ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Florida1118]

Does it seem to be moving more in a northerly fashion to anyone?

[Blown Away]

Blown Away, to clarify,South of Barahona, DR. Cabo Rojo is a town in the SW corner of Puerto Rico.

I had to make sure I wasn't totally going crazy, I guess there is a Cabo Rojo DR & PR, at least per Google. I'd like to visit both places one day!

[cycloneye]

No 18z Best Track position yet. They may be trying to pinpoint a circulation to then continue to track it.

[cycloneye]

Blown Away, to clarify,South of Barahona, DR. Cabo Rojo is a town in the SW corner of Puerto Rico.

I had to make sure I wasn't totally going crazy, I guess there is a Cabo Rojo DR & PR, at least per Google. I'd like to visit both places one day!

First time I know there is a Cabo Rojo there.

[Sanibel]

Looks like a blown-open wave being ground down into a synoptic border to the NW.

[KWT]

Yeah Frank there is clearly a MLC with this system, though I'm not convinced now that'll be what develops.

As for that LLC idea tolakram, its certainly a tough call, because of the constant developing and decaying of convection its difficult to know whether thats the case, but there is the illusion of a circulation at the very least.

[vbhoutex]

Turning visible near 16.8N 71.5W:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

If my untrained eyes are not fooling me that appears to be a MLC. I am still not seeing any turning at the lower levels. In fact, and I could be wrong, it looks almost like some outflow boundaries working Nward into the system. What they would be coming from is the question I would have though if they are outflow boundaries. To say the least outflow boundaries coming into the attempting to organize system would be quite disruptive I would think. Those that know more than I do feel free to correct me if I am wrong.

[Sanibel]

The visible Floater loop shows a more energetic MLC curling today, which can only mean one thing - Formation. However it might not have time before crashing on the islands. I'd say it's slightly east right now.

[HURAKAN]

18z

AL, 93, 2010062218, , BEST, 0, 155N, 744W, 25, 1010, WV

[x-y-no]

18z

AL, 93, 2010062218, , BEST, 0, 155N, 744W, 25, 1010, WV

74.4W? Really?

Huh. Shows what I know ...

[KWT]

Looks like the NHC are still not paying attention to the MLC and instead watching tolakram's LLC feature from the looks of things. (look at the previous page, there is at least an illusion of a circulation there...

The MLC will probably follow the jet streak as it slowly continues to lift northwards and follow the developing convection, thus will probably head towards Haiti, which raises concerns for flooding.

[Florida1118]

So, Is it going to Haiti and turning north, or is it staying south?

[tolakram]

I agree those are outflow boundaries from storms well south of this system. Unfortunately they also give the appearance of banding where none exists, making it even harder to see what's going on.

[Frank2]

Hi vbhoutex,

If my untrained eyes are not fooling me that appears to be a MLC. I am still not seeing any turning at the lower levels.

True and that's why I only said turning without giving a guess as to what is turning, since a generic answer is less prone to embarrassment on my part (lol)...

Frank

[x-y-no]

Looks like the NHC are still not paying attention to the MLC and instead watching tolakram's LLC feature from the looks of things. (look at the previous page, there is at least an illusion of a circulation there...

Well if that's where the surface wave feature is, I understand them dropping the development probability way down

[HURAKAN]

18z

AL, 93, 2010062218, , BEST, 0, 155N, 744W, 25, 1010, WV

74.4W? Really?

Huh. Shows what I know ...

[Blown Away]

The vorticy is clear at the 18z position of 15.5N/74.4W, but it is pretty much void of convection and is moving IMO due W. The mid level circulation with the convection just S of DR IMO is moving NW towards Haiti.

[Ntxwx]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/1kmsrvis_loop.asp?storm_identifier=AL932010&starting_image=2010AL93_1KMSRVIS_201006211315.GIF

Looking at that loop, which is SW of the apparent MLC, it appears an LLC is developing. Not very many frames to judge, so it could very well be an illusion, but convection seems to be starting to fire around this area.

I believe your right.

[KWT]

Probably will have a much better chance once it clears the convective mass with MLC as its probably where the main convergence/divergence is right now and that can't help any surface feature.

[Frank2]

Yes, 74.4W makes sense per the wave axis - but a long way from the 71.5W turning...

Frank