ATL: EX Tropical Depression FIVE - Models

[wxman57]

18Z models just in, they shifted eastward a bit.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks to me that the 12z GFS 500mb vorticity sends the vort from 94L into MS/AL border area.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[KFDM Meteorologist]

where did the Euro show landfall last run?

Same general area SE LA.

[Dean4Storms]

[PTrackerLA]

Anyone have the 12z GFDL?

[Ivanhater]

Anyone have the 12z GFDL?

[Ivanhater]

Models seeing a distinct weakness

[ROCK]

Models seeing a distinct weakness

yes but further west than before...

[srainhoutx]

HPC Final Extended Disco...snip...

ALSO ADDED A STAMPED L AS PER
COORDINATION WITH TPC FOR THE TROPICAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO LIFT
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST DAY 3...WITH A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD
DRIFT AS IT SHEARS APART THEREAFTER. THE 12Z GEFS MEAN IS QUITE
CLOSE TO THE 00Z ECENS MEAN USED AS THE BACKGROUND FOR THIS
FORECAST...ADDING A MORE ROBUST VOTE OF CONFIDENCE THAN ANY ONE
DETERMINISTIC MODEL WOULD ALONE.

[N2FSU]

NorthEASTWARD drift? Huh?

[srainhoutx]

NorthEASTWARD drift? Huh?

After it moves inland.

[N2FSU]

Thanks! The models certainly show that, but their wording was a little strange.

[Dean4Storms]

The actual landfall will all depend on where that weakness sets up and prolly the depth of the system, timing will also be a key.

[HurrMark]

Thanks! The models certainly show that, but their wording was a little strange.

Keep in mind that for flash flood/rainfall purposes, the HPC tracks the remnant lows of TC's for days after landfall...until the low is no longer discernable and/or is absorbed into another system. In fact, the advisories look similar in many ways to NHC advisories (advisory numbers continue from the last advisory number issued from the NHC, coordinates, intensity, direction/speed of motion, pressure are all provided)

[Wx_Warrior]

Need a little help....Looking closer @ EURO @ 500, there is no trof.....?

[HouTXmetro]

Need a little help....Looking closer @ EURO @ 500, there is no trof.....?

UNEDUCATED GUESS.....just the system find a weakness between teh Highs trough or no trough?

[Wx_Warrior]

Most of the models are showing a slow down near the coast, I guess bumping into ridge.

[MWatkins]

WX...best avatar photo ever.

The feature the 12Z Euro shows is a mid-level low that doesn't even reflect at 850MB...

And with the public resolution it's imposible for me to figure out the physics...but maybe someone who subscribes could analyize it.

My guess is it doesn't develop it much...but the deterministic forecast is in line with the other models...

MW

[Ivanhater]

Most of the models are showing a slow down near the coast, I guess bumping into ridge.

The models were showing a split in the Ridge as a shortwave passes to the north leaving a weakness, not necessarily a strong trough digging in.

[Wx_Warrior]

Thanks Mwat!!!

Thanks Ivan...Best guess from me will be a weak TS that is very broad. 1007 mb right now. Pretty weak.