ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[NEXRAD]

Yeah it will pretty likely be upgraded, but I think NHC may just hold on and wait for certain given recon is going to go through the NE quadrant in the next hour...but yeah it is going to be a hurricane...

Jay, how strong do you think this could get in the 12-15hrs its got offshore still?

The short answer is I'm still moderately confident in my morning intensity forecast assessment, taking Alex to the 85 to 100 knot range for final landfall. Granted, the higher end of that is looking less likely tonight. The storm failed to strengthen as much as I had anticipated.

That said, Alex has reasonable outflow and very good (if not great) upper level divergence. The upper level conditions should improve overnight, too, as upper level ridging edges Sward over top the storm. Depending on where this upper level ridge sets up, Alex could end-up with an excellent outflow pattern. With the latest recon aircraft reported pressures and the very tight core I see on IR, IRWV, and 85GHz imagery, I think Alex has the potential to quickly strengthen at any time. I'd therefore set a conservative expectation of 5-knot intensification per 6-hours over water from here on out. A couple of quick 10-knot+ jumps in intensity wouldn't surprise me at all, though.

Note: this information is not official per the NHC/NWS and should not be used for decision making.

- Jay
South Florida

[txagwxman]

Yeah it will pretty likely be upgraded, but I think NHC may just hold on and wait for certain given recon is going to go through the NE quadrant in the next hour...but yeah it is going to be a hurricane...

Jay, how strong do you think this could get in the 12-15hrs its got offshore still?

The short answer is I'm still moderately confident in my morning intensity forecast assessment, taking Alex to the 85 to 100 knot range for final landfall. Granted, the higher end of that is looking less likely tonight. The storm failed to strengthen as much as I had anticipated.

That said, Alex has reasonable outflow and very good (if not great) upper level divergence. The upper level conditions should improve overnight, too, as upper level ridging edges Sward over top the storm. Depending on where this upper level ridge sets up, Alex could end-up with an excellent outflow pattern. With the latest recon aircraft reported pressures and the very tight core I see on IR, IRWV, and 85GHz imagery, I think Alex has the potential to quickly strengthen at any time. I'd therefore set a conservative expectation of 5-knot intensification per 6-hours over water from here on out. A couple of quick 10-knot+ jumps in intensity wouldn't surprise me at all, though.

Note: this information is not official per the NHC/NWS and should not be used for decision making.

- Jay
South Florida

It has fantastic outflow...outflow goes clear to Jamaica...yet it isn't strengthening rapidly because the inner core is fighting a slight headwind and there is some low mixing ratio air embedded in the core.

[gatorcane]

NEXRAD, we also should note that the HWRF/GFDL have done a pretty good job on intensity. Recall that even prior to Alex leaving the Yucatan those models did not forecast alot of intensification over the BOC, despite the surprise of the NHC that they were not. Indeed looks like those models may nail the intensity on this, granted they have increased their intensity forecast some since a few days ago. At one point the NHC was mentioning MAJOR hurricane possibilities in their discussions.

To be honest, at one point I thought Alex could read CAT 2 or CAT 3 strength so I am a bit surprised it has not intensified more than it has, given its time over water, however, seemed the models sniffed out something that would prevent that kind of intensity.

[NEXRAD]

Txagwxman - I've never made much use of mixing ratio data or outputs. My background is originally in severe local storms with some secondary focus on Nor'easters. I take a decidedly convective and large-scale approach to how I perceive tropical cyclones. I'd not mind learning a new thing or two, though.

Gatorcane - I've been watching the GFDL and HWRF. Early on, though, these models dissipated Alex even while it was developing over the NW Caribbean. I'm going on satellite imagery for what I'm seeing with Alex at present. In some ways 2004's Frances looked worse offshore Florida when that hurricane was ingesting plenty of dry air. Of course, there's a difference between a weakening major hurricane and a developing tropical cyclone.

- Jay
South Florida

[KWT]

Worth noting Gatorcane the 18z GFDL does go to 100kts now...

I'd be surprised if it got to 100kts now but I do think the lower end is more than do able, esp given the development of the inner core over the past 4hrs or so, much improved IMO.

Recon leaving Alex from the sounds of things, which is a shame...

[NEXRAD]

KWT - Alex intensifying to 100kt would surprise me some. I still can see this system reaching somewhere in the 80 to 90 knot range, though, provided that intensification is presently underway. If Alex is still 60 knots come 5AM tomorrow, though, then it really won't have that much long to get things together.

- Jay
South Florida

[johngaltfla]

Worth noting Gatorcane the 18z GFDL does go to 100kts now...

I'd be surprised if it got to 100kts now but I do think the lower end is more than do able, esp given the development of the inner core over the past 4hrs or so, much improved IMO.

Recon leaving Alex from the sounds of things, which is a shame...

I wonder if there was an equipment failure. It does look like a cane but now I wonder if they will just upgrade it at 2200 CDT. What a way to start the season though, June hurricanes are a rarity. Let's hope it hits the relatively unpopulated areas and does not jog too far NW as it moves towards Mexico over the next 24 hours.

[South Texas Storms]

did alex stall?

[xcool22]

i think so..

[South Texas Storms]

when is the texas radar going to fill in with all of alex's tropical downpours?

[RachelAnna]

when is the texas radar going to fill in with all of alex's tropical downpours?

I was just thinking the same thing! Are we just not going to get the rain that was expected or are the radars just not filling in yet? What's the deal?

[hurricanefloyd5]

it's offiical hurricane Alex at 11pm adv.

[CrazyC83]

8 mile wide pinhole eye = rapid deepening?

[weatherguy425]

Well the radar has actually been extrememly active all day

Buutt, the real rain will be here once we get closer to being on the eastern side of the cirulation, that's when the flow off the gulf will really kick on.

[vacanechaser]

it's offiical hurricane Alex at 11pm adv.

yep... just herd it on twc... confirmed by nhc... 11pm..



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[South Texas Storms]

Well the radar has actually been extrememly active all day

Buutt, the real rain will be here once we get closer to being on the eastern side of the cirulation, that's when the flow off the gulf will really kick on.

so are we still expecting to have flooding rains from austin to the coast?

[cycloneye]

But the titles of the threads wont change until is official at 10 PM CDT.

[ozonepete]

Hey wxman57, Do you see a lot more strengthening?

[vacanechaser]

But the titles of the threads wont change until is official at 10 PM CDT.

of course... just thought i would pass on the info... twc had breaking news!!!




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[HURAKAN]

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