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My prediction: South East Florida for first hit by a high Cat 1. Storm will be heading NW and then bend back to WNW or W to impact near Miami area late Fri. Then will traverse the state, heading more NW again, emerging around Punta Gorda and into going into the Gulf. Once in the Gulf, it will return to a more WNW path for a day and then return to a NW path and NNW path to impact MS/AL line in Northern Gulf on late Mon/early Tuesday as a strong Cat 2. Upon landfall, the storm will then be going more NW again
I base this on a weakening of the Bermuda High on its southwestern periphery over the next 3-4 days, before rebuilding west again as far west as Mississippi across the far northern gulf by Tuesday. The approaching trough over the middle of the country during this timeframe will stay too far north to impact the future Bonnie's direction at all while the storm is over the gulf waters.
just my take. probably way off htis early out, as the models could very well change the strength or speed of the breaking down and rebuilding ridge by then.
fits quite well
