WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[Typhoon Hunter]

I guess they're only discounting the NOGAPS runs on this particular storm - I look forward to when we can 100% certainly say it will not come near Okinawa.

Luzon on the other hand, still in the cross hairs. I'm flying into Manila tonight and will fly up to Tuguegarao tomorrow afternoon. Looks like landfall on Monday between 8am and midday so will hopefully have time to get into position.

I'll post more updates when I can...

[supercane]

Good (and safe) hunting, Typhoon Hunter.

[Typhoon10]

Good (and safe) hunting, Typhoon Hunter.

Good luck TH, keep safe. You work for a certain news channel dont you?

[supercane]

03Z prognostic reasoning out and quite similar to previous one (to the point of some cutting and pasting):

WDPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 705 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 152017Z SSMIS 91H MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A WELL
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING (TCB) WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WHILE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS YET TO BE ENHANCED BY A PASSING MID-LATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TY 15W IS CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING SOME DEFORMATION ALONG ITS NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW, WHICH APPEARS TO BE FILLING
SLOWLY. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON
THE TCB AND A MICROWAVE EYE IN A PARTIAL 160032Z TRMM 37H MICROWAVE
PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS
FROM RJTD, PGTW, AND KNES.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TY 15W HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TOWARD A WEAKNESS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO RE-BUILD TO THE WEST
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK WESTWARD TOWARD LUZON. POLEWARD OUTFLOW
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF TY
15W IS EXPECTED TO FILL, RELIEVING THE PRESSURE ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT, AND ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO UNDERGO STEADY
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48. TY MEGI IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
OVER NORTHERN LUZON BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72 AT OR NEAR SUPER
TYPHOON INTENSITY AND SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF LUZON. UKMO, JGSM, ECMWF AND GFS MODEL
TRACKERS REMAIN TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND CONSISTENT WITH A GENERALLY
WESTWARD TRACK OVER LUZON. GFDN HAS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD TAIWAN, WHILE NOGAPS HAS SETTLED ON A
POLEWARD TRACK TOWARD OKINAWA OVER THE PAST 3 MODEL RUNS. THE
NOGAPS TRACK CONTINUES TO MAKE LITTLE SENSE AS IT APPEARS TO BE
EXAGGERATING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AS WELL
AS DRIVING THE SYSTEM INTO A STRONG, BROAD LOW-LEVEL HIGH SITUATED
OVER EASTERN CHINA. THE GFDN MODEL SOLUTION ALSO REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK THE SYSTEM INTO A FAIRLY
STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED OVER EASTERN CHINA.
BASED ON THIS ANALYSIS, THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS A TRACK SLIGHTLY
SOUTH AND FASTER THEN MODEL CONSENSUS, SIMILAR TO THE UKMO, JGSM,
ECMWF, AND GFS MODEL TRACKERS.
C. NEAR TAU 72, TY 15W IS FORECAST TO RE-EMERGE IN THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA AT TYPHOON INTENSITY AND TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD TOWARD
HAINAN. THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE SOUTHERN CLUSTER OF
MODELS.//

JMA 03Z sat fix bulletin:
666
TCNA20 RJTD 160300
CCAA 16030 47644 MEGI(1013) 17176 11325 124/4 2//// 93112=

ASCAT whiffed again.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Good (and safe) hunting, Typhoon Hunter.

Good luck TH, keep safe. You work for a certain news channel dont you?

Cheers guys! Yeah if you have CNN International or The Weather Channel in USA keep an eye out during landfall and aftermath!

[RobWESTPACWX]

Ya TH, I'll have CNN ASIA rolling and TFC (even though they haven't even mentioned the storm). Stay safe and I'll be looking forward to hearing from you there. ( Don't forget the Yum with Cheese!)

On another note, I agree with you supercane on how bad the model is, I don't like it, not just tropical but in the mid lats, its usually off on jet maxes, advection, and overall placement. Not really my fav.

[dexterlabio]

I guess they're only discounting the NOGAPS runs on this particular storm - I look forward to when we can 100% certainly say it will not come near Okinawa.

Luzon on the other hand, still in the cross hairs. I'm flying into Manila tonight and will fly up to Tuguegarao tomorrow afternoon. Looks like landfall on Monday between 8am and midday so will hopefully have time to get into position.

I'll post more updates when I can...

Good luck, Typhoon Hunter. God bless your trip.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Today's Update...

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HnA_EMx4ICQ[/youtube]

[supercane]

JMA 03Z update:
WTPQ20 RJTD 160300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160300UTC 17.6N 132.5E GOOD
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 170300UTC 19.1N 127.6E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 180000UTC 18.2N 123.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 190000UTC 17.2N 118.0E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

KNES Dvorak at T5.0, making a concensus T5.0 across all agencies (KNES, PGTW, RJTD):

TXPN23 KNES 160307
SIMWIR
A. 15W (MEGI)
B. 16/0230Z
C. 17.5N
D. 132.4E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T5.0/5.0/S0.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN CMG FOR DT OF 5.0. MET IS 5.0. PT
IS 5.0. BANDING FEATURE CAN BE MEASURED TO ADD .5 TO THE DT BUT MET WAS
NOT HIGHER... SO FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
15/2335Z 17.2N 133.2E SSMIS
...GALLINA
=

Last recon pass showing peak flight-level (700 mb) wind of 115kt, peak SFMR of 94kt, pressure around 961mb. Awaiting new vortex message. If correct, JTWC estimate was uncanny. Also given latest satellite bulletins clear that earlier NW motion has switched to WNW, perhaps a harbinger of the expected W and WSW motion.

[supercane]

New VDM out mostly as I thought above from HDOB with exception of pressure to 963mb.
148
URPA12 PGUA 160350

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 16/03:32:00Z
B. 17 deg 48 min N
132 deg 12 min E
C. 700 mb 2806 m
D. 94 kt
E. 038 deg 7 nm
F. 133 deg 115 kt
G. 039 deg 9 nm
H. 963 mb
I. 8 C / 3034 m
J. 18 C / 3032 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C10
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF304 0530W MEGI OB 28
MAX FL WIND 115 KT NE QUAD 03:29:20Z
MAX FL TEMP 22 C 193 / 9 NM FROM FL CNTR
EYEWALL RAGGED
;

Looks like system finally may be starting to develop some outflow to SW on latest sat.

Latest PAGASA track graphic:
WTPH RPMM 160000
TTT TYPHOON WARNING 02

AT 0000 16 OCTOBER TYPHOON (MEGI) {1013} WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SEVEN POINT THREE NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE NINE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 170000 ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT THREE EAST AT 180000 ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT FOUR EAST AND AT 190000 ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD
WEATHER MANILA



Latest TS wind probabilities from NWS/JTWC:

[RobWESTPACWX]

Illgan point specifically Santa Ana looks like it will take the brunt of this.

[supercane]

Wind profile from last recon pass:


Strike probs from CWB (Taiwan):


Rob, where is Illgan Point? I looked and it would seem that the NE tip of Luzon is called Escarpada Point. I agree that the province of Cagayan will bear the brunt of this.

[Typhoon Hunter]

And right up there on the coast is the town of Aparri. That'll be the target town if it brushes the coast or makes landfall just to the east.

[phwxenthusiast]

And right up there on the coast is the town of Aparri. That'll be the target town if it brushes the coast or makes landfall just to the east.

so which city are you planning to stay at?? Aparri or Tuguegarao?? Good Luck btw!!!

[RobWESTPACWX]

Rob, where is Illgan Point? I looked and it would seem that the NE tip of Luzon is called Escarpada Point. I agree that the province of Cagayan will bear the brunt of this.

Must be two names for it, in either case, the point all the way on the NE corner, didn't Aparri get pretty slammed during a typhoon last year too?

[supercane]

Map of storm winds that I compiled from recon HDOBs:


Latest vis:


Edited to make recon image lower res for size.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Must be two names for it, in either case, the point all the way on the NE corner, didn't Aparri get pretty slammed during a typhoon last year too?

I'll aim to fly into Tuguegarao tomorrow, then drive up to Aparri if need be. Aparri was slammed by typhoon Parma last year in early October. Parma than stalled over Luzon for days killing hundreds. Looks like Megi will move over more quickly.

[supercane]

Latest sat fixes show nearly identical coordinates with Dvorak CIs of T5.5 from PGTW (JTWC) and T5.0 from RJTD (JMA):
TPPN11 PGTW 160612
A. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI)
B. 16/0530Z
C. 18.1N
D. 131.5E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 28A/PBO LRG CDO/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN BLACK PLUS
BF YILEDS A DT OF A 5.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
16/0032Z 17.4N 132.9E TRMM
16/0043Z 17.4N 132.8E MMHS
16/0433Z 18.1N 131.9E MMHS
GATES

346
TCNA21 RJTD 160600
CCAA 16060 47644 MEGI(1013) 17181 11316 12334 250// 93016=

Looks like eye may be coming back on IR:

[RobWESTPACWX]

Must be two names for it, in either case, the point all the way on the NE corner, didn't Aparri get pretty slammed during a typhoon last year too?

I'll aim to fly into Tuguegarao tomorrow, then drive up to Aparri if need be. Aparri was slammed by typhoon Parma last year in early October. Parma than stalled over Luzon for days killing hundreds. Looks like Megi will move over more quickly.

Thats what I thought in regards to Aparri, I agree, it should move faster. Good news,..

[phwxenthusiast]

hmm, it looks like PAGASA does have a doppler radar in Aparri, but they noted that it's somewhat old... how i wish they post that on their website...