ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[ConvergenceZone]

Looks like just a rain event for Texas based on that track Brent

[Ikester]

I'll tell ya what though, right or wrong and regardless of models, I've never seen a cone stay as constant as this one has.

[cycloneye]

Track more south.

[Ikester]

Big victory for the NHC. Hell of a forecast challenge this was. They put a cone out there and stuck with it. Issued warnings and stuck with it. Where is Alex going? Exactly where they had been showing all along. I still think they had some cahoona's and put their reputation on the line for such an inconsistent forecast. That's beside the point now.

[thetruesms]

looks to me that an eye appears to be appearing http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I see no eye feature - it looks more to me like a system that's trying to deal with some dry air.

[Brent]

THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT
IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE NEXT AIRCRAFT MISSION NEAR 0000 UTC WILL
FIND THAT ALEX IS A HURRICANE.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[ConvergenceZone]

Not much else going on in the Atlantic, so I have a feeling Alex will be the last and then the tropics will take a break. I have a feeling everything will start popping big in August.

[cycloneye]

From 4 PM CDT discussion.

IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE NEXT AIRCRAFT MISSION NEAR 0000 UTC WILL
FIND THAT ALEX IS A HURRICANE.

[clfenwi]

Alex as viewed using Goes IR Channel 8 imagery



Yes, I'm hungry, why do you ask?

[jaxfladude]

Mex/Tex border area will get something out of Alex, that is for sure.
Hopefully the least amount of wind and rain possible, all things considered.
Stay safe y'all.
Just a reminder for all that the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season is underway.

[HurricaneBelle]

Alex as viewed using Goes IR Channel 8 imagery



Yes, I'm hungry, why do you ask?

I've updated your post with some microwave imagery:

[MGC]

Alex almost looks like a polar low. With all the dry air being injested Alex will likely only reach min hurricane intensity. Yep, NHC put it on the table and they were correct. Great forecast by the NHC. Euro had it right also.....MGC

[JonathanBelles]

When looking at landfall, please disolve the Texas/Mexico border from your mind. Effects will be nearly the same whether you are north or south of the border. Effects (rain, surge, ect) will be felt very widespread from this system, likely from the mouth of the Mississippi River all the way back to the Yucatan. What looks to be a large (and expanding) Central Dense Overcast will be effecting a large area.

[StormClouds63]

Not much else going on in the Atlantic, so I have a feeling Alex will be the last and then the tropics will take a break. I have a feeling everything will start popping big in August.

I'm guessing mid-to-late July for Bonnie. FWIW, I think the big storm of the season will be Danielle (August).

Back to Alex. Looks like the track is even a little south of due west. Better news for Texas, though rainfall will be abundant.

[tolakram]

[Bocadude85]

Not much else going on in the Atlantic, so I have a feeling Alex will be the last and then the tropics will take a break. I have a feeling everything will start popping big in August.

IMHO I think we will have Bonnie before July is over.

[lebron23]

Question will my area just southwest of Houston receive a lot of rain? if so how many inches can i expect?

[Sanibel]

This is cool. I don't think I've ever seen a pinwheel cyclone like this.


GFDL nailed the low intensity. That's very contrary to GFDL's usual.


Could be slightly left of track even.

[CrazyC83]

It actually looks more like a storm trying to become extratropical...