 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 24.1N 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 24.9N 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 26.2N 70.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 23.8N 61.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
WEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION SHEARED 52 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 03A IS LOCATED POLEWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). TC PHET IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. DUE TO THE HIGH VWS,
TC 03A IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY TAU 24, BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR KARACHI. THIS
FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.//
NNNN

[Chacor]

Down to a 40 kt Cyclonic Storm from IMD. IMD forecasting landfall between 0300 and 0600Z.

TROPICAL STORM ‘PHET’ ADVISORY NO. THIRTY THREE ISSUED AT 1200 UTC OF 05 JUNE 2010 BASED ON 0900 UTC OF 05 JUNE 2010.



THE CYCLONIC STORM, “PHET” OVER NORTHWEST ARABIAN SEA OFF MAKARAN COAST REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTRED AT 0900 UTC OF TODAY, THE 5TH JUNE 2010 NEAR LAT. 24.50N AND LONG. 61.00E, ABOUT 120 KM SOUTHWEST OF JIWANI (PAKISTAN), 600 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI (PAKISTAN), 300 KM NORTHEAST OF SUR (OMAN) AND 800 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NALIYA (KUTCH, GUJARAT).

SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 40 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 996 HPA.

THE NEAREST SHIP LOCATED AT LAT. 24.70N AND LONG. 60.90E REPORTED MSLP OF 996 HPA AND WIND 060/35 KNOTS AT 0900 UTC. JIWANI (42756) OF PAKISTAN REPORTED MSLP OF 1000.0 WITH 24 HRS PRESSURE FALL OF 6.1 HPA AND EASTERLY WIND OF 30 KNOTS



SATELLITE IMAGERIES SHOW BROKEN INTENSE CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST PAKISTAN ADJOINING IRAN AND ARABIAN SEA NORTH OF LAT. 21.50N AND WEST OF LONG.63.50E. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE DUE TO CONVECTION IS -500 C IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.



VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS MODERATE TO HIGH AS THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM LIES TO NORTH OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 23.00 N OVER THE REGION. .



THE SYSTEM WOULD WEAKEN FURTHER AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS PAKISTAN COAST NEAR 64.0ºE BETWEEN 0300 AND 0600 UTC OF TOMORROW, THE 06 JUNE 2010.



GALE FORCE WIND SPEED REACHING 65-75 KMPH GUSTING TO 85 KMPH WOULD OCCUR ALONG AND OFF MAKARAN COAST DURING NEXT 12 HRS AND REDUCE TO 55-65 KMPH THEREAFTER. SEA CONDITION WILL BE HIGH ALONG AND OFF THIS COAST DURING NEXT 12 HOURS AND VERY ROUGH THEREAFTER.

STORM SURGE GUIDANCE: STORM SURGE OF ABOUT 1-2 METERS ABOVE THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WOULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIME OF LANDFALL.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Chacor]

As of 1800z, Phet is a deep depression.

[salmon123]

Heavy rains in Pakistan coastal areas

[HURAKAN]

WTIO31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (PHET) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (PHET) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 24.6N 67.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6N 67.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 25.9N 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 24.9N 68.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 20 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. PHET HAS MADE LANDFALL SOUTH OF
KARACHI. A 1211Z METAR REPORT FROM KARACHI/JINNAH AIRPORT (OPKC)
PUTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT 30 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
THIS DIRECTION IMPLIES A POSITION EAST OF KARACHI. BETWEEN 1200Z AND
1300Z THE WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE NORTH AND HAVE EASED TO NEAR 25
KNOTS. THIS ALSO CONFIRMS THAT THE SYSTEM IS PAST KARACHI (OR TO THE
EAST OF 67.2E) AND IS WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER
SOUTHERN PAKISTAN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Over Pakistan

[HURAKAN]

Final track

[KWT]

Not a bad track in terms of length for this area of the world, I think we got somewhat lucky with the system weakening before Oman landfall but still a huge hit for that area of the basin.

[Aquawind]

Seven people were electrocuted during heavy storms that hit the port city of Karachi after Cyclone Phet battered parts of southern Pakistan on Sunday, a provincial health chief told CNN.

Phet lashed Pakistan's southwestern coast early Sunday as it approached landfall. The Pakistani navy dispatched helicopters throughout the weekend to alert fishermen near Karachi and parts of Balochistan of the cyclone.

About 1,000 people were rescued from Gwadar by Pakistani authorities and taken to a navy shelter on Saturday. Dr. Sagheer Ahmed, health minister of Sindh province, had no other details on the electrocutions.

http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/0 ... tml?hpt=T2

[WhatsTheDeal]

That is ridiculous. Your first post and such an antagonistic bashing? This storm is not "right on top of Oman", at least not yet.

24 cyclone deaths in Oman and the number is expected to rise. I think it was irresponsible to keep reporting and spreading information that the cyclone's target was India when it was obviously set to hit Oman and cause the most damage there.