ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[blp]

Looks like the next image will come around 0615utc according to the below schedule.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/GOES/FL10-FD.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/eclipse.html

[supercane]

Anybody know when the eclipse is over. It always happens just when you have a developing system. Thanks

It lasts for a couple of hours, from 4:15z to 6:15z. That is what I know. If there is something different,someone chim in.

GOES-13 does not have down time due to eclipse, but we do lose some images due to the stray light exclusion zone. Here's the latest image from 0445Z:


Link to schedule page: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/eclipse.html

And link to discussion about eclipse:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=108929

[blp]

Anybody know when the eclipse is over. It always happens just when you have a developing system. Thanks

It lasts for a couple of hours, from 4:15z to 6:15z. That is what I know. If there is something different,someone chim in.

GOES-13 does not have down time due to eclipse, but we do lose some images due to the stray light exclusion zone. Here's the latest image from 0445Z:


Link to schedule page: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/eclipse.html

And link to discussion about eclipse:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=108929

Thanks guys I will use the CSU site.

[Vortex]

with every hour organization is improving....very large system.....shld look great on the vis tomorrow

[Florida1118]

I guess not too confident in him at this time. I thought for sure we would have 80%+
---
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA DURING
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

[Brent]

I guess not too confident in him at this time. I thought for sure we would have 80%+
---
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA DURING
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

Yeah, same, also it's the middle of the night, could be wanting to make sure it doesn't poof. 8am TWO will probably be a lot different if it doesn't.

[5KOVERLIBOR]

I know this was a ways back, and I didn't read through all the intervening pages, but I might be able to comment just a bit on this.

My sincere gratitude for your post. I wasn't allowing for what appears to be a critical relationship with the ocean, which is red-clayed landscape in the southern-plains context, from which this amateur was forming his curiosity on the subject. I'm now imagining that's important. Ha.

Is the measurement a completely irrelevant figure, not warranting real concern, or 1 of the 4,386 degrees of freedom in tropical analysis?

Again, much thanks for taking the time in your excellent response. Boomer.

[ColinDelia]

Looking real good this morning. 850 mb vorticity continues to increase with an area of 80 units now. Around 9 square degrees of 50 units now.

[SouthFLTropics]

Is it just me or is there a ULL starting to take shape in the GOM...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

If so, what are the implications of this on the track and intensity of 95L?

SFT

[KWT]

I think we are probably now getting towards the latter stages of development, might take one more big push but now this system is finally leaving SA behind and the fetch over water increases quite alot to the south I think that may well help to make the difference up.

Models seem to be getting a little more keen on keeping it over water and if that occurs this could well become a decently strong and probably eventually with any interaction with the upper cutoff low, a pretty large system as well.

Recon will almost certainly fly today and may well find a TD...who knows!

[ColinDelia]

Is it just me or is there a ULL starting to take shape in the GOM...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

If so, what are the implications of this on the track and intensity of 95L?

SFT

The 200 mb ULL is supposed to quickly move west or even west-south-west according to GFS. Looks like it weakens too

[KWT]

Looking real good this morning. 850 mb vorticity continues to increase with an area of 80 units now. Around 9 square degrees of 50 units now.

That combined with the strength of the convection certainly means there is a reason to increase the chances from say 60 to possibly 80% IMO.

[ColinDelia]

Yeah KWT. Sure looks good this morning.

SHIPS and LGEM bring this to hurricane strength before landfall on the BAMM track (73 and 95 knots respectively)
Something to think about *if* a TC rapidly forms this morning

[jlauderdal]

Looking real good this morning. 850 mb vorticity continues to increase with an area of 80 units now. Around 9 square degrees of 50 units now.

That combined with the strength of the convection certainly means there is a reason to increase the chances from say 60 to possibly 80% IMO.

I would give it 80% chance of development within 48 hours based on what we know.

[KWT]

Yeah KWT. Sure looks good this morning.

SHIPS and LGEM bring this to hurricane strength before landfall on the BAMM track (73 and 95 knots respectively)
Something to think about *if* a TC rapidly forms this morning

The thing is as we saw with Karl things can very rapidly get going, and this system probably has as much time before its first possible landfall as Karl did in the BoC...also Alex got upto 55kts when it developed fairly close to land so whilst I think a hurricane is probably a little ambitous it could easily be a fairly quickly strengthening TS IMO.

After that things become real complicated with regards to interactions with upper features and also land issues.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

AL, 95, 2010092306, , BEST, 0, 130N, 731W, 30, 1007, DB

no change

[KWT]

Still not quite there yet Hurakan though it seems to be slowly getting closer to it with every flareup we've seen recently.

[cyclonic chronic]

i think its taken awhile to get going becuse of land interaction with SA and the huge cyclonic envelope associated with it. i agree that it looks alot better this a.m. looks like convection wrapped around and blossomed over the LLC at around 13.5 N, 72.5 W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-rb.html

will be interesting to see what recon finds. if they do find a t.d./t.s. im goin supply shopping. got a bad feeling on this one for all of S. FL. IF it forms. i hope im dead wrong, i dont feel like sitting around without power for 2 weeks