WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONSON

KWT · #361 Postby **KWT** » Fri Jul 16, 2010 5:38 am

Still looking good at the moment, Conson still has some very deep convection though coverage isn't quite as extreme as it was before...

Chacor · #362 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Jul 16, 2010 5:49 am

Code: Select all

YEAR   1ST TY (##)   2ND TY (##)   TOTAL TY/BY JUL 16
2010   JUL 16 (02)
2009   MAY 04 (01)   MAY 06 (02)   13/2 (MOLAVE 3RD TY ON JUL 17)
2008   APR 16 (01)   MAY 09 (02)   11/4 (KALMAEGI 5TH TY ON JUL 17)
2007   APR 03 (01)   MAY 18 (02)   14/3
2006   MAY 13 (01)   JUL 03 (03)   15/2
2005   APR 23 (03)   JUN 01 (04)   13/3
2004   APR 07 (01)   MAY 15 (02)   19/6
2003   APR 14 (02)   MAY 23 (03)   14/3 (IMBUDO 4TH TY ON JUL 19)
2002   MAR 02 (02)   MAY 18 (03)   15/6
2001   JUN 22 (02)   JUL 25 (06)   16/1
2000   MAY 08 (01)   JUL 03 (03)   13/3
1999   APR 30 (02)   JUN 04 (03)    5/2
1998   AUG 04 (02)   AUG 26 (04)    7/0
1997   APR 16 (01)   MAY 31 (05)   17/5
1996   MAY 13 (03)   JUL 08 (05)   15/3

Latest formation of a first typhoon since 1998 (August 4); previous latest was 2001 (June 22).
Since 1990, only two years have had years in which the first typhoon formed later than today: 1998, and 1995 (July 22).

KWT · #363 Postby **KWT** » Fri Jul 16, 2010 6:25 am

Interestingly both ended up having very high ACE in the Atlantic and both were La Nina's, though 1998 was far more potent then 1995.

Conson still looks good, I'd say 70kts myself.

Infdidoll · #364 Postby **Infdidoll** » Fri Jul 16, 2010 6:57 am

Chacor wrote:Neither of those look particularly like anything yet at the moment though. In a moment I'll have a look at typhoon formation dates...

Cool! Yeah, I usually don't like posting anything on the board until it's been on NRL for a bit and NOAA also adds it to their site. Then it usually seems like it's worth talking about. 96W didn't last a day.

#365 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jul 16, 2010 7:09 am

Landfall

KWT · #366 Postby **KWT** » Fri Jul 16, 2010 7:10 am

Most of the invests in the WPAC this season have been very unimpressive it has to be said, I think it shows by how little has actually formed since the start of the year.

Hurakan, you can still see how lopsided the system is, the southern section looks cracking, the northern...well not nearly as impressive!

wyq614 · #367 Postby **wyq614** » Fri Jul 16, 2010 7:11 am

ZCZC
WHCI40 BABJ 161200
TY 1002 (1002) CONSON LANDED ON SANYA HAINAN
161150 GMT(35m/s)=
NNNN

CMA official landfall announcement

Chacor · #368 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Jul 16, 2010 7:16 am

Down to T4.0 from JMA.

wyq614 · #369 Postby **wyq614** » Fri Jul 16, 2010 7:25 am

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 161200
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY CONSON 1002 (1002) INITIAL TIME 161200 UTC
00HR 18.2N 109.6E 968HPA 35M/S
30KTS 250KM
50KTS 60KM
P12HR WNW 15KM/H=
NNNN

Chacor · #370 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Jul 16, 2010 7:28 am

Hey wyq, what is Conson's Chinese name?

wyq614 · #371 Postby **wyq614** » Fri Jul 16, 2010 7:29 am

Chacor wrote:Hey wyq, what is Conson's Chinese name?

康森（kang sen）

KWT · #372 Postby **KWT** » Fri Jul 16, 2010 7:33 am

Chacor wrote:Down to T4.0 from JMA.

Makes sense given the eye has come open and the northern side has weakened probably thanks to the duo of light shear and land.

wyq614 · #373 Postby **wyq614** » Fri Jul 16, 2010 7:41 am

There are mountains in the middle of Hainan Islands, it may deteriorate the structure of Conson.

KWT · #374 Postby **KWT** » Fri Jul 16, 2010 7:42 am

I think it really depends alot on the track of Conson, I'd imagine the track should help the system to avoid the worst of the high terrain inland.

Chacor · #375 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Jul 16, 2010 8:11 am

JMA ups intensity to 70 knots.

WTPQ20 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1002 CONSON (1002)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 17.9N 109.4E FAIR
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 171200UTC 19.8N 106.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 181200UTC 22.0N 104.3E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

wyq614 · #376 Postby **wyq614** » Fri Jul 16, 2010 8:13 am

KWT wrote:I think it really depends alot on the track of Conson, I'd imagine the track should help the system to avoid the worst of the high terrain inland.

Mountains can be seen right in the north of the city of Sanya...

#377 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Fri Jul 16, 2010 8:39 am

Well the eye brushed Sanya and the 2nd passage of the eyewall is far more potent, which is to be expected since the winds are now howling off the South China Sea. Lowest pressure I recorded was 974.5hPa.

I'm going live with The Weather Channel (US) in about ten minutes....

KWT · #378 Postby **KWT** » Fri Jul 16, 2010 8:45 am

TH are you filming its movement by any chance...The WPAC always gives people a chance to chase even in the slowest of seasons.

#379 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Fri Jul 16, 2010 9:06 am

Lol probably the quickest interview I've ever done!

KWT wrote:TH are you filming its movement by any chance...The WPAC always gives people a chance to chase even in the slowest of seasons.

When you say its movement, you mean radar loop etc on my laptop? I've got a few shots of that but I'm primarily here covering for news agencies.

I'll be adding video onto Youtube tomorrow when I get back to Hong Kong. Can't upload in mainland China since it's banned.

My footage should be airing on The Weather Channel within the hour.

KWT · #380 Postby **KWT** » Fri Jul 16, 2010 10:02 am

Ah thats good to hear, sorry I'm not sure why I said movement thats totally not what I was thinking lol!

However you answered my thoughts anyway by saying your going to upload footage so thats cool.

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